Just when I thought this guy was being smart...

philcski · #1 03-31-2009, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wonder what percentage of I Want Revenge translates to 25% of Stardom Bound.

Probably will never find out because it would devalue Stardom Bound from the $5.7mm they paid at auction.

I'll guess that 50% of IWR is in the $2 million range and 25% of Stardom Bound was struck at $1 million.

ELA · #2 03-31-2009, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Probably will never find out because it would devalue Stardom Bound from the $5.7mm they paid at auction.

I'll guess that 50% of IWR is in the $2 million range and 25% of Stardom Bound was struck at $1 million.

Believe it or not, from the original deal, which was for 49% -- this is not even close. Scary.

Eric

philcski · #3 03-31-2009, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA

Believe it or not, from the original deal, which was for 49% -- this is not even close. Scary.

Eric

what was the original deal price?

VOL JACK · #4 03-31-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Probably will never find out because it would devalue Stardom Bound from the $5.7mm they paid at auction.

I'll guess that 50% of IWR is in the $2 million range and 25% of Stardom Bound was struck at $1 million.

That is exactly how I was thinking it through... SB has obviously depreciated quite a bit since October. Iavarone was surely releived to drop a quarter of her. Makes you wonder how much IEAH really owns of here, with Pompa and some other big hitters being listed as owners. These guys are all smoke and mirrors.

blackthroatedwind · #5 03-31-2009, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Probably will never find out because it would devalue Stardom Bound from the $5.7mm they paid at auction.

I'll guess that 50% of IWR is in the $2 million range and 25% of Stardom Bound was struck at $1 million.

Knowing nothing, I would say your estimation of I Want Revenge isn't even close.

philcski · #6 03-31-2009, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Knowing nothing, I would say your estimation of I Want Revenge isn't even close.

too low i take it?
we are talking about IEAH here... not would *I* would pay which is probably what I was guessing on.

blackthroatedwind · #7 03-31-2009, 02:33 PM

What exactly do you think 3YOs that run huge speed figures, are 3:5 in an upcoming Grade 1 final KY Derby prep, and are currently one of the top choices for the Derby, are going for? You don't really think the selling price is $4 million.....do you?

philcski · #8 03-31-2009, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What exactly do you think 3YOs that run huge speed figures, are 3:5 in an upcoming Grade 1 final KY Derby prep, and are currently one of the top choices for the Derby, are going for? You don't really think the selling price is $4 million.....do you?

Given the irrationality surround Derby contenders, no- but in my opinion he doesn't have the bloodlines to be a commercial hit sire which would push the number in to the 8 figure stratosphere. $8 million is the HIGHEST price I could ever see for him, so $4 million for 50%.

Then again, they did pay $5.7 million for Stardom Bound.

parsixfarms · #9 03-31-2009, 02:52 PM

If someone reportedly offered $3 million for Win Willy, then IWR's price tag is considerably higher than $4 million.

letswastemoney · #10 03-31-2009, 02:53 PM

Stardom Bound is overhyped but....I wouldn't say she has no chance in the Ky Oaks. She's just not the invincible filly that people made her out to be. But she has a chance....

philcski · #11 03-31-2009, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

If someone reportedly offered $3 million for Win Willy, then IWR's price tag is considerably higher than $4 million.

(1) I doubt there really was a $3mm offer for Win Willy
(2) Both have the same main drawing point, a ticket to the Derby/TC
(3) Both have similar OK, but unspectacular, pedigrees for stud purposes
(4) One ran a 113 beyer in his last prep and the other ran a 102, 11 points- 6 lengths (on a one-time effort for both) shouldn't inflate the price by more than 2X
(5) I'm not on the bandwagon of either of them so all prices in that range seem irrational

Danzig · #12 03-31-2009, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What exactly do you think 3YOs that run huge speed figures, are 3:5 in an upcoming Grade 1 final KY Derby prep, and are currently one of the top choices for the Derby, are going for? You don't really think the selling price is $4 million.....do you?

with the current market, i'd still say it's double digits for total value. wasn't street senses deal rumored to be around 20 million?
as for pedigree-big brown wasn't exactly royally bred-but for the most part, a ky derby horse can make a sire fashionable. stephen got even having a top three year old will only make him more appealing. elusive quality was still a very young sire when smarty won the derby-his fee shot to 100k after that.

