Secret Oath

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

You're right. She's not yet as accomplished as RAGS TO RICHES.

I said she "might" be that good.

Let's see how the rest of season and perhaps next year shakes out

By June 7 2022 Secret Oats will have won a single G1 in her career. I am not knocking her she is a really nice filly. By June 7 07 Rags had 4 G1 wins including beating Curlin. I don't know the Thorograph figs of either but the BSFs are much faster for Rags. I am not sure Secret Oats will ever race in 3 more grade 1's nevermind win them. If I was making a future line for someone who wanted to wager that Secret Oats would end her career with 4 g1 wins I would say the number would be at least 20/1

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

By June 7 2022 Secret Oats will have won a single G1 in her career. I am not knocking her she is a really nice filly. By June 7 07 Rags had 4 G1 wins including beating Curlin. I don't know the Thorograph figs of either but the BSFs are much faster for Rags. I am not sure Secret Oats will ever race in 3 more grade 1's nevermind win them. If I was making a future line for someone who wanted to wager that Secret Oats would end her career with 4 g1 wins I would say the number would be at least 20/1

To be fair, only two of those four Grade 1 wins for Rags to Riches are still Grade 1 races.

However, Rags to Riches would have crushed Secret Oath like a grape. No sane person would see it otherwise.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be fair, only two of those four Grade 1 wins for Rags to Riches are still Grade 1 races.

However, Rags to Riches would have crushed Secret Oath like a grape. No sane person would see it otherwise.

Check with Jerry and get back to us.lol

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

By June 7 2022 Secret Oats will have won a single G1 in her career. I am not knocking her she is a really nice filly. By June 7 07 Rags had 4 G1 wins including beating Curlin.

You're getting a little sidetracked from the overall theme of this thread, Freddy.

The head-to-head between Rags to Riches and Secret Oath is a side issue at best.

What we need to figure out is if anyone "called" Rags To Riches a potential superstar after her Churchill debut or even her maiden victory.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You're getting a little sidetracked from the overall theme of this thread, Freddy.

The head-to-head between Rags to Riches and Secret Oath is a side issue at best.

What we need to figure out is if anyone "called" Rags To Riches a potential superstar after her Churchill debut or even her maiden victory.

Is Superstar > or < Generational Talent ? Vic jumped the shark and for a guy who is a good handicapper, it's hard to understand. You don't have to be the first to say something outlandish to increase your brand or make yourself seem smart. The funny part is DWL has raced Secret Oats in great spots and she has had real shots.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Is Superstar > or < Generational Talent ? Vic jumped the shark and for a guy who is a good handicapper, it's hard to understand. You don't have to be the first to say something outlandish to increase your brand or make yourself seem smart. The funny part is DWL has raced Secret Oats in great spots and she has had real shots.

It’s really not that hard to understand if you look at his body of work.

Good point about Lukas though. For a guy known for throwing horses to the wolves sometimes (with decent results) both times she has tried males were winnable spots if she was good enough.

She’s not, which is fine. She’s still pretty good.

Originally Posted by freddymo

Is Superstar > or < Generational Talent ? Vic jumped the shark and for a guy who is a good handicapper, it's hard to understand. You don't have to be the first to say something outlandish to increase your brand or make yourself seem smart. The funny part is DWL has raced Secret Oats in great spots and she has had real shots.

Freddy, when Secret Oats won the allowance race at OP. The next day on the show with Nancy Holthus I said I thought she could become a "superstar" Since that day she's won three Graded Stakes including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She also finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and 5th in a Classic The Preakness.

How is that jumping the Shark?

Seems like a pretty good call after a win in a 6 horse first allowance condition race?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Freddy, when Secret Oats won the allowance race at OP. The next day on the show with Nancy Holthus I said I thought she could become a "superstar" Since that day she's won three Graded Stakes including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She also finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and 5th in a Classic The Preakness.

How is that jumping the Shark?

Seems like a pretty good call after a win in a 6 horse first allowance condition race?

She's won two graded stakes.

She's not a superstar.

Congrats on watching a horse win by 8 and figuring out she's pretty good. Is that what this is all about? You needing people to recognize your opinion?

Originally Posted by Dahoss

She's won two graded stakes.

She's not a superstar.

Congrats on watching a horse win by 8 and figure out she's pretty good. Is that what this is all about? You needing people to recognize your opinion?

It was only TWO Graded Stakes?

Sorry my mistake.

If she's not a superstar. She's close and still could be.

There have been lot's of 1st allowance condition races. I didn't say anything about any of those.

In fact the only two I have made predictions about were Secret Oath and Zenyatta.

As for you saying I need people to recognize my opinion. That's nonsense. Just not true.

I love having an opinion and sharing it. That's what we do.

My opinion and handicapping successes speak for themselves.

PLEASE KNOW. I still don't care what you say about me. NEVER HAVE. NEVER WILL.

That's never going to change.

Please just let me make some posts that don't involve you. Without your man crush need to always make it personal and about me.

PLEASE!

ABOUT 2 MINS AFTER I MADE THIS POST I SAW THE AMAZING WORDS STEVE KERR MADE ABOUT THE SHOOTING TODAY IN TEXAS. OMG DID IT RESONATE WITH ME HOW INCREDIBLY UNIMPORTANT ALL THE CRAP ON THIS BOARD IS. OF COURSE THAT DOESN'T EVEN NEED TO BE SAID. MY HEART IS BROKEN ABOUT THOSE CHILDREN WHO WERE NEEDLESSLY SLAUGHTERED. I'M CALLING UPON "EVERYONE" WHO HAS EVER WATCHED A HORSE RACE. TAKE TIME TO REFLECT, PRAY AND THINK WHAT ALL OF US CAN DO AS INDIVIDUALS TO HELP STOP THESE TERRIBLE TRAGEDYS. I'M GOING TO WALK AWAY FOR A FEWS DAYS. I WISH ALL OF YOU, INCLUDING DA HOSS NOTHING BUT THE BEST. I SINCERELY HOPE NOTHING LIKE THIS BEFALLS ANYONE ANY OF YOU KNOW. RIP

[Dahoss]

Don't care what I have to say, but NEED to respond to me.

