Weekend Beyers (Genl Qrtrs 95; Papa Clem 101)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not a Pioneer fan but I don't see how the results of Papa Clem and IWR can do anything but flatter him.

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yep. All you can do is use stuff like pedigree, running style, and the trainers past management of said horse to project into grey areas.

But you never know until they try it.

Pioneer of the Nile has worked nine times on dirt before anyway ... including 3 times in fairly pokey time from the gate. That was with Mott - I'm sure Baffert will have him working much sharper now when he gets back on dirt.

[King Glorious]

I don't think anyone is saying it moves him up for sure. But the fact that those two horses have gone on to win some very important races speaks well to the quality of horses that he's beaten. I'm not sure how anyone can dispute that fact. While people can question the quality of competition that IWR was beating in NY, we can question how strong the Arkansas Derby was, we can question what was down in Louisiana....we can't question that Pioneer was beating some really good horses. Whether he will move up or down or stay the same is to be seen. But I don't think those subsequent performances by his vanquished foes hurts him at all and they would make anyone take a second look at him. I guarantee that if IWR and Papa Clem had come to the dirt and flopped, EVERYONE would be pointing to that and saying "see, you can't trust the form of those Cali horses on the junk." GUARANTEED.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't think anyone is saying it moves him up for sure. But the fact that those two horses have gone on to win some very important races speaks well to the quality of horses that he's beaten. I'm not sure how anyone can dispute that fact. While people can question the quality of competition that IWR was beating in NY, we can question how strong the Arkansas Derby was, we can question what was down in Louisiana....we can't question that Pioneer was beating some really good horses. Whether he will move up or down or stay the same is to be seen. But I don't think those subsequent performances by his vanquished foes hurts him at all and they would make anyone take a second look at him. I guarantee that if IWR and Papa Clem had come to the dirt and flopped, EVERYONE would be pointing to that and saying "see, you can't trust the form of those Cali horses on the junk." GUARANTEED.

IWR is a good dirt horse-that doesn't mean anything one way or the other regarding his synthetic surface. you're assuming he's really good on synthetic, and that potn is a better horse because he's beaten revenge. but what if IWR is actually a really bad syn horse?

and you can't trust their form on synthetics. you can use their pp's for future synthetic racing, but i would never use it to translate what i think they'd do on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think I Want Revenge is a total bum on synthetic tracks.

His dream trip 3rd in the Bob Lewis was a gruesomely bad performance.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think I Want Revenge is a total bum on synthetic tracks.

His dream trip 3rd in the Bob Lewis was a gruesomely bad performance.

lol
not what i'm saying at all. but all those cali horses only have that surface to run on-i wonder how many would shine if put elsewhere? or would do poorly for that matter.
potn could turn out to be great on dirt, and turn out to be the best three year old. but i just don't see that one of his competitors form on dirt tells you a thing about what POTN would do on the same surface.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

lol
not what i'm saying at all. but all those cali horses only have that surface to run on-i wonder how many would shine if put elsewhere? or would do poorly for that matter.
potn could turn out to be great on dirt, and turn out to be the best three year old. but i just don't see that one of his competitors form on dirt tells you a thing about what POTN would do on the same surface.

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

no

i think my biggest problem about synthetics is most of those cali horses won't ever get a shot to run on anything else. maybe none of them really like it-but someone has to win, finish second, etc.

take the big cap-einstein was the class of the field, but since he had prior turf form, i thought he would be able to handle the surface and the competition-which turned out to be the case.

then you have a horse like sulamani-seemingly the class of the field. but the distance wasn't his best, and he didn't care for firm turf. he ran third in the arlington million, but moved up when stevens' horse veered out af the finish. but all of those factors combined were too much for the horse to overcome.

we've all seen a good horse who detested a surface overcome everything and manage to win. but i think far more often, you have a horse with proven ability on one surface who just can't get it done on another. curlin proved able only to win on dirt. he hit the board in his attempts on other surfaces-a testament to his ability i'm sure. but i think wagering wise, i'd take a horse proven vs competition and proven to be good on a surface over one who has never run on-especially if it's the derby.

also, keep in mind that every horse dapples out, works well and looks great-best shape ever! when leading up to the derby.

pioneer may end up doing just fine at churchill-but i'll take a horse that doesn't have more questions than answers.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

Just look at Curlin... was a monster on dirt and not the same on grass or synthetics.

that basically proves was Kasept and Ziggy are saying.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

i agree, and have said the same in the past. some go purely by the win for papa clem to say it flatters-but since i don't think much of the race, i don't think much of the win anyway-a double whammy.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

Not 100% sure this isn't a bit to black and white..While I certainly agree with most of this, you do have to give POTN a few class points.. This was the party line on Zenyatta as well until she won the Apple Blossum.. I am thinking we are all dissing POTN to much and although many don't want ANY part of him I am thinking he is at least 4th choice.. I think his last is a pretty good indication he has some class. That was a horror show and weird trip and although he was not in any MOTO trouble he certainly was way out of his desired element.. The problem is he will be overbet because of Baffert and his record in the Derby.. At 10 to 1 or better he would certainly be betable