BC: Spr; FMS; D-Mile (PP's/Odds)

Scav · #1 10-17-2007, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.

I agree that the bounce is overused. Maybe I should use regression instead because no one uses it. But regression is a VERY REAL thing when its comes to patterns, and figuring them out can help you play against a 4/5 horse that looks like he can't lose or toss a 'hot' horse because of his last couple.

2Hot4TV · #2 10-20-2007, 08:48 AM

I will be rooting for Smokey Stover, I like the lighting bolt blaze he has.

geeker2 · #3 10-20-2007, 09:28 AM

Bordonaro, Fred Carrillo , Daniel A. Cassella, William Spawr, Fred Carrillo & Daniel A Cassella

They must have relatives in Oceanport...he gets my vote for finishing last.

The Bid · #4 10-22-2007, 10:02 AM

Only 2 horses can win. Benny the Bull or Smokey Stover

Scav · #5 10-22-2007, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid

Only 2 horses can win. Benny the Bull or Smokey Stover

While I like both of those horses, if Commentator pops like he does with rest (three -5's off extended rests) he has a hell of a shot.

ArlJim78 · #6 10-22-2007, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

While I like both of those horses, if Commentator pops like he does with rest (three -5's off extended rests) he has a hell of a shot.

off the board, this is not the kind of field or distance that he can pop with a negative 5.

the key for commentator is simple, if he can clear off easily at the first call, he's golden. if not, well he's never passed anyone. i don't see him easily clearing off against this field.

docicu3 · #7 10-22-2007, 10:34 PM

Who is going to ride Park Avenue Ball in the dirt mile. Is it possible that this may be Joe Bravo's only mount in a BC event all weekend?? Talk about sentimental favorites.....the horse and the jock.....would pay decently if they won the race!!

Hickory Hill Hoff · #8 10-23-2007, 06:58 AM

La Traviata.....connections decided to keep her versus her own sex

good idea.....showdown now between her & Wild Rush, who gets the lead between these two?

whodey17 · #9 10-23-2007, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Shaggy Mane is pretty quick as well. I think a lot depends on the post draw. But personally I don't think Dream Rush is as quick early as the other two. If La Traviata draws outside of Shaggy Mane I think she is long gone.

Shaggy Mane definately gets the lead here. I also like the fact that La Traviata has a race over the Monmouth surface. And that race on 8/25 was very very good. However, Dream Rush has two Grade I wins.

Cannon Shell · #10 10-17-2007, 10:36 PM

I asked a guy who uses sheets to claim horses a question last fall when outside horses were winning everything at Keeneland (you couldnt be too wide). What about all the ground lost in these poly races where the inside is horrible and the horses will be getting numbers higher than they should because of the way the track plays? He laughed and said turn the sheet upside down on the poly.

ELA · #11 10-17-2007, 11:42 PM

In the Sprint, I agree Baffert's horse put in a monster race last out. However, I think this could possibly be a very different animal going 6 rather than 7. If he walks over the field by open lengths, so be it. Wouldn't be the first time I am wrong at the track, LOL.

I am the first to admit that I am biased, but I am pulling for Smokey Stover.

Eric

zippyneedsawin · #12 10-19-2007, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA

In the Sprint, I agree Baffert's horse put in a monster race last out. However, I think this could possibly be a very different animal going 6 rather than 7. If he walks over the field by open lengths, so be it. Wouldn't be the first time I am wrong at the track, LOL.

I am the first to admit that I am biased, but I am pulling for Smokey Stover.

Eric

I think you're on to something here. Especially considering his running style. Other horses (near the lead) can hang on for the win at 6 furlongs.. it's the 7th one that costs them against Midnight Lute. I also think his running style isn't the best for the Monmouth track. I'm looking more at Smokey Stover or Greg's Gold.

eajinabi · #13 10-20-2007, 02:17 AM

I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride

robfla · #14 10-20-2007, 03:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride

I dont see any way that Mach Ride makes the early lead in this race. There are at least 4 or 5 other horses way faster early.

- Attila's Storm is ALWAYS sent and might be the first to 3f
- Bordonaro
- Commentator
- Idiot Proof
_ La Traviata

Heck, the whole field might be faster than Mach Ride early. I have seen most of his races, being Calder is my home track, and I realize the addition of blinkers has done wonders, but he is overmatched IMO. Maybe he can pick up the pieces for third or fourth.

geeker2 · #15 10-20-2007, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride

Mach ride is out of the Sprint..

eajinabi · #16 10-21-2007, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2

Mach ride is out of the Sprint..

Damn!