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-   -   Super Steve! Super Freaky! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11752)

MOONMON 04-08-2007 09:24 PM

Super Steve! Super Freaky!
 
Awesome job Steve on Super Freaky! I heard you on ATRAB and in your picks. Thanks for the pick, Byk!!!!!! :)

Kasept 04-08-2007 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MOONMON
Awesome job Steve on Super Freaky! I heard you on ATRAB and in your picks. Thanks for the pick, Byk!!!!!! :)

Moon..

My pleasure.. Glad you got her. The horse stood out to me as I said to O'Neill. I totally whiffed underneath her, so I hope people concentrated on the win or hooked her up with their better selections in the exotics... :o

philcski 04-08-2007 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Moon..

My pleasure.. Glad you got her. The horse stood out to me as I said to O'Neill. I totally whiffed underneath her, so I hope people concentrated on the win or hooked her up with their better selections in the exotics... :o

You give out a $20 horse AND 3 Pick-6's IN ONE WEEK(!!!) no one should be complainin' about the underneath... great handicapping Steve!

pgardn 04-08-2007 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
You give out a $20 horse AND 3 Pick-6's IN ONE WEEK(!!!) no one should be complainin' about the underneath... great handicapping Steve!

So forget these amateurs you bring on. Do the show by ya self. Ya dont need Haskin or BTW...

sevennever 04-09-2007 05:24 AM

Steve your new name is the "Super Freaky" of handicapping!

Pressed the all button for the Derby with Super Freaky, thanks for the double, not to mention the pick 6 on Sunday at Santa Anita. I was suprised it paid so much with all the chalk.:)

Why do they pay a conso on the pick 6?

Kasept 04-09-2007 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sevennever
Steve your new name is the "Super Freaky" of handicapping!

Pressed the all button for the Derby with Super Freaky, thanks for the double, not to mention the pick 6 on Sunday at Santa Anita. I was suprised it paid so much with all the chalk.:)

Why do they pay a conso on the pick 6?

7,

Thank you.. Glad you got the P6, but the SA Derby-Providencia score was pure genius! That was a VERY clever play (ALL/Super Freaky) and I think the double paid in excess of $600.00! Nicely done...

They pay the 5 of 6 consolation for the P6 for just that reason.. "consolation". The bet is so difficult that players deserve a reward for getting that close and the conso serves as an encouragement to keep trying the bet. As often as the P6 goes unhit, there has to be a return on carryover cards for those that had the best tickets when there was no winner of 6 for 6.

I take it that you were surprised that yesterday's play brought back more than $1,000 once the consos were added in!

Glad you did well and appreciate you telling me about it!

Kasept 04-09-2007 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
You give out a $20 horse AND 3 Pick-6's IN ONE WEEK(!!!) no one should be complainin' about the underneath... great handicapping Steve!

Phil,

Thanks very much.. It's been a wild few days! I've learned so much the past 18 months handicapping for the radio show. It hasn't changed my handicapping, but it's VASTLY improved my selection process and especially the multi-race structures. For the longest time it was my approach to try andbeat chalk EVERY SINGLE race. But knowing that people are betting what I suggest has been a cautionary note when 'tossing' favorites and I've been much more vigilant about including horses that 'have every right to be favored'. And having multi-race and "in-race" suggestions to make, it's easy for people to util.ize that chalk in the P3-P4-P6 but try and beat it within the race itself (EX-TRI-SUPER).

There's not a better feeling out there than knowing that people are doing well from the suggestions.

Kasept 04-09-2007 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
So forget these amateurs you bring on. Do the show by ya self. Ya dont need Haskin or BTW...

Pgard,

Thanks, and that's nice of you to say, BUT...

I would never have gotten anywhere with this website or on the broadcasting front without Steve Haskin's incredibly generous support. That he and I have become good friends is probably the greatest satisfaction I have in the 5 years I've been working at race writing. He stands very much alone in the game with the race writing crown passed from Evan Shipman to Charlie Hatton to Joe Hirsch to him.

I knew Andy Serling casually for nearly 15 years before asking him to contribute to 'At the Races and Beyond' last January. His insight and expertise is as valuable a commodity as there is around the game. There is few smarter, more personable or funnier people in the game that can do what Andy does, and absolutely no one has worked harder to get where he is. I have no way to repay Andy for his contributions to the radio show and on here.

sevennever 04-09-2007 07:01 AM

Steve:

As horseplayers we are all the same. What you do is keep us in the black and make betting "at the races" more fun!

BTW my name is a horse that my firend's uncle owned in the 70's that raced at Pimlico.

The radio show is great!

