Derby Trail Probables/Possibles

[Kasept]

The 6th running of the $125,000 William Walker (Listed), run on Saturday, April 24 at 5 ½ furlongs on turf:

Bodenheimer (trainer Valorie Lund)
Cees Get Degrees (Michelle Lovell)
Charles Chrome (Reeve McGaughey)
Field Day (Brad Cox); Gagetown (Brad Cox)
The Wolfman (Phil Schoenthal)

Possible: Unitedandresolute (Tom Amoss)


The 3rd running of the $120,000 Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes, run Tuesday, April 27 at 1 ½ miles:

Dack Janiel’s (Jack Sisterson)
Plus Que Parfait (Brendan Walsh)
Ry’s the Guy (Ian Wilkes)
Strong Tide (Mike Lauer)
You’re To Blame (Ron Moquett)


The 27th running of the $125,000 Kentucky Juvenile, run Wednesday, April 28 at five furlongs:

Bohemian Frost (John Ennis)
Saucy Lady T (James Chapman)
Shesgotattitude (Ennis)


The 16th running of the $120,000 Opening Verse Overnight Stakes, run Wednesday, April 28 at one mile on turf:

Captivating Moon (Chris Block)
Epic Dreamer (Mark Casse)
Sayyaaf (Mike Maker)
Set Piece (Brad Cox)
Spectacular Gem (Jimmy Baker)


The 11th running of the $150,000 Unbridled Sidney, run on Thursday, April 29 at 5 ½ furlongs on turf:

A Bit of Both (Mike Maker)
Ambassador Luna (James Gulick)
Change of Control (Michelle Lovell)
Foxxy Belle (Michael Ann Ewing)
Into Mystic (Brendan Walsh)
Lady Grace (Mark Casse)
She’sonthewarpath (Steve Margolis)
Wining Envelope (Chris Block)
Yes It’s Ginger (Greg Foley)


The 27th running of the $250,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (Grade II), run Friday, April 30 at 5 ½ furlongs on turf:

American Butterfly (D. Wayne Lukas)
Carotari (Brian Lynch)
Classy John (Dallas Stewart)
Diamond Oops (Patrick Biancone)
Firecrow (Ron Moquett)
Just Might (Michelle Lovell)
Sombeyay (Peter Miller)


The 37th Running of the $300,000 Edgewood (Grade II), run on Friday, April 30 at 1 1/16 miles on turf:

Aunt Pearl (IRE) (Brad Cox)
I Get It (Mark Casse);
Oliviaofthedesert (Kenny McPeek)
Postnup (Cherie DeVaux)
Queen of the Green (Jason Barkley)

Possible: Jouster (Todd Pletcher), Zaajel (Pletcher)


The 66th running of the $300,000 Eight Belles (Grade II), run on Friday April 30 at seven furlongs:

Abrogate (Steve Asmussen)
Dayoutoftheoffice (Tim Hamm)
Euphoric (Bernie Flint)
Slumber Party (Kelly Breen)
Sun Path (Brad Cox)
Windmill (Larry Jones)

Possible: Joyful Cadence (John Ortiz)


The 18th running of the $400,000 Alysheba (Grade II), run on Friday, April 30 at 1 1/16 miles:

Attachment Rate (Dale Romans)
Chess Chief (Dallas Stewart)
Maxfield (Brendan Walsh)
Roadster (Bob Baffert)
Sonneman (Steve Asmussen)
Visitant (Bill Morey)


The 36th running of the $500,000 La Troienne (Grade I), run on Friday, April 30 at 1 1/16 miles:

As Time Goes By (Bob Baffert)
Dunbar Road (Chad Brown)
Envoutante (Kenny McPeek)
Paris Lights (Bill Mott)
Sanenus (CHI) (Michael McCarthy)
Shedaresthedevil (Brad Cox)

Possible: Finite (Steve Asmussen)


The 30th running of the $500,000 American Turf (Grade II), run on Saturday, May 1 at 1 1/16 miles on turf:

Fire At Will (Mike Maker)
Holy Vow (John Ortiz)
Lucky Law (Patrick Biancone)
Palazzi (Mark Casse)
Winfromwithin (Todd Pletcher)


The 97th running of the $500,000 Pat Day Mile, (Grade II) run on Saturday, May 1 at one mile:

Excellent Timing (Chad Brown)
Gretzky the Great (Mark Casse)
Jackie’s Warrior (Steve Asmussen)
Prevalence (Brendan Walsh)
Whiskey Double (Steve Asmussen)

Possible: Dream Shake (Peter Eurton); Dreamer’s Disease (Robertino Diodoro)


The 36th running of the $500,000 Longines Distaff Turf Mile (Grade II), run on Saturday, May 1 at one mile on turf:

Abscond (Eddie Kenneally)
Blowout (Chad Brown)
Got Stormy (Mark Casse)
Princess Grace (Mike Stidham).


The 35th running of the $500,000 Derby City Distaff (Grade I), run on Saturday, May 1 at seven furlongs:

Bell’s the One (Neil Pessin)
Gamine (Bob Baffert)
Sconsin (Greg Foley)

Possible: Finite (Steve Asmussen); Hibiscus Punch (Justin Nixon); Unique Factor (Peter Miller)


The 86th running of the $500,000 Churchill Downs (Grade I), run on Saturday, May 1 at seven furlongs:

Charlatan (Bob Baffert)
Hog Creek Hustle (Vickie Foley)
Lexitonian (Jack Sisterson)
Tap It To Win (Mark Casse)

Possible: Bango (Greg Foley); Shashashakemeup (Peter Miller)


The 35th running of the $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (Grade I), run on Saturday, May 1 at 1 1/8 miles on turf:

Arklow (Brad Cox)
Colonel Liam (Todd Pletcher)
Digital Age (Chad Brown)
Ivar (BRZ) (Paolo Lobo)
Masteroffoxhounds (Richard Baltas)
Ride a Comet (Mark Casse)
Smooth Like Strait (Michael McCarthy)
Domestic Spending (Chad Brown)

Possible: Flavius (Chad Brown), Spooky Channel (Brian Lynch)

[Kasept]

FINAL 3/8THS TIMES

[Dunbar]

Thanks!

[Kasept]

CADDO RIVER is now a Derby GO..

[moses]

Kind of interesting that 4 of the top 6 times are from the Blue Grass.

On that same day, Malathaat finished the 8.5 furlong Ashland in 1:42.94. Her final 1/16th was roughly 6.05. If we estimate that she would have finished the next 1/16th in 6.55 seconds, her time for 9 furlongs would have been 1:49.49 and her final 3/8ths would be under 36.5 seconds. That would put her 4th on that list.

I'm a little skeptical of those final Blue Grass fractions and what they mean for Derby Day.

[Kasept]

FROM TRAVIS STONE

[Kasept]

[RolloTomasi]

I wouldn't necessarily categorize Get Her Number as a closer. The horse has good tactical speed that hasn't been displayed in his 2 outings this year.

Javier Castellano kept a strong hold on the horse who was eager during the first half mile of the Rebel (which was off a 5-month layoff) and shuffled him back between horses down the backstretch. Started climbing a bit when taking kickback to the far turn. Got clobbered in the stretch.

In the Arkansas Derby he again found himself between horses early, got pinballed a bit heading into the first turn, then ended up ducking out sharply off heels entering the back stretch losing 2-3 lengths in the process.

Of course, if he can't handle being in and among traffic in 7-horse fields, none of the above should make one particularly optimistic in a 20-horse melee.