Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

Result for Aug 16: -$157.50.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

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Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

previous results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

Result for Aug 22: 6-6-9-3 paid $94.75. So I lost $55.25 on my $150 ticket.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

Just got home, had to watch Golden Hare race. She was my single as well.

5/2,4,5/6,8/2,5 Six bucks

I try to hit these going much shorter.

[infield_line]

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by infield_line

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

Definitely some cheap races that are tough to call. But I don't think I agree about the sharp turns.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by infield_line

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

When the favs fail at Saratoga, it's simply the Graveyard of Favorites. Del Mar's synthetic surface is causing havoc with cappers. But with Ellis it's somehow the track's fault?

I've said before that I don't like maiden races on any track, but the cheap claimers and low level allowance horses at Ellis appear to run reasonably true at Ellis.

My own poor results are what they are--a fairly small sample of an attempt to do some quick capping. I certainly don't blame Ellis for my poor results.

It's certainly possible that on any given day, the 25% takeout at Saratoga is easier to crack than the 4% at Ellis. My opinion is that the Ellis 4% bet needs to be supported regardless. Otherwise, the wrong message is being sent to the industry.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

I think something that definitely needs to be taken into consideration is the growth of other betting pools @ Ellis since the 4% take-out was implemented. I would expect pool growth in many or all bets in races involved in the pk 4. If someone gets knocked out of the pick 4 in the first or second leg chances are they will probably bet on races in the rest of the sequence because they must have had some bet-worthy opinion of those races and we all know how frustrating it can be when you cap for hours and drop a good amount of money into a serial bet and get knocked out early.

I also don't think that Ellis's seeming lack of success with the pk4 is indicative of how lower take-out would be welcomed industry wide. I am certain that if NYRA did the same thing the pools would grow exponentially. There could be 1% take-out and I probably wouldn't play the Ellis pick 4 because I just won't dump that kind of money into a pool at a track that I have no experience at. I admire what Dunbar and others are doing by playing the Ellis pk4 but I think that until the major tracks find some reason to lower take-out, experiments at lower level tracks won't provide any incentive to or evidence that lowering the vig is a good move from a business perspective.

[SniperSB23]

I threw in a small ticket for my good deed of the day:

1,3,WT,2,3,7,WT,1,WT,4,7

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

Golden Hare came through fine, but I missed the #2 in the 9th.

Result for Aug 23: -$140

Overall results:
Total bets: $2116.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1124.70

Not thrilled with today's races; two MSW's with mostly 1st-time-starters:

50c each way:

7) 1,3,5,6
8) 2
9) 1,5,6,7
10) all

4x1x4x9=144; $72 ticket

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $2116.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1124.70

Not thrilled with today's races; two MSW's with mostly 1st-time-starters:

50c each way:

7) 1,3,5,6
8) 2
9) 1,5,6,7
10) all

4x1x4x9=144; $72 ticket

I caught the $14.20, $17.40, and $7.60 winners of the 7th, 9th, and 10th, but missed the $7.60 winner of the 8th. (my single finished 2nd). Too bad I didn't go a little broader in the 8th; the $3900 payoff for 50c would have been a major turnaround in my stats.

Result for Aug 24: -$72
Overall results:
Total bets: $2188.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1196.70

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Selections for Aug 25:

$1 each way

9) 2,4,6,8
10) 2,3,4,6,7
11) 4,6
12) 1,4,5,10

4x5x2x4=160. Total bet is $160

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I caught the $14.20, $17.40, and $7.60 winners of the 7th, 9th, and 10th, but missed the $7.60 winner of the 8th. (my single finished 2nd). Too bad I didn't go a little broader in the 8th; the $3900 payoff for 50c would have been a major turnaround in my stats.

Result for Aug 24: -$72
Overall results:
Total bets: $2188.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1196.70

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Selections for Aug 25:

$1 each way

9) 2,4,6,8
10) 2,3,4,6,7
11) 4,6
12) 1,4,5,10

4x5x2x4=160. Total bet is $160

--Dunbar

I didn't like the 3 in the last either, and had a similar ticket to yours (keying the 4 & 6 in the feature), but the payoffs were poop today so I'm not crying about missing it. The 2 should have come down in the 10th which would have made a pretty good payoff.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I didn't like the 3 in the last either, and had a similar ticket to yours (keying the 4 & 6 in the feature), but the payoffs were poop today so I'm not crying about missing it. The 2 should have come down in the 10th which would have made a pretty good payoff.

I like the 3 better today than yesterday! ;>) Maybe I should have cut it more slack for "off slowly, bled".

I'm probably going too thin in the last today, too, Phil. I probably should go lighter in the first 3 legs and take "all" for the last. All first-timers, sheesh.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $2188.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1196.70

*******************************************
Selections for Aug 25:

$1 each way

9) 2,4,6,8
10) 2,3,4,6,7
11) 4,6
12) 1,4,5,10

4x5x2x4=160. Total bet is $160

Caught the first 3 legs, but missed the last.

Result for Aug 25th: -$160

Overall results:
Total bets: $2348.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1356.70

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Selections for Aug 26

50c each:

8) 1,2,4
9) 1,4,7,8
10) 1,3,4,6,8
11) 1,3,5

3x4x5x3=180. Total bet = $90

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

My effort for the day.

2,8
1,4
1,6,8
5

Six bucks

[Dunbar]

going to have to pass today. In Las Vegas, not enough time for even minimal capping.

Maybe tomorrow.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Overall results:
Total bets: $2348.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1356.70

*******************************************

Back from Vegas in time for one last shot!

Selections for Aug 26

50c each:

8) 1,2,4
9) 1,4,7,8
10) 1,3,4,6,8
11) 1,3,5

3x4x5x3=180. Total bet = $90

Lost, so current results are:
Total bets: $2438.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1446.70



Selections for Sept 3:

50c each
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 1,2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x2x6x4=240. bet = $120

$ each:
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 6
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x1x6x4=120. bet = $120

Total bet = $240

Despite my poor results, I'll be sorry to see this 4% takeout bet slip into oblivion.

Good luck to Pete and anyone else who jumped on this Ellis opportunity.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Total bets: $2438.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1446.70



Selections for Sept 3:

50c each
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 1,2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x2x6x4=240. bet = $120

$ each:
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 6
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x1x6x4=120. bet = $120

Total bet = $240

6-6-4-11 paid $246.70 for the $1 ticket. I made a whopping $6.70, which looks pretty good compared to my recent results. (A $1 win parlay would have paid just $101) Would've had a nicer payoff if the 7-5 fav hadn't won in my widest race, the 10th.

Final Ellis Pick-4 figs:
Total bets: $2678.50
Total return: $1238.50
Net loss: -$1440.00

I'll be surprised if Ellis does this again next summer. The level of support had to be disappointing, although I haven't seen figs comparing the total handle to the previous year.

In Las Vegas, you now see blackjack players sitting down to play a game where a blackjack pays 6:5 as if it doesn't matter that they are not getting the 3:2 offered nearby. (You'd think they'd regret the $15 they are shorted on a $50 natural!) You see video poker players sitting at a Jacks Or Better game with an 8-5 pay schedule, even though they could easily find a 9-6 pay schedule. It shouldn't have surprised me that horse players would continue to flock to 25% takeout even when 4% takeout is available. But it did surprise me. I thought we as a group were a notch above the casino lemmings.

--Dunbar