Win Willy won't be winning on Saturday

Sightseek · #1 04-29-2009, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I said it yesterday, but if you like Dunkirk, why is Summer Bird all that different? I don't think either will end up being a factor anyway, but it's just as likely that Summer Bird clunks up for fourth as anybody else.

I don't know...one seems fairly talented while the other not so much, but that is just a minor detail.

slotdirt · #2 04-29-2009, 10:20 AM

They've both only run three races and both pretty much dead closers. What have you seen out of Summer Bird that would lead you to believe he is completely untalented? He's only run three races.

slotdirt · #3 04-29-2009, 10:32 AM

I don't disagree with that, but I think if Dunkirk were somehow trained by Tim Ice and not owned by Coolmore, he'd be thought of much more like Summer Bird when it comes to his Derby chances.

Who wants to give me odds that Summer Bird finishes higher than Dunkirk on Saturday? Anyone?

NTamm1215 · #4 04-29-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't disagree with that, but I think if Dunkirk were somehow trained by Tim Ice and not owned by Coolmore, he'd be thought of much more like Summer Bird when it comes to his Derby chances.

Who wants to give me odds that Summer Bird finishes higher than Dunkirk on Saturday? Anyone?

Are you serious?

Think about who Dunkirk has run against in three starts and who Summer Bird has run against. Take a look at the 108 Beyer that Dunkirk posted last time or the 98 prior to it. Compare Quality Road when he had a perfect trip to Papa Clem. Consider how the race was backing into Summer Bird.

It's OK to not like Dunkirk but to compare him to Summer Bird or to try and make a hopeless case that Dunkirk would be getting as much pub as SB if he was trained by Tim Ice is completely idiotic.

NT

slotdirt · #5 04-29-2009, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's OK to not like Dunkirk but to compare him to Summer Bird or to try and make a hopeless case that Dunkirk would be getting as much pub as SB if he was trained by Tim Ice is completely idiotic.

NT

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

Sightseek · #6 04-29-2009, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

NO

slotdirt · #7 04-29-2009, 10:39 AM

Well, with all due respect, I think you guys are dead wrong.

NTamm1215 · #8 04-29-2009, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

Clearly you and I disagree on how many people like Dunkirk based on him being trained by Todd Pletcher. I mean, who wouldn't be drawn to a horse trained by a guy who's 0-20 in the Derby and has a 3 year dead ass last streak going? I think he has a chance but I couldn't possibly care less who trains him.

I think if Dunkirk was trained by a mid-range Florida horseman, like Ice is a mid-range midwest horseman, he would be getting plenty of support because he has done enough on the track to garner support.

NT

slotdirt · #9 04-29-2009, 11:05 AM

I think the average Derby better will care who trains a horse, especially if it's as big a name as Pletcher.

At the end of the day, I'm just not fond of Dunkirk given the price he's going to be, and think there are a variety of options out there that are going to pay a heck of a lot better that are potentially equally as talented as he.

Antitrust32 · #10 04-29-2009, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't disagree with that, but I think if Dunkirk were somehow trained by Tim Ice and not owned by Coolmore, he'd be thought of much more like Summer Bird when it comes to his Derby chances.

Who wants to give me odds that Summer Bird finishes higher than Dunkirk on Saturday? Anyone?

15-1

slotdirt · #11 04-29-2009, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

15-1

Now, if this wasn't the internet, we could shake on it.

Antitrust32 · #12 04-29-2009, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Now, if this wasn't the internet, we could shake on it.

I'm not willing to wager more than a six pack on that...

slotdirt · #13 04-29-2009, 11:18 AM

At 15-1, I'd owe you a LOT of beer.

lemoncrush · #14 04-29-2009, 11:16 AM

Clearly this is oversimplified, but if there's no "Quality Road" in the Florida Derby, Dunkirk comes in to the Derby very similar to Big Brown last year:
Undefeated in 3 starts, and more importantly, winning easily by open lengths in each start, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Not to mention, winning an allowance race at the GP distance where if you're hung out wide on the first turn like he was, you're basically screwed.

I haven't been a big Dunkirk fan this Spring, but rewatching his 3 races, I can't help but feel he could eventually be the best of this crop. I'm just not sure he'll be the best by this Saturday.