Curlin to be m/l fav

[lemoncrush]

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

And that would be?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

And that would be?

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

Of course! Most of the favorites run afoul of one or more...these are individual angles, not a profile!!

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

I actually think there are quite a few horses in this year's field that fit those four angles.

[Bobby Fischer]

I would prefer Battaglia not make Quay the third choice. I think that the public has a lot of doubts in him with the layoff. Nobiz is a popular horse coming off a win in the Wood.

Not 100% sure that the public would back Nobiz over Quay, but you would think he has a chance.

It becomes a question of what the ML Odds are meant to do - should they reflect the public's likely natural opinion at post time?
OR
- are they supposed to be an accurate estimate of actual win probability?

As a handicapper I would prefer that the morning line reflect the public, rather than be overly accurate. If possible err or exagerate on the side of public opinion!

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Jax Cajun

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

It's not a matter of trainers knowing what they are doing...training is more art than science and any trainer would love to have his/her horse get plenty of 2yo racing and preps. A good trainer does the best he/she can with a given horse, usually plans made in January have changed several times before the first Saturday in May. The angles are mainly a bunch of historical "facts"...if a horse is good enough, he will break any trend...a son of Bold Ruler could never get 12 furlongs I remember folks saying...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

Obviously.
It just doesn't seem that Java is using them in the way you suggest, and is rather using the 3-prep angle as rule rather than an "angle."
I think you and I somer, are saying the same thing.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

totally agree AJ. you are right on point. to continue on your point if I may Barbaro didn't "follow" any path last year did he??? geez, everyone wants to look at 4 or 5 criteria and presto---a derby winner. Isn't part of the fun using our heads and handicapping race shape, speed dynamics, post positions, past performances, trainer angles, etc, etc, etc...not just falling in love with "trends" or "followed paths." also, i am a firm believer that we will find the bluegrass and the tampa bay derby to be THE 2 key preps this year....from that you can see the exacta I like....BUT i may change my opinion as the day gets closer due to weather, workouts, etc....oh, wait a minute that might not be black and white enough......haha

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

Blue Grass was a weak prep due to the early pace of the race as slow as one has ever seen. The horses did not get anything out of the race unless you call the 3 furlong dash to the wire worth noting? Horrible prep for them. It will be interesting to see next year who skips that Blue Grass to avoid that pathetic poly track. It did nothing to improve the foundation needed to move onto the Derby.

And tell me how you determine that Scat Daddy is no Barbaro? Based on what? Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was. If Scatt Daddy wins the Derby does he then compare to the great Barbaro? Would think so huh...

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was.

Oh wow! How many lengths is he going to win by then? 15? 20?