Two at Toga (2025)

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $16.00
Returned: $24.80

Extremely disappointed in New Century, came up totally empty and I thought he was going to win as they started on the turn. Bendoog was bad.

7/5/25:

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Step Forward 10/1 - The races last summer at Woodbine and Saratoga fit with the contenders here to me, in particular at this trip at the Spa had a nightmare trip and still came up pretty fast. Dirt, Kentucky Downs, Down the Hill were some crazy spots that are all excusable. Last off the layoff ran OK with a bit of a trip....so dirtied up...bit of a guess but it feels like today is the day to get this one.

Best Value: Race 12 #8 Uncle Barrie 20/1 - I know this horse is just a slow plodder and could totally be a horrible pick....if Capt Jax Parrow runs back to the last (or god forbid improves since it's trending up) obviously they're all running for second...but he's hardly trustworthy and I don't really see why Kings and Queens is getting so much love here. I don't really love any of the other logical alternatives or the firster and Uncle Barrie has just been slowly but steadily improving. Got lasix three back and is moving in the right direction...maybe the cutback is just what the doctor ordered. His races at the start of his career against Special Weights were at least similar to the efforts in those fields as the shorter prices...it's a pretty big stab on some pretty bad connections, but in this field I'll take a swing.

Not an official pick but I am trying to beat Nitrogen today for better or worse. Respect her a ton but I think this field towers over what she's been facing...problem is there are so many directions to go...I don't know what she's been doing really but May Day Ready's BC Juvy Filly effort was something, I'll probably lean on her and Oppulent Restraint who looks too slow but I think is one Chad is high on especially as the year goes along and has hinted he thinks she needs the distance.

Also, one more chance to unofficially look stupid but I don't see why everyone seems to prefer Intellect to Donegal Momentum. I get the racing dynamics part of it but I thought DM finished up great and was not ever threatened/might not let Intellect by if it came to it...again, I get it but I think DM is trending upward and really nice, really love the stride and think there is yet more upside. Mountain Bear is who I consider the main danger (and I'll await the return of Nantasket Beach who I was really intrigued with).

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Wagered: $16.00
Returned: $24.80

Extremely disappointed in New Century, came up totally empty and I thought he was going to win as they started on the turn. Bendoog was bad.

7/5/25:

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Step Forward 10/1 - The races last summer at Woodbine and Saratoga fit with the contenders here to me, in particular at this trip at the Spa had a nightmare trip and still came up pretty fast. Dirt, Kentucky Downs, Down the Hill were some crazy spots that are all excusable. Last off the layoff ran OK with a bit of a trip....so dirtied up...bit of a guess but it feels like today is the day to get this one.

Best Value: Race 12 #8 Uncle Barrie 20/1 - I know this horse is just a slow plodder and could totally be a horrible pick....if Capt Jax Parrow runs back to the last (or god forbid improves since it's trending up) obviously they're all running for second...but he's hardly trustworthy and I don't really see why Kings and Queens is getting so much love here. I don't really love any of the other logical alternatives or the firster and Uncle Barrie has just been slowly but steadily improving. Got lasix three back and is moving in the right direction...maybe the cutback is just what the doctor ordered. His races at the start of his career against Special Weights were at least similar to the efforts in those fields as the shorter prices...it's a pretty big stab on some pretty bad connections, but in this field I'll take a swing.

Not an official pick but I am trying to beat Nitrogen today for better or worse. Respect her a ton but I think this field towers over what she's been facing...problem is there are so many directions to go...I don't know what she's been doing really but May Day Ready's BC Juvy Filly effort was something, I'll probably lean on her and Oppulent Restraint who looks too slow but I think is one Chad is high on especially as the year goes along and has hinted he thinks she needs the distance.

Also, one more chance to unofficially look stupid but I don't see why everyone seems to prefer Intellect to Donegal Momentum. I get the racing dynamics part of it but I thought DM finished up great and was not ever threatened/might not let Intellect by if it came to it...again, I get it but I think DM is trending upward and really nice, really love the stride and think there is yet more upside. Mountain Bear is who I consider the main danger (and I'll await the return of Nantasket Beach who I was really intrigued with).

Good luck everyone.

This is a redboard but I just didn’t like the pace setup for DM that race. I had tossed DM and bet Intellect and Think Big in all my horizontals with a few bets with Mountain Bear.

I think Opulent Restraint will be a player going forward. That was a nice race out of her yesterday.