Super Steve! Super Freaky!

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by philcski

Great point, in the P6 you almost HAVE to have a solid chalk to stand on or it makes the wager financially impossible to hit. Even if there's 2-3 favorites that win in the sequence the payoff can be well into the 5 figures. Heck, yesterday at SA (NYCOTB was taking no bets for Easter... SOL for all here... I would have played your ticket or a slightly expanded version) 4-5 favorites won and the P6 STILL paid almost 10x the win parlay. The great book "Exotic Betting" by Steve Crist makes the point that in a P3 sequence your 'expectation' is 1 of the 3 races will be won by a favorite, which really opens your eyes in multi-race wager strategy!

Take Santa Anita on Saturday for instance... ALL/ Smokey Stover/ALL would have cost 100$. (10*1*10)...Paid over 6 boxes of ziti!!! NOone had foreseen the horse that paid 126.00 in the race previous to SS... Smokey Stover was they key here...Catching a price in the 1st and 3rd leg was crucial, being how everyone used SS as a single..It rarely works out this way (over 6 grand), but when it does, I kick myself in the ass for not thinking about it..Had I known the front enders of the SA derby were gonna cook each other, I would have made this bet...Hindsight is 20/20..My eyes almost rolled out of my head when I saw the payout..Sheesh

[philcski]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Take Santa Anita on Saturday for instance... ALL/ Smokey Stover/ALL would have cost 100$. (10*1*10)...Paid over 6 boxes of ziti!!! NOone had foreseen the horse that paid 126.00 in the race previous to SS... Smokey Stover was they key here...Catching a price in the 1st and 3rd leg was crucial, being how everyone used SS as a single..It rarely works out this way (over 6 grand), but when it does, I kick myself in the ass for not thinking about it..Had I known the front enders of the SA derby were gonna cook each other, I would have made this bet...Hindsight is 20/20..My eyes almost rolled out of my head when I saw the payout..Sheesh

Very good example. Using the ALL button isn't my favorite idea, and obviously this worked out perfectly with bombs on the other side, but there would be absolutely nothing wrong with using Smokey as your single, especially in the middle (which tends to be a better result than if you single an odds on in the front leg.)