Curlin to be m/l fav

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

And that would be?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

And that would be?

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

Of course! Most of the favorites run afoul of one or more...these are individual angles, not a profile!!

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

I actually think there are quite a few horses in this year's field that fit those four angles.

[tycharles01]

Wish he would make NoBiz 3rd choice. No way this horse even comes close to winning, until he shows me he does not mind a jockey on his back NO BET for me. I would take Scat Daddy over him


Also if CQ still keeps up his nice workouts would def have to put him in the exotics as the BEST Closer in the race

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I actually think there are quite a few horses in this year's field that fit those four angles.

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

OK, it's been a long day so maybe I'm lost, but how does Circular Quay and others fit your angle list with only 2 starts as a 3 year old?

1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby

Initially I thought you meant the winner must have all 4, but I'm still wondering how a horse with only 2 preps is fitting your angles.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

It's also said that it's an advantage if a horse has more points in the middle category (classic) than the others. I like to see at least 8 points in the classic category. That would leave the following contenders out of the ones that already fit the 4 angles you mentioned (I put the number of points they each have in that classic category after their names):

Any Given Saturday (10)
Cowtown Cat (8)
Hard Spun (24)
Liquidity (14)
Nobiz (12)
Sam P. (14)
Scat Daddy (11)
Sedgefield (11)
Storm in May (11)
Zanjero (8)
Xchanger (12) - if he goes.
Teuflesberg (9) - if he makes it in.

[Bobby Fischer]

I would prefer Battaglia not make Quay the third choice. I think that the public has a lot of doubts in him with the layoff. Nobiz is a popular horse coming off a win in the Wood.

Not 100% sure that the public would back Nobiz over Quay, but you would think he has a chance.

It becomes a question of what the ML Odds are meant to do - should they reflect the public's likely natural opinion at post time?
OR
- are they supposed to be an accurate estimate of actual win probability?

As a handicapper I would prefer that the morning line reflect the public, rather than be overly accurate. If possible err or exagerate on the side of public opinion!

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

It's not a matter of trainers knowing what they are doing...training is more art than science and any trainer would love to have his/her horse get plenty of 2yo racing and preps. A good trainer does the best he/she can with a given horse, usually plans made in January have changed several times before the first Saturday in May. The angles are mainly a bunch of historical "facts"...if a horse is good enough, he will break any trend...a son of Bold Ruler could never get 12 furlongs I remember folks saying...