5/16: Belmont ($44k Carry)
 

Murderously tough set of races at Elmont today with a $44k carryover the lure.. Possible off-going/OTT adds to the intrigue.. and difficulty. Selections pre-scratch now, but a review after 11:30...

BELMONT PARK


4th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3)

1. #1 Contessa entry 6-1 6th/8th
2. #2 Rice entry 7-2 4th/9th
A. #3 Kat's Golden Ways 5-2 3rd
B. #5 Love Cove 6-1 WON


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (Grand Slam, P3, Super)

1. #7 Specchio 6-1 5th
2. #5 Heretic 5-1 4th
A. #6 Truman's Gold 5-2 WON
B. #8 Ocean Forest 3-1 2nd

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #3 Commodore Way 15-1 7th


6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 7f-T (P4, DD, Super)

1. #3 Inca is Calling 7-2 3rd
2. #11 Montecito 8-1 WON
A. #9 Joyeux Ruler 12-1 7th
B. #1 Mutakaway 4-1 5th

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #5 Verona Dale 15-1 10th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (P3)

1. #7 Delta Storm 5-2 WON
2. #1 Darley entry 3-1 2nd
3. #2 Dutrow entry 6-1 3rd


8th: The Ogygian, 3yo, 6.5f (DD)

1. #4 Silver Source 5-2 3rd
2. #6 Sports Town 5-1 WON
3. #2 Place Your Bet 8-1 4th


9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

1. #5 Archie Boy 5-1 3rd
2. #3 Letters 4-1 4th
A. #2 Fighting Roy Kelly 9-2 WON
B. #8 Quahada 5-1 5th
C. #7 Ghost Mountain 5-2 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-3
5: 5-6-7-8
6: 3-9
7: 7
8: 4
9: 2-3-5

3x4x2x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


Good luck!
Steve

Card looks ultra tough. Quite a few NY-Circuit all-stars in the mix today. Plus I see Steppenwolfer slated to run on the turf. Sports Town back sprinting. Nice Wednesday stuff.

Good luck today Steve and the rest if the DTers.

Thanks!

Weather is nice now, but sounds like it may get nasty later today.

A couple thoughts/questions.....


4th ) Not that I am a fan of Robbie Bailes, or his record in NY over the last couple years, but how exactly is Precious Too not at least in the top four? Certainly you didn't take her last seriously and isn't her other turf race, a sprint, very dangerous here?

5th ) I'm not running to the window to play Ocean Forest but how does he not get a top four mention either?

7th ) Obviously Delta Storm is a standout on paper but what about the turnback for Pegase Jem who made the lead against significantly tougher with a premature move last time? Isn't this sprint, against a horrible field save the favorite, just what this extremely short burst horse needs? Check out the first race of his career.

8th ) How bad is Wollaston Bay that even you disrespected your boy Sciacca by readily dismissing him? I agree, however, he has little chance.

All great questions and all contribute to why I found this string 'murderously tough'... And curiously, you hit on ALL horses that I had in the selections at one pass or another. With Scratches, they might get back in the action..

4th: Precious Too was in the tabs and gave way to Love Cove. Kat's Golden Ways is suspect to me, but seems like she has to be used.. Precious Too goes from Open to State Bred, a powerful drop, but appears no faster than many here and is likely to lose ground..

5th: Originally had Ocean Forest in and will likely regret leaving out. Seems better suited to this condition than ALW company.. Squeezed him in favor of including the KO'B price play..

7th: I can't get past the two on top here, but Pegase Jem was an inclusion as well underneath.. Don't know if the cutback does the trick for him or not.. Lack of early zip the concern. Only gave a 1-2-3 offering, so no reason not to include him.

8th: And as for Wollaston and Super G, your cruelty knows no bounds.. (But be aware of the vastly improved effort when gaining diploma off the pop-and-stop try 3rd career...)

VERY challenging set of races which could be made REALLY quirky with off going..

Unless someone runs around the Belmont courses with a fire hose there won't be off going until perhaps the VERY late stages of the card.

Good to hear!

Unlike you I share only good news and happy tidings.

:eek: :eek: :eek:


BELMONT SCR/CHANGES:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

LOL ... a couple of years ago, after I sold my private practice, I took a couple months vacation, just hanging around home. One thing I did during that time was to try and learn to start handicapping more professionally and in earnest (I will never be a professional gambler, as the time and attention to detail it takes is incredible) via following the Saratoga meet in great detail, including the Siro's broadcasts.

That was my introduction to a handicapping methodology that included rather "ruthless and calculating" assessements of a horses ability by some guy who turns out to be BTW. Hell, it worked. So my resultant wagering upon horses on a regular basis is a great deal Mr. Happy's fault.

Riot
 

Thank you....honestly. You made my day.

The Siro's Seminar Braintrust.. Crist; Pack; Serling..

P4 Steve
 

any words of wisdom on the p4 today?

Thanks
gilbert

One of my favorite parts of Saratoga.

Siro's
A drink way too early in the morning
Red Pens
The three guys in the above picture.

That's the good life.

And it's been great to listen online the last few years, great move to get those on the net.

Yes.. Take a pass. I don't think it's worth playing in that you have to go very deep and it could end up chalky anyway... I honestly found this set of races to be a clusterphuck at 30 minute intervals.

Where was that pic taken? AARP National Convention? :D

I am going to stick with pk4

3,5,9 / 1,3,7,8 / 4 / 2,3,5
$36

Sun is still shining...

Good Luck!

I wouldn't be too sure about that ... Post times moved up slightly to avoid the storms.

Turf course is baked by the way ... Sub-1:34 mile in the third.

Here is my ticket

Leg A - 2
Leg B - 6-8
Leg C - 1-3-4-7
Leg D - 1-7
Leg E - 4
Led F - 3-7-8

Will do
 

Will do thanks


...Gilbert