BC: Juv; Juv-F; Juv-T (PP's/Odds)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There is a ton of speed in the Juv Fillies......

That race has all the makings of a collapse.

Izarra & A to the Croft will be waiting for them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Izarra & A to the Croft will be waiting for them.

It was a little disconcerting to me that Izarra got rank and kind of ran-off a little coming out of the first turn in the Oak Leaf...which was also a pretty quick paced race.

I would love her chances if she could relax and make one late run. I'm not sold she will do that however.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was a little disconcerting to me that Izarra got rank and kind of ran-off a little coming out of the first turn in the Oak Leaf...which was also a pretty quick paced race.

I would love her chances if she could relax and make one late run. I'm not sold she will do that however.

She ran in spots in the Del Mar Debutante as well. I'm not 100% it isn't Espinoza though. It seems like she wants to make an early bid in all her races, but Espinoza (who ironically loves to make premature moves) seems to always grab a hold of her just as she's reaching the leaders. I think its taken the mustard out of her stretch run.

Obviously, the fact that she makes mid-race moves to begin with puts her at risk of hanging anyways, but I'd like to see what this filly would do if allowed to blow the race wide open entering the far turn.

Certainly has the turn of foot to win this, has a monster pedigree (Affluent was also a granddaughter of the disappointing Bayakoa), and physically looks imposing for a 2yo filly.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Izarra & A to the Croft will be waiting for them.

And Grace Anatomy and Smarty Deb too..

But the more I look at this, the more I think everyone is chasing Proud Spell at the end.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Kasept

And Grace Anatomy and Smarty Deb too..

But the more I look at this, the more I think everyone is chasing Proud Spell at the end.

Gio Pointi looks like one with the kick to finish it off.

[Bobby Fischer]

It seems like in general and this season in particular that speed horses in the Filly and Mare division seem to hold better than the males.
Any thoughts on this?

Fillies & Mares have been stepping up in class and distance, and still no one is catching the speed. Where in males a class or distance change seems to leave one more vulnerable.
Again - these are only perceptions and I have no stats on this.

Still, the Juv-F does have a lot of speed and this is a unique race with a high level of quality. In the average stakes race the fast filly may be so much the class of the field by definition, where here in the BC there are several capable of winning.

[fantini33]

Take a long look at Backseat Rhythm in the Juvenile Fillies.

This Filly is getting good at exactly the right time, displays a strong closing kick in a race seemingly overloaded with speed, has handled two turns before, a fact which some of the choices in here cannot stake claim to, and will likely be ignored in the mutuels.

Examine her races carefully.

First try was on 8/2 at Saratoga in a 62,000 msw going 5 furlongs on WF dirt with Desormeaux up. Exits the gate at 27-1 and runs a decent 4th behind a few familiar names in Irish Smoke and Syriana's Song. This horse took no $$$$ in a 7 horse field with KD in the irons. What would she have gone off at otherwise, 40-1?

Second try was on 8/26 at Saratoga in another 62,000 msw, this time going 6 furlongs on a good track, with Desormeaux off and Castellano up. At this point it was clear that Desormeaux was having an incredible meet and yet the mount Desormeaux was on that day, a Matz trained horse floated up from the morning line while Rhythm floated down going off at 5-1. She ran 5th that day, closing from last at the head of the stretch, in a big field, well back though, screaming for more distance.

This is where it gets interesting.

Third try was on the Belmont Turf going 1 1/16 in a 53,000 msw, Castellano still up. 10-1 morning line........first flash is at 7/5. 7/5??? Granted, the switch from the quirky Saratoga dirt to the Belmont turf, coupled with the significant increase in distance would surely be a help....but 7/5? Somebody in the know was dropping some em-oh-en-e-y on this horse......and they were right. She made a strong move at the head of the stretch, off at 7-2, and withstood a late charge from what turns out to be a REALLY good filly in Country Star, who you might recall went down to Keeneland and smashed her maiden with a resounding Grade I win over the likes of Irish Smoke, A To The Croft, and Grace Anatomy. (As a side note, the horse that ran third that day, Mushka, runs in the 4th today at Belmont, her first race since that day)

Next out was going a mile on the dirt in the Frizzette. She runs a clear 2nd to 3/5 monster Indain Blessing, who had things on her own terms that day.

Backseat Rythym will be Reynolds only starter over the two days so the undivided attention should make her feel like a queen. She is sitting on a career performance. She will likely be double, even triple the odds of Smoke, Croft, and Anatomy. Backseat Rhythm will be the DEFINITION of overlay.

The distance will be right, the pace will be right, the price will be right.
Look for Backseat Rythym to blow up the toteboard and get the day started with a bang. I'll be backing up the Brinks truck.

Good Luck!

May a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window, and in this case, the tax window.

Later.

ED

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Take a long look at Backseat Rhythm in the Juvenile Fillies.

