Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Moses, Best Bet should be the horse you think is most likely to win for the day, price shouldn't matter.
Just my opinion. Good luck in your picks and may you be profitable. Also congrats on new baby.

Originally Posted by jms62

I would say that would be "Lock of Day" and you should be hitting that at least 50% of the time and even at that rate you will lose money. "Best Bets" odds often leak up in these types of threads as guys get underwater and try to get out for the meet. If you can hit that "Lock of Day" at 50% and use it to key a Double or Exacta then you can build a successful strategy. Using in Tri's Pick3-4-5 is much harder though IMO as you have more places to stumble.

I think, in my mind, I typically consider the "best bet" a horse that I'd place a win wager on and also construct some vertical or horizontal tickets around it. A good example of this would have been the horse Quiberon Bay the other day at Monmouth. I had bet the horse to win, exacta on top, and singled in my Pick 5. The horse was something like 9/2 ML and went off at 5/2.

I think last year I got myself in trouble trying to pick horses "most likely" to win, and they often ran 2nd and wouldn't have paid well anyway.