Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[Bobby Fischer]

Race2 Belmont $2 place #5

very small wager here on the 2yo race , 4 entries , assymetrical win/place pools

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Race2 Belmont $2 place #5

win, return $3.00
new bankroll = $1112.25


Comments: seemed like a great value play. Expected $3 back in the place pool on the 6/5 shot. #5 was full of juice, recently gelded and well bet and faced 4 entries. His main rival was not recieving lasix. Didn't want to invest in a 2yo first time starter race, hence the "fun" size wager.

[ArlJim78]

i'm on the edge of my seat.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7
est. hit%=.3
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.315
wager amount=10

+

Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.7
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.735
wager amount=24

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui


Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui

lose, loss = $34
new bankroll = $1077.25



Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.75
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.84
wager amount=29

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle

win, return = $44.95(14.5*$3.10)
new bankroll =1093.20

Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win.
Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033.
Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third.
I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12

[fpsoxfan]

I appreciate what you are trying to do here, but it would take the patience of Jobe to accomplish this. Your last bet should have been a large show bet on the 1 or 3 as the prices were not bad for what you are trying to do.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12

Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20


Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.
Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20


Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28

On a four horse box for $12 with a 1,000 bankroll? Your kidding...right?