I loved that one in her last and was a bit disappointed that she couldn't catch Indian Blessing after that one ran her last quarter in 27 and change. The good thing is that there seems to be a ton of speed in the Juvenile Fillies race, but I'm having a hard time (at this point, I've still got a week!) making a case for a horse who couldn't catch a leader who was stumbling home through an insanely slow final quarter.

I'm sure she'll be on some of my tickets, but I'd like her a whole lot better if she would've cut down that gap a bit more in her last considering it was basically dangled right in front of her by the winner and she couldn't take it.

[fantini33]

I think if you watch her only two turn race (actually one turn going 1 1/16th) she got in a much better position, closer to the front and was able to move BEFORE Country Star, enabling her to get home. The one turn race (shorter distance) left her too much to do with too little ground with which to do it. I just suspect that she is moving forward, will get first run, and hopefully pick them up without letting someone come from the clouds and go on by. Indian Blessing put it away early that day and Rhythm did make up about 10 lengths in the last half, going pretty wide on the turn to finish 3.5 lengths behind.

I concede that she has to move forward here to make it happen, but value will be in her corner, which means it will be in mine.

With a week to go, everyone is searching for confident angles, myself included.

Ed

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Take a long look at Backseat Rhythm in the Juvenile Fillies.

This Filly is getting good at exactly the right time, displays a strong closing kick in a race seemingly overloaded with speed, has handled two turns before, a fact which some of the choices in here cannot stake claim to, and will likely be ignored in the mutuels.

Examine her races carefully.

First try was on 8/2 at Saratoga in a 62,000 msw going 5 furlongs on WF dirt with Desormeaux up. Exits the gate at 27-1 and runs a decent 4th behind a few familiar names in Irish Smoke and Syriana's Song. This horse took no $$$$ in a 7 horse field with KD in the irons. What would she have gone off at otherwise, 40-1?

Second try was on 8/26 at Saratoga in another 62,000 msw, this time going 6 furlongs on a good track, with Desormeaux off and Castellano up. At this point it was clear that Desormeaux was having an incredible meet and yet the mount Desormeaux was on that day, a Matz trained horse floated up from the morning line while Rhythm floated down going off at 5-1. She ran 5th that day, closing from last at the head of the stretch, in a big field, well back though, screaming for more distance.

This is where it gets interesting.

Third try was on the Belmont Turf going 1 1/16 in a 53,000 msw, Castellano still up. 10-1 morning line........first flash is at 7/5. 7/5??? Granted, the switch from the quirky Saratoga dirt to the Belmont turf, coupled with the significant increase in distance would surely be a help....but 7/5? Somebody in the know was dropping some em-oh-en-e-y on this horse......and they were right. She made a strong move at the head of the stretch, off at 7-2, and withstood a late charge from what turns out to be a REALLY good filly in Country Star, who you might recall went down to Keeneland and smashed her maiden with a resounding Grade I win over the likes of Irish Smoke, A To The Croft, and Grace Anatomy. (As a side note, the horse that ran third that day, Mushka, runs in the 4th today at Belmont, her first race since that day)

Next out was going a mile on the dirt in the Frizzette. She runs a clear 2nd to 3/5 monster Indain Blessing, who had things on her own terms that day.

Backseat Rythym will be Reynolds only starter over the two days so the undivided attention should make her feel like a queen. She is sitting on a career performance. She will likely be double, even triple the odds of Smoke, Croft, and Anatomy. Backseat Rhythm will be the DEFINITION of overlay.

The distance will be right, the pace will be right, the price will be right.
Look for Backseat Rythym to blow up the toteboard and get the day started with a bang. I'll be backing up the Brinks truck.

Good Luck!

May a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window, and in this case, the tax window.

Later.

ED

She has a shot but the Fav is pretty good and this one needs to get much better fast or get an enormous break to win.. She looks a bit MOTO in this race and will certainly be a bit of an underlay even with the fav being over bet as well

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Take a long look at Backseat Rhythm in the Juvenile Fillies.

ED

And I might add, that her pedigree says an off track is right up her alley.

[fantini33]

Backseat Rythym

One of the longest shots of the day to hit the board, photo'd out for 2nd, gets 3rd and pays 9.60 to do so, going off at 19-1.

I take little solace in this fact as I had her to win and place, and on the top and bottom of exactas, including with Indian Blessing.

She did run well though.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I'm taking Phantom Income with that inside speed(to hold on for 3rd.)90% chance Coa will fan lil wide into the 1st turn.Just a guess.

[my miss storm cat]

Cry and Catch Me is out.....

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Cry and Catch Me is out.....

Didn't think she had much of a shot with so much pace in the race, anyway.

[Bobby Fischer]

The Juvenile is looking to be an interesting race.
War Pass has been THE superstar of the 2yo season so far. This race should have a nice mix of styles and maybe some longshots will challenge as well.