SniperSB23 · #13 03-31-2009, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

with the current market, i'd still say it's double digits for total value. wasn't street senses deal rumored to be around 20 million?
as for pedigree-big brown wasn't exactly royally bred-but for the most part, a ky derby horse can make a sire fashionable. stephen got even having a top three year old will only make him more appealing. elusive quality was still a very young sire when smarty won the derby-his fee shot to 100k after that.

I don't know if Street Sense and Stardom Bound are really fair horses to compare to since both won Eclipse Awards as 2yos so have that to fallback on. In the case of a horse that's best win is the Gotham or Rebel there is a lot more downside to its value if it never wins another race.

Danzig · #14 03-31-2009, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know if Street Sense and Stardom Bound are really fair horses to compare to since both won Eclipse Awards as 2yos so have that to fallback on. In the case of a horse that's best win is the Gotham or Rebel there is a lot more downside to its value if it never wins another race.

i was just wondering what kind of money got thrown at midnight cry for part of curlin after his maiden win.
there's some serious money involved in this sport-and people willing to dig really deep for a shot at the derby. war emblem's win made people realize you could buy lightening in a bottle. trick is buying the right bottle. and there are people out there who can afford to buy up a lot of these hot young horses.
lose, they're out a couple million. win, they just hit the motherlode. and they can afford to lose that couple of million. it's like these horse are high priced lottery tickets.
also, keep in mind that hard spun was not a top 2 yo, and his deal was rumored to be just about as high as street senses. big brown wasn't a 2yo champ either, look at how his deal went. majestic warrior off one win-his stud fee was a done deal before the bcj.

philcski · #15 03-31-2009, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

with the current market, i'd still say it's double digits for total value. wasn't street senses deal rumored to be around 20 million?as for pedigree-big brown wasn't exactly royally bred-but for the most part, a ky derby horse can make a sire fashionable. stephen got even having a top three year old will only make him more appealing. elusive quality was still a very young sire when smarty won the derby-his fee shot to 100k after that.

Street Sense- Apples and oranges. A winner of the BC Juvenile, Derby, and Travers versus the GOTHAM... won by such standouts as Cowtown Cat, Like Now, Survivalist, and Alysweep over the past few years.

Big Brown- the stud deal is completely made up dollars, again AFTER the Ky Derby win.

I actually liked Steven Got Even the horse and as a stud, and he's had some nice ones in the past, but his progeny don't really go for big money.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

i was just wondering what kind of money got thrown at midnight cry for part of curlin after his maiden win.there's some serious money involved in this sport-and people willing to dig really deep for a shot at the derby. war emblem's win made people realize you could buy lightening in a bottle. trick is buying the right bottle. and there are people out there who can afford to buy up a lot of these hot young horses.
lose, they're out a couple million. win, they just hit the motherlode. and they can afford to lose that couple of million. it's like these horse are high priced lottery tickets.
also, keep in mind that hard spun was not a top 2 yo, and his deal was rumored to be just about as high as street senses. big brown wasn't a 2yo champ either, look at how his deal went. majestic warrior off one win-his stud fee was a done deal before the bcj.

$2.6MM.

Danzig · #16 03-31-2009, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Street Sense- Apples and oranges. A winner of the BC Juvenile, Derby, and Travers versus the GOTHAM... won by such standouts as Cowtown Cat, Like Now, Survivalist, and Alysweep over the past few years.

Big Brown- the stud deal is completely made up dollars, again AFTER the Ky Derby win.

I actually liked Steven Got Even the horse and as a stud, and he's had some nice ones in the past, but his progeny don't really go for big money.

$2.6MM.

which is why i don't find it inconceivable that someone offered 3 mill for win willy.

ieah is throwing insane money around, this being their second purchase in what, a month? value is what you have when you know what someone is willing to pay. i'd think ieah, based on past experience, is willing to pay plenty.
no, at this point, you can't really say i want revenge is = to street sense. what i'm saying is they are paying this kind of money because they are hoping IWR will turn out close to or equal to street sense regarding a future stud fee.