Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney Handicap 8-5-6

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by dr.fager

on what basis...it's easy to say a horse won't win...who will ?

This horse has got as good as shot as anyone else in my opinion.

Obviously, I don't know WHO will win as of yet since we don't have the entry list. Everyone keeps on talking about FA winning the BCC and I just don't see anything that spectacular about the horse. JMO, but I think that he's going to PROBABLY see some classier horses in the BCC than he's used to seeing.

[dr. fager]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Obviously, I don't know WHO will win as of yet since we don't have the entry list. Everyone keeps on talking about FA winning the BCC and I just don't see anything that spectacular about the horse. JMO, but I think that he's going to PROBABLY see some classier horses in the BCC than he's used to seeing.

Yeah, St. Liam was a nag....LMAO

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by dr.fager

Yeah, St. Liam was a nag....LMAO

Never said that... I said that he will see classier horses than he's USED to seeing. (Not to mention, he was beaten by St. Liam )

I stated my opinion (which I'm entitled to by the way) and there you go. I wasn't impressed with his last race out (although the track was a mess) and to me, he didn't look fully fit. I guess we'll find out at the Whitney how fit he is.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Never said that... I said that he will see classier horses than he's USED to seeing. (Not to mention, he was beaten by St. Liam )

I stated my opinion (which I'm entitled to by the way) and there you go. I wasn't impressed with his last race out (although the track was a mess) and to me, he didn't look fully fit. I guess we'll find out at the Whitney how fit he is.

Cajun, it was his 1st race since the BCC, how fit did you want him?

[dr. fager]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Never said that... I said that he will see classier horses than he's USED to seeing. (Not to mention, he was beaten by St. Liam )

I stated my opinion (which I'm entitled to by the way) and there you go. I wasn't impressed with his last race out (although the track was a mess) and to me, he didn't look fully fit. I guess we'll find out at the Whitney how fit he is.

I was actually just prying, knowing you I figured it was a confirmation issue. No ill will meant.

He was very game that day against St. Liam, I'm not very fit yet either after taking the winter off

One point, please:

There's absolutely no correlation between the way a horse works out ... and the way he performs in a race.

None ... zero.

A horse who works fast is just as likely to lose as he is to win ... and a horse who works slow is just as likely to win as he is to lose.

Actual past performances aren't perfect either ... but they're a much better guide than workouts.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

One point, please:

There's absolutely no correlation between the way a horse works out ... and the way he performs in a race.

None ... zero.

A horse who works fast is just as likely to lose as he is to win ... and a horse who works slow is just as likely to win as he is to lose.

Actual past performances aren't perfect either ... but they're a much better guide than workouts.

I wouldn't say ZERO correlation, it's not perfect, and there are horses that are "morning glories", but they do give an indication of how a horse is doing. Some stated that Barbaro had one of the best pre-Derby workouts they had ever seen, suggesting he was ready to go. Oracle knows a clocker and he has given out some good info about how a horse has worked and that has translated into on track performance...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I wouldn't say ZERO correlation, it's not perfect, and there are horses that are "morning glories", but they do give an indication of how a horse is doing. Some stated that Barbaro had one of the best pre-Derby workouts they had ever seen, suggesting he was ready to go. Oracle knows a clocker and he has given out some good info about how a horse has worked and that has translated into on track performance...

All true ...

... but how many times have we seen horses come into a race off four straight bullet works ... then do absolutely nothing.

And what about trainers like McGaughey and Zito ... who always give their horses slow works? They usually win a few races off those works.

My point is not to get too excited by workouts ... sometimes they mean something ... and sometimes they don't. Someone like Oracle ... who's wired straight in ... can get much better info than the rest of us ... who only see numbers on a page.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

All true ...

... but how many times have we seen horses come into a race off four straight bullet works ... then do absolutely nothing.

And what about trainers like McGaughey and Zito ... who always give their horses slow works? They usually win a few races off those works.

My point is not to get too excited by workouts ... sometimes they mean something ... and sometimes they don't. Someone like Oracle ... who's wired straight in ... can get much better info than the rest of us ... who only see numbers on a page.

I do not disagree with any of that...

I am not really concerned about the time of a workout, I mostly look at how it compares to others at the distance that morning. Also, you have to take into account the trainer and their style...I think you could put Pletcher and Dutrow in that group, maybe not as slow, but you do not see bullet after bullet in the work patterns and they seem to win a few races...

It would be nice to be wired in about how the actual work was executed, but that's what is great about the weeks leading up to the KY Derby, the average person will never have that much information about the condition of a horse...

[skippy3481]

I agree and disagree bold. Alot of times you can spot trends if you keep track of workout tabs. Some horses train horribly and run great some reverse if you can follow that horse for 4 or 5 races and pick up the trend it can give you insight into how the horse should run. Of course no one knows how the horse will run, but information is power.