Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-17-2008, 10:22 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Nice work!

I think modeling a Crist style pk4 play would be an interesting variation. Think it would actully be quite a bit more complicated.

Have to assign $ amount to AA series based on confidence level (probably ($1-$5). . Same $1 AC tickets as 6.

I think best part would be ease of structuring the any 2A's and any 2B's tickets. Instead of throwing a single $1 or $2 AB ticket. Thought being if you don't get home 2A's you don't "deserve" to hit. AB players (like myself) are likely wasting $$ on ABBB and BBBB tickets.

I would research, but seems silly to get so refined when I can't string together much of anything lately...could be a good tool for players with real ability.
Pat, if you give me the structure you want, I can most likely put it together within excel now that I have the formula writing down. You can actually use the same file for Pick four, although it doesn't multiple the AB/AB/AB/AB out for some reason....but for organization purposes it works well
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-17-2008, 11:49 AM
pmacdaddy's Avatar
pmacdaddy pmacdaddy is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 2,867
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Pat, if you give me the structure you want, I can most likely put it together within excel now that I have the formula writing down. You can actually use the same file for Pick four, although it doesn't multiple the AB/AB/AB/AB out for some reason....but for organization purposes it works well
Thanks. Definitely make some pk4 play this weekend. I will use your sheet for organizational purposes and see what formatting I would use for ticket structure.

I have tried to structure that 2A, 2B ticket structure manually and it takes a lot of doing (and end up with lots of tix). But it can shave some bucks off the ticket cost. Especially if you use a lot of B's.

Take a mythical series. We can forget about AA and AC's.

Leg #1
A - 1,2
B - 3,4

Leg #2
A - 1
B - 2,3

Leg #3
A - 1,2
B - 3

Leg #4
A - 1,2
B - 3

Total AB cost on a buck is 4 X 3 X 3 X 3 = $108

To me, preferred play is as follows.

AAAA 2 X 1 X 2 X 2 = $8

BAAA 2 X 1 x 2 X 2 = $8

BBAA. 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 = $16

BABA 2 X 1 X 1 X 2 = $4

BAAB 2 X 1 X 2 X 2 = $8

ABAA 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 = $16

ABBA 2 X 2 X 1 X 2 = $8

ABAB 2 X 2 X 2 X 1 = $8

AABA 2 X 2 X 1 X 2 = $8

AABB 2 X 2 X 1 X 1 = $4

AAAB 2 X 2 X 2 X 1 = $8

Total AB Cost = $108

Total Multi Ticket Cost = $96

% Savings = 11%

The dollars don't seem like much, but reducing ticket cost by 11% is nothing to sneeze at. Figure if total tickets were $175 with additional AA and AC covers, it's still almost 7%. Also, when there are more B's than example the % savings can get quite a bit higher.

Tough to zig zag. But personally, I have never hit BBBB or ABBB.

Anyone take it to this extreme?

Last edited by pmacdaddy : 01-17-2008 at 12:05 PM.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.