Derby Trail Forums - 5/29: Churchill Downs (5th-11th; X-C P5)

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Audubon, 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Well matched group with modest amount of speed involved..

Best Value: #6 Cellist 8-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #1 Palazzi 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Like the King 7-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Royal Prince 3-1 3rd

6th: Blame, 4+, 9f (.20 'Must Pay' Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Derby City P6 Force Out ($150k C/O) Starts Here..

Most Likely: #2 Sprawl 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 South Bend 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Night Ops 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Silver Dust Gate SCR

7th: Shawnee, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$73k P5 C/O Starts Here..

Envoutante has the glaring Falls City effort in November that makes her look imposing, but other than that performance, she's not much different than the next 3-4 candidates. Issue centers on your Pick-X budgets and feeling like you need a lean in this spot with several contentious races to follow..

Most Likely: #7 Envoutante 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Istan Council 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Miss Bigly 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 La Renoleta 8-1 7th

CHURCHILL 8th: Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Entire field is separated by 1.5L making this all about pace and trip..

Best Value: #2 Munnyfor Ro 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Gam's Mission 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Barista 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Flown 9-2 3rd

P4 Grid:

5: 1-2-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
6: 2-6 (A), 3-7/SCR (B), 1-4-5 (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 2-3-4 (C)
8: 2-5-7 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
C Backups: $13.50 (1-4-5) + $27 (2-3-4)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/1/7/7) Paid $455.35

BELMONT 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Girolamo's Attack 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Mystic Night 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Doubly Blessed 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #10 Family Biz 6-1 6th

CHURCHILL 9th: Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Derby exiters Helium & O Besos spice up this 3yo group. Not much pace involved which would appear to compromise O Besos..

Most Likely: #2 Helium 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Fulsome 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 Ready to Pounce 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 O Besos 2-1 2nd

BELMONT 9th: Pennine Ridge (G2), 3yo, 9f-OFF/TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sainthood WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #9 The Reds 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Safe Conduct 4th

CHURCHILL 10th: Aristides, 4+, 6f (DD)

Empire of Gold has held his own against top company and should run them off their feet today..

Most Likely: #5 Empire of Gold 7-2 7th
Best Value:*#8 Mojo Man 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Bango 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Haunt 10-1 8th

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

CD 8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-8 (C)
BEL 8: 2-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 9: 1-2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 9: 5-9 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
CD 10: 5 (A), 8 (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x4x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16
C Backups: $36 (4-5-8) + $24 (3)

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/7/5,6/2,3,4,5,7/3) Paid $504.25

11th: Douglas Park, 4+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Parlor 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Set Piece 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Ramsey Solution 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Gray's Fable 6-1 4th

.20 Derby City P6 Grid:

6: 2-3-6
7: 2-3-4-7
8: 2-7
9: 1-2-3-5
10: 5
11: 3-4-8-9

All A's: 3x4x2x4x1x4 = 384 x .20 = $76.80

P5 Grid:

7: 3-7 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-8 (C)
11: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x1x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x3x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
C Backups: $8 (4-8) + $36 (1-3-8)

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/7/5,6/3/6,7,8) Paid $269.80

P4 Grid:

8: 2-5-7 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 1-2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-8 (C)
11: 3-8 (A), 4-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 3x4x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
C Backups: $36 (1-3-8)

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/5,6/3/6,7,8) Paid $157.80

Good luck!
Steve