Curlin to be m/l fav
 

While in Cincy this past weekend I heard a radio show with Mike Battaglia as the guest. Battaglia stated that he is leaning towards making Curlin the m/l fav followed by Street Sense and then Circular Quay. Battaglia then went on and said he spoke to Angel Cordero and Cordero assured Battaglia that fitness will not be a problem for Quay. Battaglia also said that Quay is his pick to win the 2007 Derby,

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

And that would be?

I doubt that the third choice will be 5/1.

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

He couldn't get through the entire field once before they reached the wire.

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

Of course! Most of the favorites run afoul of one or more...these are individual angles, not a profile!!

I would prefer Battaglia not make Quay the third choice. I think that the public has a lot of doubts in him with the layoff. Nobiz is a popular horse coming off a win in the Wood.

Not 100% sure that the public would back Nobiz over Quay, but you would think he has a chance.

It becomes a question of what the ML Odds are meant to do - should they reflect the public's likely natural opinion at post time?
OR
- are they supposed to be an accurate estimate of actual win probability?

As a handicapper I would prefer that the morning line reflect the public, rather than be overly accurate. If possible err or exagerate on the side of public opinion!

WTF? He is the worst ever!

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

It's not a matter of trainers knowing what they are doing...training is more art than science and any trainer would love to have his/her horse get plenty of 2yo racing and preps. A good trainer does the best he/she can with a given horse, usually plans made in January have changed several times before the first Saturday in May. The angles are mainly a bunch of historical "facts"...if a horse is good enough, he will break any trend...a son of Bold Ruler could never get 12 furlongs I remember folks saying...

Battaglia couldnt get through the entire derby field by the time they go to the gate for the preakness. The worst announcer out there ...hands down.

I'm a fan of CQ, but was expecting 8-1 - 10-1.
Putting him the 3rd choice only makes casual race fans bet him more, which I wasn't counting on.
With Nobiz winning the biggest 3-yo prep in NY, I figured he was a lock to be the 3rd favorite. With all the $$ being bet, it's really not that big of a deal.
I don't think anyone thought SNS would be the post time favorite last year.

With all of the runners, he would probably just keep saying "gaining ground" faster and faster until his head exploded.

I actually think there are quite a few horses in this year's field that fit those four angles.