134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[blackthroatedwind]

The bettors on the Derby understand the pps as well as you understand the mathematics.

[gales0678]

what is wrong with the math

if a horse is 50/1 , and the form suggests he s/b 200/1 - why wouldn't an alarm go off in your head saying something is not right here

Originally Posted by gales0678

what is wrong with the math

if a horse is 50/1 , and the form suggests he s/b 200/1 - why wouldn't an alarm go off in your head saying something is not right here

Because it's the derby and there is a ton of dumb money in the pools.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Because it's the derby and there is a ton of dumb money in the pools.

dumb $ can account for some it , not all of it , certainly not the majority of it

Originally Posted by gales0678

dumb $ can account for some it , not all of it , certainly not the majority of it

It's a conspiracy!!!

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

It's a conspiracy!!!

coach surely you don't think every horse is trying every time they run - do you really think that?

trainers send horses out to run in a race just for a run thye don't try, then wham bam , they come back the next time or the time after that and the horse wins and outruns his form and they get a better price to win

fig's people scratch their head at this thinking this horse was an underlay and shoudn't be bet, but , it can't always be explained away by saying it was dumb $ in the pools , dumb $ don't last forever

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by gales0678

coach surely you don't think every horse is trying every time they run - do you really think that?

trainers send horses out to run in a race just for a run thye don't try, then wham bam , they come back the next time or the time after that and the horse wins and outruns his form and they get a better price on the win

fig's people scratch their head at this thinking this horse was an underlay and shoudn't be bet, but , it can't always be explained away by saying it was dumb $ in the polls , dumb $ don't last forever

I think horses "don"t try" a lot less than you, or others may think. And you are giving trainers (and owners) too much credit for manipulating a race so there is a better "price ( not sure what you mean by that?? odds??) next time out. Just getting a horse to a race is a bigger challenge than actually winning sometimes so wasting a start as a set up is very risky. There may be a low expectation, but to not try and win a race or have the horse go all out is asking for trouble most of the time.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by gales0678

coach surely you don't think every horse is trying every time they run - do you really think that?

trainers send horses out to run in a race just for a run thye don't try, then wham bam , they come back the next time or the time after that and the horse wins and outruns his form and they get a better price to win
r

I've certainly seen trainers run their horses at distances and over trips that the horse had demonstrated it despises, often as the first off the layoff. Like a 2-turn turf horse starting in a dirt sprint. And running them way over their heads in a race at the right distance, with no obvious reason (like it won by 10 last out). Is that what you are talking about? Or more like putting the wrong equipment on him (changing the bit) or getting a new jock, and telling him the wrong way to ride him? None of it technically a violation of the rules, but the sort of thing that leads to suspicions of skulduggery.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gales0678

dumb $ can account for some it , not all of it , certainly not the majority of it

um yes. its the derby

[robfla]

Originally Posted by gales0678

what is wrong with the math

if a horse is 50/1 , and the form suggests he s/b 200/1 - why wouldn't an alarm go off in your head saying something is not right here

ever since Giacomo no horse will go off more than 50-60:1

it has nothing to do with alarms going off.

Have you ever been to a Derby and see who bets on this race?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by robfla

ever since Giacomo no horse will go off more than 50-60:1

it has nothing to do with alarms going off.

Have you ever been to a Derby and see who bets on this race?

Interesting you mention Giacomo, I wouldn't touch Giacomo after his derby win because you know he was benefitting from a pace meltdown, he was a very ordinary horse. In essence the race fell into his lap, now on the otherhand MTB had a lot of factors go his way, Join The Dance setting a good pace, the off track but and despite these factors I am more inclined to give him much more credit for earning his derby more than Giacomo did.