Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

win, return = $44.95(14.5*$3.10)
new bankroll =1093.20

Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win.
Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033.
Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third.
I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.

you bet lovley isle to show.. you are an idiot

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you bet lovley isle to show.. you are an idiot

If the dude had a clue, you think he'd be here doing his best Dave Schwartz or Overlay impression? He'd be sitting back and trying to pick up some pointers about HANDICAPPING from people who actually are adept at it.

There's much to be said about grinding out a .99 ROI and making up the difference in rebates (and volume). For those in CLUELESS circles, this has become the de facto way to do things. Frankly, I don't get it. The game to me is the ultimate challenge and has a certain aesthetic quality to it; it's as much art as it is a skill. Crunching numbers, abstractions, that have no resemblance to the game itself to eek out a small profit is probably something like being forced to jack off to gay porn when you're straight.

Luckily, there's an alternative to this method. It's the liberating method of watching races. Get good at this and a 1.5 ROI is commonplace. In fact, this is probably the level during a LOSING streak. Then, any discussion about the .99 ROI method is kind of uninteresting. This is something that Fischer and his friends don't quite get. The is the realm of HAVING AN OPINION.

Needless to say, I hang on every new posting in Fischer's monologues.

[Cannon Shell]

This has thread of the year potential......

[jcs11204]

is this a joke.. i just read every post and this has to be dumber then some of the **** i have posted in the past.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

is this a joke.. i just read every post and this has to be dumber then some of the **** i have posted in the past.

...which would not be an easy task...

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

...which would not be an easy task...

from your response, it seems to me like you almost agree with me.

maybe he does have a positive roi, and i wont lie...... my roi since jan 1 is not great... but i will never ever let anyone convince me that betting show on 6-5 fav. is a good bet... especially frankel today, shes was not a lock to run 1-2-3 .....

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

... but i will never ever let anyone convince me that betting show on 6-5 fav. is a good bet... especially frankel today, shes was not a lock to run 1-2-3 .....

If you want to actually discuss this, tell me what %chance you think Lovely Isle had of finishing top 3 of that race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If the dude had a clue, you think he'd be here doing his best Dave Schwartz or Overlay impression? He'd be sitting back and trying to pick up some pointers about HANDICAPPING from people who actually are adept at it.

There's much to be said about grinding out a .99 ROI and making up the difference in rebates (and volume). For those in CLUELESS circles, this has become the de facto way to do things. Frankly, I don't get it. The game to me is the ultimate challenge and has a certain aesthetic quality to it; it's as much art as it is a skill. Crunching numbers, abstractions, that have no resemblance to the game itself to eek out a small profit is probably something like being forced to jack off to gay porn when you're straight.

Luckily, there's an alternative to this method. It's the liberating method of watching races. Get good at this and a 1.5 ROI is commonplace. In fact, this is probably the level during a LOSING streak. Then, any discussion about the .99 ROI method is kind of uninteresting. This is something that Fischer and his friends don't quite get. The is the realm of HAVING AN OPINION.

Needless to say, I hang on every new posting in Fischer's monologues.

My ROI IS currently 1.5

exact math =
$166 Wagered
$248.2 Returned
1.495181
---------
=1.495 ROI

respect my "swagger"

everyone is allowed to have their own style.

We've got some people that work in the industry. There's a pecking order. Steve Byk and all these people are at the top. I also respect Fat Man's opinion. Stop being a baby and maybe we can bs a race sometime.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

My ROI IS currently 1.5

exact math =
$166 Wagered
$248.2 Returned
1.495181
---------
=1.495 ROI

respect my "swagger"

everyone is allowed to have their own style.

We've got some people that work in the industry. There's a pecking order. Steve Byk and all these people are at the top. I also respect Fat Man's opinion. Stop being a baby and maybe we can bs a race sometime.

i would also like to add... i do respect your swagger... i just disagree with your method

[Bobby Fischer]

some Quirky track configuration info that you should take note of:
races 5,7 today at the About 1 1/16th turf distance.
Starting near a slight turn in the shoot, they go about 8 seconds before the shoot turn, and then enter Turn1 at about 27 seconds. Difficult for outside speed, particularly those who have built their past performances on easy leads. Outside posts require skilled handling by the jockeys.

---
allright...
we can see in the 7th that the uncoupled Matz entry(#s4,11) plays a role in the track configuration information. The 11 potentially lays over the field in talent, has a jockey that can judge the track configuration and the pace in Dominguez. The 4 has potential to clear the field, he's in there to be a rabbit, but could still compete for the tri... Too bad Kyle Branch is on. Matz is no dummy, Branch off and Napravinik on the 4. Also Add the potent drug Amicar to the 11.

[Bobby Fischer]

Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=15
est. hit%=.125
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.168
wager amount=6

Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=8
est. hit%=.35
Value=1.4
edgefactor=.49
wager amount=16

[blackthroatedwind]

If Bellsbutthead would join this discussion I think we could safely call the Guiness Book.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If Bellsbutthead would join this discussion I think we could safely call the Guiness Book.

this is good stuff.
I'm gonna need you to inject some more NY Attitude as the thread goes on. Feel free to mush last out high beyer winners as well...

The Little Guy everybody... Steve Crist

*claps*

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

Edge factor is just Value times estimatedHit%
=Value*hit%

Edgefactor is just an easier way of saying all that.
You can use it to decide how much you want to bet if you don't want randomness to cause you to ruin your bankroll.

Value is the $2price times estimated% divided by 2 value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
So a $6 horse with a 1/3hit probability would be a break even wager or 1.00.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

will you handle this guy once and for all...

we should do a mythical contest... 1000 bankroll for a 2 week period. something like that

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser

Lose, loss = $22
new bankroll =1059.20


comments: good price on High percentage barn stretch-out in a weak field of maidens with no other big% barns, not this time. Horse pulls up after stopping badly on the backstretch.