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#1
04-17-2008, 03:55 PM
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The question is for all, although Ateam is the king of responded, and then forgeting he responded, and not responding to the response until 4 days later.
Without any information my five would be Pyro, Colonel John, Z Fortune, and the last two would be between Court Vision, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, and Anak Nakal. I can say this, if Z Fortune's sheet is what I think it is, he will be my tout of the Derby, at what will probably be in the 15-20/1 range. 
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#2
04-17-2008, 04:40 PM
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#3
04-17-2008, 04:42 PM
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If Smooth Air wins I will be very shocked.
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#4
04-17-2008, 04:42 PM
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Granted, you'll still get your 15-1, but not sure that's a really solid fair price based on what he's done.
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#5
04-17-2008, 04:49 PM
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Joey, Maybe I am wrong about Smooth Air, but I highly doubt it. I agree my argument was nil Horse/Drugs, NO, not giving up, if the darn horse even runs. I get the feeling he is being entered to eliminate speed, to help War Pass, but you never know...Look, I understand his races this year have been garbage, but there are many horses on this trail that had their fates sealed for this day, back in September/October/November, I just think that maybe Zito has taken it REAL easy on him, and maybe he runs huge. I'll include him in exacta boxes just based on this notion alone, at what will be very long odds.
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#6
04-17-2008, 04:57 PM
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I agree with Spence that Z Fortune might be a "wiseguy" sheet horse if his "pattern" looks well.
Z Fortune got a bigger sheet number in the Risen Star than Pyro did - because he was one path wider on both turns (2 lengths total) and there was a 6 pound weight spread at 8.5 furlongs (which equals 2.04 lengths total) Thus - Pyro won the race by 2 lengths over Z Fortune - but Z Fortune's sheet figure came back slightly over 2 lengths faster. The problem with that is that Z Fortune was wide behind a slow pace and in the clear - where as Pyro was buried in last behind a crawl of a pace - and the race pretty much became a 2 furlong sprint with Pyro conceding a head start to the rest of the field and having to slice his way though the pack. Z Fortune is a horse who's chances I can't totally bash and trash - I just don't like them though.
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#7
04-17-2008, 05:08 PM
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#8
04-17-2008, 05:23 PM
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To me, looks like the pace meltdown scenario is about to unfold in which case I think I would take Colonel John, Pyro, Visionaire, and Court Vision, but with so much time between now and the derby, I'll probably change my mind 500 times. It's probably a little too pat though to think that it will be all closer types. Some stalker type will have to be this year's Closing Argument. Might be Smooth Air. Maybe all those long works will payoff for him.
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#9
04-17-2008, 05:31 PM
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My five would be Big Brown, Colonel John, War Pass, Eight Belles, and Court Vision.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#11
04-17-2008, 06:35 PM
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pyro question from a newby!
Just a simple question from a rather new guy to the sport.
Does anyone think that pyro might have been held up a little on purpose, knowing that he did not need to push at all to make the field of 20 ,and possibly saving his best for may 3rd? I watched his last race and I know this was defintly not the Pyro of several weeks ago. I am fairly new to the game guys and gals so please forgive the newby questions!
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#12
04-17-2008, 06:46 PM
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However, I can't imagine he got anything out of it -- so while Bridgmohan didn't need to have the horse use everything up trying to win, it wouldn't make much sense to hold him back to the point where he's not getting anything out of it anyway. It that were the case, they may as well just have trained him up to the Derby and gotten more out of it. So my humble opinion, is that I highly doubt that was the original plan, but it turned out that the rider didn't carry on with him once it was obvious that he was going nowhere fast.
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#13
04-17-2008, 08:47 PM
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Hybrid Mode
