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  #1  
Old 05-16-2007, 09:46 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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A couple thoughts/questions.....


4th ) Not that I am a fan of Robbie Bailes, or his record in NY over the last couple years, but how exactly is Precious Too not at least in the top four? Certainly you didn't take her last seriously and isn't her other turf race, a sprint, very dangerous here?

5th ) I'm not running to the window to play Ocean Forest but how does he not get a top four mention either?

7th ) Obviously Delta Storm is a standout on paper but what about the turnback for Pegase Jem who made the lead against significantly tougher with a premature move last time? Isn't this sprint, against a horrible field save the favorite, just what this extremely short burst horse needs? Check out the first race of his career.

8th ) How bad is Wollaston Bay that even you disrespected your boy Sciacca by readily dismissing him? I agree, however, he has little chance.
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  #2  
Old 05-16-2007, 10:27 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
A couple thoughts/questions.....


4th ) Not that I am a fan of Robbie Bailes, or his record in NY over the last couple years, but how exactly is Precious Too not at least in the top four? Certainly you didn't take her last seriously and isn't her other turf race, a sprint, very dangerous here?

5th ) I'm not running to the window to play Ocean Forest but how does he not get a top four mention either?

7th ) Obviously Delta Storm is a standout on paper but what about the turnback for Pegase Jem who made the lead against significantly tougher with a premature move last time? Isn't this sprint, against a horrible field save the favorite, just what this extremely short burst horse needs? Check out the first race of his career.

8th ) How bad is Wollaston Bay that even you disrespected your boy Sciacca by readily dismissing him? I agree, however, he has little chance.
All great questions and all contribute to why I found this string 'murderously tough'... And curiously, you hit on ALL horses that I had in the selections at one pass or another. With Scratches, they might get back in the action..

4th: Precious Too was in the tabs and gave way to Love Cove. Kat's Golden Ways is suspect to me, but seems like she has to be used.. Precious Too goes from Open to State Bred, a powerful drop, but appears no faster than many here and is likely to lose ground..

5th: Originally had Ocean Forest in and will likely regret leaving out. Seems better suited to this condition than ALW company.. Squeezed him in favor of including the KO'B price play..

7th: I can't get past the two on top here, but Pegase Jem was an inclusion as well underneath.. Don't know if the cutback does the trick for him or not.. Lack of early zip the concern. Only gave a 1-2-3 offering, so no reason not to include him.

8th: And as for Wollaston and Super G, your cruelty knows no bounds.. (But be aware of the vastly improved effort when gaining diploma off the pop-and-stop try 3rd career...)

VERY challenging set of races which could be made REALLY quirky with off going..
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Old 05-16-2007, 10:30 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.
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Old 05-16-2007, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.
Good to hear!
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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Old 05-16-2007, 10:40 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.
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Old 05-16-2007, 11:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.



BELMONT SCR/CHANGES:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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Old 05-16-2007, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.
LOL ... a couple of years ago, after I sold my private practice, I took a couple months vacation, just hanging around home. One thing I did during that time was to try and learn to start handicapping more professionally and in earnest (I will never be a professional gambler, as the time and attention to detail it takes is incredible) via following the Saratoga meet in great detail, including the Siro's broadcasts.

That was my introduction to a handicapping methodology that included rather "ruthless and calculating" assessements of a horses ability by some guy who turns out to be BTW. Hell, it worked. So my resultant wagering upon horses on a regular basis is a great deal Mr. Happy's fault.
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  #8  
Old 05-16-2007, 11:58 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Thank you....honestly. You made my day.
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  #9  
Old 05-16-2007, 02:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.
I wouldn't be too sure about that ... Post times moved up slightly to avoid the storms.

Turf course is baked by the way ... Sub-1:34 mile in the third.
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  #10  
Old 05-16-2007, 02:51 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I wouldn't be too sure about that ... Post times moved up slightly to avoid the storms.

Turf course is baked by the way ... Sub-1:34 mile in the third.
That's fast, but not insane fast; this group should run 1:34 3/5 so it's a couple ticks faster than par. How exactly did a proven commodity at this level, Sabre Baby, get away at 6-1? I'm not betting today but I wish I was.
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  #11  
Old 05-16-2007, 02:56 PM
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I don't have the pp's in front of me, so maybe some of you could help me out. Is the Belmont late pick 3 worth playing today? Late 3 at Churchill is Fubar due to off the turf in the 7th and 9th.
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  #12  
Old 05-16-2007, 03:00 PM
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ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
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Pick 4 ticket:

1,3,4,8,9,11 / 1,7 / 1,4,6 / 7

$36. Good luck to all.
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  #13  
Old 05-16-2007, 02:59 PM
peetsa peetsa is offline
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Going out on a limb starting with race #5. Single on Truman's Gold in the Pic 3 with Joyeax Ruler in the 6th and Pegase Jem and the Darley entry in the 7th.
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  #14  
Old 05-16-2007, 03:01 PM
peetsa peetsa is offline
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Joyeax Ruler and Pegase Jem are on my playback list. Both should like the distance.
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