Weekend BSF's

[cmorioles]

I did talk about it after saying that the track definitely sped up big time. I think it was the "How good is BB thread".

Given that this was the first route of the day, and the other two were run on a clearly much faster surface, the only real way to make a figure for the race is to look at the horses in the race.

You have lightly raced 3yo fillies that have shown a decent amount of talent. The pace was moderate, not slow so that it would have had a big influence on the final time. On the scale I use, the pace time was actually rated about a length higher than the final time. So, this wasn't some crawl fest.

Given that, I looked at the winner blowing away the field and the horses behind her. Since I know they weren't cooked by a fast pace, I just don't see a 90 being feasible. It means not only did the winner do nothing special (and probably regress), every other horse in the field ran well below previously displayed ability for no apparent reason. It just doesn't make sense. I'm giving the race about a 98 and won't be surprised if that winds up being a tad low.