Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?
 

In this thread I will attempt to make wagers that show a consistent long-term profit. I will show the math behind my plays.


rules:
$1,000 bankroll

goals:
+0.15 ROI
$2,000 bankroll

yes play what byk puts out..

Just play Dutrow off the claim and you're all set.

I can't get a value play I like at Belmont all day!

woodrunner just went from unbettable to completely unbettable...

Belmont Race7 $89 to show on #7 Giant Storm

Estimated $2 price=2.8
est. hit%=.8
Value=1.12
edgefactor=.896
wager amount=89.6

win, return = $200.25 ($4.50*89*0.5)
new bankroll = $1111.25


comments: I think i gave Maragh too much credit at the 12furlong inner turf trip. Never Again lol. Luckily he just got up for third after racing well off of the slow pace.

Race2 Belmont $2 place #5

very small wager here on the 2yo race , 4 entries , assymetrical win/place pools

win, return $3.00
new bankroll = $1112.25


Comments: seemed like a great value play. Expected $3 back in the place pool on the 6/5 shot. #5 was full of juice, recently gelded and well bet and faced 4 entries. His main rival was not recieving lasix. Didn't want to invest in a 2yo first time starter race, hence the "fun" size wager.

i'm on the edge of my seat.

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7
est. hit%=.3
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.315
wager amount=10

+

Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.7
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.735
wager amount=24

lose, loss = $34
new bankroll = $1077.25



Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.

Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.75
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.84
wager amount=29

win, return = $44.95(14.5*$3.10)
new bankroll =1093.20

Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win.
Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033.
Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third.
I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12

I appreciate what you are trying to do here, but it would take the patience of Jobe to accomplish this. Your last bet should have been a large show bet on the 1 or 3 as the prices were not bad for what you are trying to do.

Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20


Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.
Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28

On a four horse box for $12 with a 1,000 bankroll? Your kidding...right?