Super Steve! Super Freaky!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Phil,

Thanks very much.. It's been a wild few days! I've learned so much the past 18 months handicapping for the radio show. It hasn't changed my handicapping, but it's VASTLY improved my selection process and especially the multi-race structures. For the longest time it was my approach to try andbeat chalk EVERY SINGLE race. But knowing that people are betting what I suggest has been a cautionary note when 'tossing' favorites and I've been much more vigilant about including horses that 'have every right to be favored'. And having multi-race and "in-race" suggestions to make, it's easy for people to util.ize that chalk in the P3-P4-P6 but try and beat it within the race itself (EX-TRI-SUPER).

There's not a better feeling out there than knowing that people are doing well from the suggestions.

Great point, in the P6 you almost HAVE to have a solid chalk to stand on or it makes the wager financially impossible to hit. Even if there's 2-3 favorites that win in the sequence the payoff can be well into the 5 figures. Heck, yesterday at SA (NYCOTB was taking no bets for Easter... SOL for all here... I would have played your ticket or a slightly expanded version) 4-5 favorites won and the P6 STILL paid almost 10x the win parlay. The great book "Exotic Betting" by Steve Crist makes the point that in a P3 sequence your 'expectation' is 1 of the 3 races will be won by a favorite, which really opens your eyes in multi-race wager strategy!

[deltagulf]

steve thanks very much for the pk. 6 my grandson will enjoy the money it paid cause i will be giving it to him. and telling him its a gift from a freind of mine. one day i hope to be able to cap the races like you.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by deltagulf

steve thanks very much for the pk. 6 my grandson will enjoy the money it paid cause i will be giving it to him. and telling him its a gift from a freind of mine. one day i hope to be able to cap the races like you.

Ditto... one of these days...

[cassie]

i put in a smaller version of your pick 6 asi knew you would hit a third time in aiweek everything happens in threes i had 7 10 /11 3/8 6 157 3for 24$ but in putting in the bet i accidently put the single of the 6 which everybody had in the 6th race and the 3/8 in the 7th race still crying keep on picking em

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by philcski

Great point, in the P6 you almost HAVE to have a solid chalk to stand on or it makes the wager financially impossible to hit. Even if there's 2-3 favorites that win in the sequence the payoff can be well into the 5 figures. Heck, yesterday at SA (NYCOTB was taking no bets for Easter... SOL for all here... I would have played your ticket or a slightly expanded version) 4-5 favorites won and the P6 STILL paid almost 10x the win parlay. The great book "Exotic Betting" by Steve Crist makes the point that in a P3 sequence your 'expectation' is 1 of the 3 races will be won by a favorite, which really opens your eyes in multi-race wager strategy!

Take Santa Anita on Saturday for instance... ALL/ Smokey Stover/ALL would have cost 100$. (10*1*10)...Paid over 6 boxes of ziti!!! NOone had foreseen the horse that paid 126.00 in the race previous to SS... Smokey Stover was they key here...Catching a price in the 1st and 3rd leg was crucial, being how everyone used SS as a single..It rarely works out this way (over 6 grand), but when it does, I kick myself in the ass for not thinking about it..Had I known the front enders of the SA derby were gonna cook each other, I would have made this bet...Hindsight is 20/20..My eyes almost rolled out of my head when I saw the payout..Sheesh

[philcski]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Take Santa Anita on Saturday for instance... ALL/ Smokey Stover/ALL would have cost 100$. (10*1*10)...Paid over 6 boxes of ziti!!! NOone had foreseen the horse that paid 126.00 in the race previous to SS... Smokey Stover was they key here...Catching a price in the 1st and 3rd leg was crucial, being how everyone used SS as a single..It rarely works out this way (over 6 grand), but when it does, I kick myself in the ass for not thinking about it..Had I known the front enders of the SA derby were gonna cook each other, I would have made this bet...Hindsight is 20/20..My eyes almost rolled out of my head when I saw the payout..Sheesh

Very good example. Using the ALL button isn't my favorite idea, and obviously this worked out perfectly with bombs on the other side, but there would be absolutely nothing wrong with using Smokey as your single, especially in the middle (which tends to be a better result than if you single an odds on in the front leg.)