5/29: Churchill Downs (5th-11th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: Audubon, 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Well matched group with modest amount of speed involved..

Best Value: #6 Cellist 8-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #1 Palazzi 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Like the King 7-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Royal Prince 3-1 3rd


6th: Blame, 4+, 9f (.20 'Must Pay' Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Derby City P6 Force Out ($150k C/O) Starts Here..

Most Likely: #2 Sprawl 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 South Bend 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Night Ops 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Silver Dust Gate SCR


7th: Shawnee, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$73k P5 C/O Starts Here..

Envoutante has the glaring Falls City effort in November that makes her look imposing, but other than that performance, she's not much different than the next 3-4 candidates. Issue centers on your Pick-X budgets and feeling like you need a lean in this spot with several contentious races to follow..

Most Likely: #7 Envoutante 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Istan Council 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Miss Bigly 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 La Renoleta 8-1 7th


CHURCHILL 8th: Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Entire field is separated by 1.5L making this all about pace and trip..

Best Value: #2 Munnyfor Ro 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Gam's Mission 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Barista 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Flown 9-2 3rd


P4 Grid:

5: 1-2-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
6: 2-6 (A), 3-7/SCR (B), 1-4-5 (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 2-3-4 (C)
8: 2-5-7 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
C Backups: $13.50 (1-4-5) + $27 (2-3-4)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/1/7/7) Paid $455.35


BELMONT 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Girolamo's Attack 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Mystic Night 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Doubly Blessed 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #10 Family Biz 6-1 6th


CHURCHILL 9th: Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Derby exiters Helium & O Besos spice up this 3yo group. Not much pace involved which would appear to compromise O Besos..

Most Likely: #2 Helium 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Fulsome 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Ready to Pounce 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 O Besos 2-1 2nd


BELMONT 9th: Pennine Ridge (G2), 3yo, 9f-OFF/TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sainthood WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #9 The Reds 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Safe Conduct 4th


CHURCHILL 10th: Aristides, 4+, 6f (DD)

Empire of Gold has held his own against top company and should run them off their feet today..

Most Likely: #5 Empire of Gold 7-2 7th
Best Value:*#8 Mojo Man 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Bango 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Haunt 10-1 8th


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

CD 8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-8 (C)
BEL 8: 2-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 9: 1-2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 9: 5-9 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
CD 10: 5 (A), 8 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16
C Backups: $36 (4-5-8) + $24 (3)

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/7/5,6/2,3,4,5,7/3) Paid $504.25


11th: Douglas Park, 4+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Parlor 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Set Piece 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Ramsey Solution 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Gray's Fable 6-1 4th


.20 Derby City P6 Grid:

6: 2-3-6
7: 2-3-4-7
8: 2-7
9: 1-2-3-5
10: 5
11: 3-4-8-9

All A's: 3x4x2x4x1x4 = 384 x .20 = $76.80


P5 Grid:

7: 3-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-8 (C)
11: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x1x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x3x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
C Backups: $8 (4-8) + $36 (1-3-8)

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/7/5,6/3/6,7,8) Paid $269.80


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5-7 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-8 (C)
11: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 3x4x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
C Backups: $36 (1-3-8)

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/5,6/3/6,7,8) Paid $157.80


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Pennine Ridge Now Off The Turf..

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[mugatea]

Terrific Steve!

You pretty much swept all of the "horizontals" that you gave out to us. It's nice to be on your game like that. It makes you feel like you could have gone on all night if Churchill kept running races. I noted that you did indeed target this card well in advance during the week as the type of line-up that had the perfect mix of field sizes (7 to 10 horse fields) that would make things just competitive enough. But you still have to pick the right ones, and then carefully structure the ticket as the multiples start to add up. Well done on both fronts, and congratulations!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mugatea

Terrific Steve!

You pretty much swept all of the "horizontals" that you gave out to us. It's nice to be on your game like that. It makes you feel like you could have gone on all night if Churchill kept running races. I noted that you did indeed target this card well in advance during the week as the type of line-up that had the perfect mix of field sizes (7 to 10 horse fields) that would make things just competitive enough. But you still have to pick the right ones, and then carefully structure the ticket as the multiples start to add up. Well done on both fronts, and congratulations!

THX a lot. Hope you and many did well! I was pleased with the day and returns and particularly amused at hitting all backup plays given the insane Twitter vitriol that's gone on. I was too aggressive trying to get someone else home v. Envoutante, but I might not have hit the P6 anyway because Mighty Heart wasn't that easy to include to start the sequence. Fun afternoon.