Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

so for you she was a bad bet. You didn't even like her to win.

If you think she will pay $3 and has a 50% chance thats only a 0.75 roi. Meaning if you are right and did that over a million bets, you would lose a quarter for every dollar you bet.

I thought she was easily the best. I thought she had about a 75% chance of finishing top 3. So for my opinion if I was right was an roi of 1.125. So over a million bets if i was right that would be a profit of 12cents per every dollar bet.

We just had different opinions about how good the horse was. If I had the same opinion as you, I definetly wouldn't have bet.



As far as the horse being 6-5, he wasn't getting the same kind of money in the show pool. He ended up paying 4.40 to win and 3.10 to show. Here is what the pools looked like after ALL bets were counted.

why not crush her to win ?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

why not crush her to win ?

too short of a price to win. I wasn't getting any deal in that win pool.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

too short of a price to win. I wasn't getting any deal in that win pool.

ok now im lost... to short a price, if she was such a lock to you, why not 500 to win ? 200 to win ?
100 to win ? im confused, or wait... better yet... why not forget shot... and a large win/place ?

[hockey2315]

Lovely Isle was an atrocious bet to win, place, or show regardless of the results.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Lovely Isle was an atrocious bet to win, place, or show regardless of the results.

thank you... thats what i am saying....

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

ok now im lost... to short a price, if she was such a lock to you, why not 500 to win ? 200 to win ?
100 to win ? im confused, or wait... better yet... why not forget shot... and a large win/place ?

Are you trying?

Think about this example: A man in the grociery store is selling bundles of CASH. One catch!, you can only spend $1,000.

$7 cost you $6.95
$6 cost you $6
$5 cost you $4


Why did you buy the $5 dollar bundles?

Why didn't you load up on the $7 dollar bundles?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

show betting for profit is a joke at this rate it will take you till btw is president of peta to make your 2k..and guess what..what happens when your chalky fave runs out of the money......

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Are you trying?

Think about this example: A man in the grociery store is selling bundles of CASH. One catch!, you can only spend $1,000.

$7 cost you $6.95
$6 cost you $6
$5 cost you $4


Why did you buy the $5 dollar bundles?

Why didn't you load up on the $7 dollar bundles?

i am trying to understand.. i am not just ripping you like others. i just dont see it....

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i am trying to understand.. i am not just ripping you like others. i just dont see it....

If a person is seriously trying to make money in the long run, they will only make bets that they think they have an edge on. If you have a horse that you think is the best horse in the race and you estimate that he has a 50% chance of winning the race, then you would have an edge betting him if he was 6-5. If he was 4-5, you would be making a losing bet in the long run.

I have no idea whether Bobby knows what he's doing or not. But I have no problem with his methods or reasoning. His thought process is correct. If you consistently make bets with a positive ROI, you will make money over time. What it will come down to is whether or not he knows what he's talking about when he makes his estimations of what chance a horse has of winning or hitting the board or whatever.