Going to Churchill for the Oaks/Derby this year. It will my first time.

I can hardly wait.

7

Cajungator26 04-09-2007 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
So forget these amateurs you bring on. Do the show by ya self. Ya dont need Haskin or BTW...

LOL pgardn!

philcski 04-09-2007 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Phil,

Thanks very much.. It's been a wild few days! I've learned so much the past 18 months handicapping for the radio show. It hasn't changed my handicapping, but it's VASTLY improved my selection process and especially the multi-race structures. For the longest time it was my approach to try andbeat chalk EVERY SINGLE race. But knowing that people are betting what I suggest has been a cautionary note when 'tossing' favorites and I've been much more vigilant about including horses that 'have every right to be favored'. And having multi-race and "in-race" suggestions to make, it's easy for people to util.ize that chalk in the P3-P4-P6 but try and beat it within the race itself (EX-TRI-SUPER).

There's not a better feeling out there than knowing that people are doing well from the suggestions.

Great point, in the P6 you almost HAVE to have a solid chalk to stand on or it makes the wager financially impossible to hit. Even if there's 2-3 favorites that win in the sequence the payoff can be well into the 5 figures. Heck, yesterday at SA (NYCOTB was taking no bets for Easter... SOL for all here... I would have played your ticket or a slightly expanded version) 4-5 favorites won and the P6 STILL paid almost 10x the win parlay. The great book "Exotic Betting" by Steve Crist makes the point that in a P3 sequence your 'expectation' is 1 of the 3 races will be won by a favorite, which really opens your eyes in multi-race wager strategy!

deltagulf 04-09-2007 09:52 AM

steve thanks very much for the pk. 6 my grandson will enjoy the money it paid cause i will be giving it to him. and telling him its a gift from a freind of mine. one day i hope to be able to cap the races like you. :cool: :D

Cajungator26 04-09-2007 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deltagulf
steve thanks very much for the pk. 6 my grandson will enjoy the money it paid cause i will be giving it to him. and telling him its a gift from a freind of mine. one day i hope to be able to cap the races like you. :cool: :D

Ditto... one of these days...

cassie 04-09-2007 10:53 AM

i put in a smaller version of your pick 6 asi knew you would hit a third time in aiweek everything happens in threes i had 7 10 /11 3/8 6 157 3for 24$ but in putting in the bet i accidently put the single of the 6 which everybody had in the 6th race and the 3/8 in the 7th race still crying keep on picking em

declansharbor 04-09-2007 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Great point, in the P6 you almost HAVE to have a solid chalk to stand on or it makes the wager financially impossible to hit. Even if there's 2-3 favorites that win in the sequence the payoff can be well into the 5 figures. Heck, yesterday at SA (NYCOTB was taking no bets for Easter... SOL for all here... I would have played your ticket or a slightly expanded version) 4-5 favorites won and the P6 STILL paid almost 10x the win parlay. The great book "Exotic Betting" by Steve Crist makes the point that in a P3 sequence your 'expectation' is 1 of the 3 races will be won by a favorite, which really opens your eyes in multi-race wager strategy!

Take Santa Anita on Saturday for instance... ALL/ Smokey Stover/ALL would have cost 100$. (10*1*10)...Paid over 6 boxes of ziti!!! NOone had foreseen the horse that paid 126.00 in the race previous to SS... Smokey Stover was they key here...Catching a price in the 1st and 3rd leg was crucial, being how everyone used SS as a single..It rarely works out this way (over 6 grand), but when it does, I kick myself in the ass for not thinking about it..Had I known the front enders of the SA derby were gonna cook each other, I would have made this bet...Hindsight is 20/20..My eyes almost rolled out of my head when I saw the payout..Sheesh

philcski 04-09-2007 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Take Santa Anita on Saturday for instance... ALL/ Smokey Stover/ALL would have cost 100$. (10*1*10)...Paid over 6 boxes of ziti!!! NOone had foreseen the horse that paid 126.00 in the race previous to SS... Smokey Stover was they key here...Catching a price in the 1st and 3rd leg was crucial, being how everyone used SS as a single..It rarely works out this way (over 6 grand), but when it does, I kick myself in the ass for not thinking about it..Had I known the front enders of the SA derby were gonna cook each other, I would have made this bet...Hindsight is 20/20..My eyes almost rolled out of my head when I saw the payout..Sheesh

Very good example. Using the ALL button isn't my favorite idea, and obviously this worked out perfectly with bombs on the other side, but there would be absolutely nothing wrong with using Smokey as your single, especially in the middle (which tends to be a better result than if you single an odds on in the front leg.)


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