Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary
 

I'm mildly shocked at the general lack of interest in the 4% Ellis Pick-4. I always thought horseplayers were smarter than typical gamblers, but I'm re-evaluating that position!

Anyway, in the hope of generating some more interest/attention for the 4% takeout experiment at Ellis, I'm going to keep a running total of my picks for the Ellis Pick-4 starting today (Wed, Aug 1).

Wed, Aug 1
6) 1,2,9
7) 1,4,11
8) all
9) 1,5,8,12

$1 each leg, $360 total.

--Dunbar

pick 4
6th 1,3,5
7th 1,4
8th 8,9,10
9th 1,8,10

Good luck

1-2-3-5-9
1-4-11
5-8-9-10
1-8

Missed the 23.80 horse in the 6th. (viscount and pweizer both had it in their selections!) I had the $6.20, $14.00, $18.40 in the next 3. The payout for 50c was $6012!

Result: -$360
Total amt bet: $360

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Thurs, Aug 2:

Casting a wide net. I couldn't get away with this with a normal takeout. Even so, I may well hit the Pick-4 but lose on the bet.

6) 3,4,6,8,10
7) 4,6,7
8) 1,3,4,8,9,10
9) all

50c on each leg, $315 total.

--Dunbar

Won by a nose in the 6th with the $12.40 #8;
Could have caught the tri in the 7th, with the 7,6,4 finish (winner paid $6.60)
won by 1/2 length in the 8th with the $17.00 #9;
Hoped for a 10-1 winner in the 9th but had to be content with the $8.60 #1.

The (8-7-9-1) 50c Pick-4 paid $709.35.
Daily result: +$394.35.

Overall:
Total bets: $675
Total return: $709.35
Net profit: $34.35

PS, a 50c parlay would have only paid $374.
A 25% takeout Pick-4 would have paid $554. (Attention Saratoga bettors!)
I'd rather have the $709.

*********************************************

Fri, Aug 3 selections:
(2 tickets, one for $1 and one for 50c)

$1
7) all
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 7
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$216

50c
7) 1,2,5
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 3,4,5,6
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$144

Total bets for Aug 3: $360

--Dunbar

8/4/07 P4
super multi-tiered approach.

2,5,7,11,12,13/2,3/1,6/1,11
3,6,10,14/2,3/1,6/1,11
2,13/2,3,7,8/1,6,8,10/1,11
2,13/2,3/1,6,7,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,9,11
5,7,11,12/2,3/1,6/1,2,3,4,5,9,11

total cost $232
objective is to get both of the first two legs home with 2,13/2,3

The 9th and 10th are wide open and i'm tempted to add a few to at least the 9th.

2,11,12,13
3,4,7
4,10
1,2
$48

Will post a few $.50 backup tickets later.



August 4, 2007

Scratches

Race 1 #2 Another Fine One
Race 1 #3 Music Major
Race 1 #8 Pewee Valley
Race 1 #12 Western Silk
Race 2 #7 Sinusosity
Race 3 #9 Double Lightning
Race 6 #7 Cecelia Rose
Race 7 #10 Moa Annette
Race 9 #9 Otis Ridge
Race 11 #7 Greve
Race 11 #9 Bebe Grand
Race 12 #11 Even Temper

I had the winning 1-3-7-4 in my $1 ticket. Payoff was just $68. (a $1 win parlay would have paid just $38.20!)

Daily result: -292

Overall:
Total bets: $1073
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$257.65

************************************************** ******

Aug 4 selections:

$1 each

9) 2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
11) 1,2,6,10
12) 1,2,3,4,5

Total bets for Aug 4: $160

--Dunbar

go get'em

good luck.

Thanks, Jim. If I can get past my single, I'll like my chances!

I actually played it as a $2 ticket, because I'm aiming to pump $300-$400 into the 4% pool every day.

--Dunbar

Hang in there Dun...
 

I put about a hundred into Ellis chasing various 3-4's. I think it's a tougher track than most give it credit for.... these cheaper horses are very tough to read when one is going to wake up.... and that quirky course for the mile with the chute...

I considered just boxing 1,2,3,4 post positions at the mile to see what happened. Frequency of those posts winning at the mile is significant..

I/L

going to get in on this pick 4 today with a wide ticket.

8) 1 2 7 8 10 11
9) 4 5 8
10) 3 6 9
11) 3 4 6 11

$108 for a fifty cent ticket.

good luck

[Note: there was an error in my "Overall" stats yesterday. The "Total bets" should have been $1035 not $1073. The net loss is correct. I'll fix the total bets beginning with today's post, but I don't want to edit a selections post from earlier.]

My single in the 9th led until the stretch and then faded to 7th, beaten about 2 lengths.
I had the last 3 of the 4-2-10-1, but had my single come through, the payoff would have been more like $600 than the actual $9753.

And I should note that if Ellis had Saratoga's 25% takeout instead of 4%, the Pick 4 would have paid about $7600. That's an extra $2100 those Ellis winners collected thanks to the 4% takeout.

Daily result: -$160

Overall:
Total bets: $1195
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$417.65

************************************************

Aug 5 selections

I don't know the best nomenclature for doing what I'm doing today. The second ticket is the same as the first except that I am omitting the 5 in race 8.

8) 5,6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
50c each leg for $120

8) 6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
$1 each leg for $192

Total total bet for Aug 5: $312

--Dunbar

good luck dunbar..

thanks, hooves. Dismissed the #3 (7-2) in the 10th because of first try on turf against some proven turf runners. Would only have gotten back about $250 of my $312+, but I'd take that over $0.

Now I have to wait until Wednesday! ;>)

--Dunbar

well the good news is the ticket only cost $60 due to two scratches.
the bad news is I lost because even though I was live to 4 horses in the finale, they finished 2-5.

Daily result: -$312

Overall:
Total bets: $1507
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$729.65

************************************************

Aug 8 selections:

$1 each:

6) 1,6,10
7) 5,6
8) 1,6,7
9) 3,4,5,10,11

Total bet for Aug 8: $90

101 deg at Ellis Park right now. "feels like" 112 according to weather.com. Wouldn't blame any horse for going on strike today.

--Dunbar

Someone might reasonably ask how I caught the $17.40, $9.20, and $7.40 winners of the 6,7, and 9th races, but MISSED the $5.40 horse in the 8th. The answer is simple. I SCREWED UP BIGTIME! I was in a rush on my last day in Hawaii, and must have flipped past that legitimate fav while paging down the Formulator 4 PP's. There's no way in the world a Beyer guy like me leaves out the standout Beyer horse from my ticket. The $1 pick 4 paid $863. With my "winner", it would have paid around $840, enough to put me in the plus column. Chalk it up to the blunder ledger.

Moving on....

Overall results:
Total bets: $1597
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$819.65

************************************************** *

Aug 12 selections:

8) 1,2,4,6
9) 7,8
10) 1,6,8
11) 6,9,10

$1 each, 4x2x3x3=$72

--Dunbar

Good luck today Dunbar, lets get you in the black :)

Thanks, Scav. I'm live into the 4th leg, but with the 7.00, 3.20, 7.20, so far, it may take some luck to pay for the $72 ticket today!

In my effort to support the 4% Pick-4, I actually bet it as a $2 ticket. I also took a 50c ticket using the remaining horses in the 11th. Guaranteed a winner, but it may not pay for today's ticket.

--Dunbar