First 2009 March Madness thread

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The way I see it now there are 33 teams that are locks.

Then you have 8 teams that have a strong chance to lock things up:

Wisconsin - in with a home win over Indiana
Boston College - in with a home win over GT
Minnesota - in with a home win over Michigan
Florida - in with a home win over Kentucky
Dayton - in with a win at Xavier or home against Duquesne
Texas A&M - lock with a home win against Missouri, still likely even with a loss
Ohio St - in with a home win against Northwestern
Arizona - in with a home win against Cal or Stanford

IF those teams all take care of business you have four spots left and what those teams need to do to stay in consideration:
Maryland - win at Virginia and win 7-10 game in ACC Tourney
Providence - either win at Villanova (would make them a lock) or get one Big East tourney win
Rhode Island - win finale against UMass and then get to A10 tourney finals beating either Xavier or Dayton on the way
UNLV - win at San Diego St and at least make conference tourney semis
St Marys - make finals of WCC tourney and lose a very competitive game to Gonzaga
UAB - make finals of CUSA tourney and lose a very competitive game to Memphis or beat Memphis in semis and lose in finals
USC - win final two at home vs Oregon schools
Penn St - split remaining two games and win at least one B10 tourney game, could be a lock if they win both remaining games

Hard to imagine that enough of those teams don't get the job done to put teams like Cincy and Kansas State into play. There are a few teams (VT, Michigan, Northwestern, Kentucky, Auburn) that could enter the discussion if they pull the upset in their final games.

The way I see it right now...
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WCC: Gonzaga
MVC: Creighton

So that's 32 teams in 12 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 19 conferences likely to only get one bid, that leaves 14 spots open.

ACC: BC- computer profile sux and the losses aren't pretty but any team with wins over UNC, Duke, and FSU and finishes .500 or better in the ACC is probably good to go. IN
Maryland- similar to BC, computer profile sux and some bad losses but great wins over UNC and Michigan State plus fellow bubbler Michigan, need to get to .500 in the ACC by winning @ Virginia or a couple games in the ACC Tournament. IN
VT- going to be tough to get in with 13 losses, even with their tough schedule and some good wins. I think they're OUT.

Big East:
Providence- bad computer profile and only 5-11 against top 100, but 10-8 in the Big East keeps them in play. I think they're OUT right now but have a chance in the Big East Tournament to get back in.

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Brutal schedule paying off, they have a bunch of wins against fellow bubble teams and likely will finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. Barring two horrific performances, they are IN.
Minnesota- 5-6 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100, fairly strong, and a key win over Louisville in the nonconference- as long as they win their opening round game in the Big Ten Tournament they're IN.
Ohio State- not playing well right now but they have done a lot of good overall, even if they lose to Northwestern in the finale, as long as they don't flame out in the Big Ten Tournament they are IN.
Michigan- Great nonconf but not much good in conference... probably need to beat Minnesota in the finale and win a game in the Big Ten Tournament.
Penn State- Huge bucket late last night to beat Illinois, but pathetic nonconference schedule holding back their RPI/SOS. 11-7 in the Big Ten would be tough to ignore.
Northwestern- Sneaking in very possible, they are playing great right now and have some beef on their resume including a win over FSU. The RPI will improve if they keep winning.
I think two of the bottom four get in and will sort itself out, so 7 teams from the Big Ten in total.

Big XII:
Oklahoma State- Very close to a lock with their RPI/SOS and solid wins, even if they lose to Oklahoma and flame in the first round of the Big XII Tournament they're probably still IN.
Texas A&M- 22 wins, no bad losses, a win over Mizzou would lock it up but I think a loss and a win or two in the Big XII tournament and they're still IN.

Pac-10:
Arizona- As Uncly said, her alma mater is really struggling right now, and has some losses to some fellow bubble teams, but can get back on the right side with a win against Stanford Saturday and a couple wins in the Pac-10 tournament. OUT, for now.

SEC:
This league sucks this year. They really only deserve two teams, but I think if South Carolina beats Georgia on Saturday they will be IN. Nobody else deserves a look, including Florida.

Mountain West:
UNLV- Couple bad losses but they are not going to leave out a team with a 5-3 record over the top 50 and 9-6 against the top 100 in a strong, strong Mountain West league this year. Very close to a lock. IN
New Mexico- Bad nonconference in both schedule and performance but are coming on strong, and if they win @ Wyoming they'll at least tie for the Mountain West crown, which would put them IN.
San Diego State- OOC they didn't beat anybody in the top 100, and is probably the odd team out in the Mountain West unless they do something special in the MW Tournament. OUT

So, that leaves three spots available from outside the top 7 leagues if everyone in the "lock" category holds serve. As it stands right now, I would give them to Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, and Siena if they need it, and if they don't, work backwards through the above BCS leagues, starting with Arizona and an 8th team from the Big Ten.