You're not fooling anyone Vic.

You've mentioned your Zenyatta prediction a few times now. No one cares except for you.

This, like EVERYTHING you do online is about your ego and your desperate need to feed it.

Again, you're not fooling anyone here.

The sooner you realize it, the less you'll embarrass yourself.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

ABOUT 2 MINS AFTER I MADE THIS POST I SAW THE AMAZING WORDS STEVE KERR MADE ABOUT THE SHOOTING TODAY IN TEXAS. OMG DID IT RESONATE WITH ME HOW INCREDIBLY UNIMPORTANT ALL THE CRAP ON THIS BOARD IS. OF COURSE THAT DOESN'T EVEN NEED TO BE SAID. MY HEART IS BROKEN ABOUT THOSE CHILDREN WHO WERE NEEDLESSLY SLAUGHTERED. I'M CALLING UPON "EVERYONE" WHO HAS EVER WATCHED A HORSE RACE. TAKE TIME TO REFLECT, PRAY AND THINK WHAT ALL OF US CAN DO AS INDIVIDUALS TO HELP STOP THESE TERRIBLE TRAGEDYS. I'M GOING TO WALK AWAY FOR A FEWS DAYS. I WISH ALL OF YOU, INCLUDING DA HOSS NOTHING BUT THE BEST. I SINCERELY HOPE NOTHING LIKE THIS BEFALLS ANYONE ANY OF YOU KNOW. RIP

You’re calling upon everyone who has ever watched a horse race?

You’re too much Vic.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Seems like a pretty good call after a win in a 6 horse first allowance condition race?

There have been lot's of 1st allowance condition races. I didn't say anything about any of those.

Secret Oath never won a first condition allowance race never mind one composed of only 6 horses.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Freddy, when Secret Oats won the allowance race at OP. The next day on the show with Nancy Holthus I said I thought she could become a "superstar" Since that day she's won three Graded Stakes including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She also finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and 5th in a Classic The Preakness.

How is that jumping the Shark?

Seems like a pretty good call after a win in a 6 horse first allowance condition race?

I remember a race in NY, the colt was Half Ours and it was a fall two-year-old stakes race that he had just crushed in I texted (on my blackberry) a student of racing and said that was incredible and that horse would win the Derby yada yada. The response from the student of the game was sobering. He explained the race was around 1 turn and other important reasons to be cautious then he called me an idiot (not really) then I learned you have to listen to people who earned being listened to. My suggestion is to listen vs. defend the indefensible. I promise this will help you're handicapping not just in racing but in life.

[jms62]

A "Generation" is defined as 20-30 years so lets middle that to 25 years... Who we kicking out to let Secret Oath in? Seems to me she lost any chance of entering this group in the Ark Derby.... Laughable that we need to find 3 or 4 GOATS a year... Diminishes it

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

A "Generation" is defined as 20-30 years so lets middle that to 25 years... Who we kicking out to let Secret Oath in? Seems to me she lost any chance of entering this group in the Ark Derby.... Laughable that we need to find 3 or 4 GOATS a year... Diminishes it

That's the way I see it as well. I also don't understand the hurry. Let's see how her career plays out.

At this point, is she better than Malathaat was last year? I don't see it, and with all due respect, to Malathaat, she hardly feels like a particularly memorable champion.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by jms62

A "Generation" is defined as 20-30 years so lets middle that to 25 years... Who we kicking out to let Secret Oath in? Seems to me she lost any chance of entering this group in the Ark Derby.... Laughable that we need to find 3 or 4 GOATS a year... Diminishes it

Absolutely. Nothing wrong with thinking you may be seeing something special and proclaiming it early. But once the evidence to the contrary kicks in and starts building up, to quote the great American philosopher Kenny Rogers, “you gotta know when to fold them.”

[Dahoss]

Are we still thinking Secret Oath is a generational talent?

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Are we still thinking Secret Oath is a generational talent?

Her only losses are to Cyberknife, who just defeated two super horses, and a filly that should have won the Belmont. The jury is still out. This will transition nicely to a conversation about Cyberknife’s chances for top 3YO male.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by freddymo

By June 7 2022 Secret Oats will have won a single G1 in her career. I am not knocking her she is a really nice filly. By June 7 07 Rags had 4 G1 wins including beating Curlin. I don't know the Thorograph figs of either but the BSFs are much faster for Rags. I am not sure Secret Oats will ever race in 3 more grade 1's nevermind win them. If I was making a future line for someone who wanted to wager that Secret Oats would end her career with 4 g1 wins I would say the number would be at least 20/1

Songbird had 4 grade 1 wins by April 9th and 5 more after that. It should have been 7 more, if Mikey took her out see Forever Unbridled and the placing judges got the Breeders cup right.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Songbird had 4 grade 1 wins by April 9th and 5 more after that. It should have been 7 more, if Mikey took her out see Forever Unbridled and the placing judges got the Breeders cup right.

Songbird was a heck of a 2-year-old filly. I bet Forever Unbridled (redboard alert). Dan did you know there is a race of man that lives in the trees?