Two at Toga - 2021 edition

moses · #24 08-19-2021, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Well, my top two picks both scratched out. My alternate best bet Blewitt was able to wire the field as expected. Derrynane didn't have a great start and was never able to recover. I'm now at:

Wagered: $168.00
Returned: $82.50

Best bet: Race 4 - #1 Misty Veil, 4/1 ML (Amoss/I.Ortiz). The favorite #5 More Moonshine could be a very good horse but she benefited from a pace that fell apart in her impressive maiden debut and I can't justify betting her at even money odds. She also now will go around two turns for the first time, which distance may not be an issue for her, but I'm not sure I see much pace signed on in here and I expect the #1 Misty Veil to find herself alone on the lead. I believe Misty Veil is an improving 3 year old and should be able to repeat her last performance, especially if we get a wet track given the weather forecast.

Best value: Race 2 - #4 Osbourne, 8/1 ML (Moquett/Saez). I could be wrong but I'm not sold at all on the ML favorite in this race, the #7 Big Scully and actually slightly prefer the other horse coming out of that race - the #2 Sailor Speed. But I actually don't really like either of the horses with experience and prefer to go with a first time starter here. All of them provide a little bit of intrigue but the horse that really catches my eye is the #4 Osbourne who draws Saez aboard and was shipped to Saratoga from Ellis Park where he put in a bullet workout on July 22. Moquett has yet to win a race this meet but I think he's got a good chance to win this one.

Osbourne is scratched so I’ll switch my best value pick to another Ron Moquett horse - Race 5 #4 Sarah Harper, 8/1 ML. Her sire won multiple graded stakes on turf in Australia at 2 and her dam broke her maiden at 2 as well so I’m hoping some of that precocity passed on to her. The recent workout is good and Irad is aboard. There are a few good looking horses in this race so this is really a tough assignment for her…but it also means she should be a pretty nice price.