3/26-28 (CD): Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 5

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

How much is your ticket worth if you bet a horse in the future pool at 30-1, he goes off 5-1 in the Derby and runs 16th?

Right means making money. That’s what this is all about.

Okay, so by your definition, a bet is “right” only if it makes money. The reality is that winning or losing the bet has very little to do with whether you had an edge at the time you made the bet. You can lose 28 out of 30 times with your 30-1 shots and have a humongous edge.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If you feel like you’ve found an edge and can spot underlays in future pools....more power to you. But at the end of the day, if you’re not actually making money who gives a sh.it?

Finally, there’s something I can agree with you on, as long as you’re using “end of the day” to mean ‘in the long run’.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Plus...saying you have an edge and actually having one are two different things.

Two things in a row that make sense.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

For all of your posts on the matter I can’t recall many (if any) actual opinions on horses. So how would anyone know if you have an edge? Where is the proof?

Your definition of ‘proof’, I presume, is a longterm winning record? I could show you a log of my bets in the Derby Future Wager ever since I started betting it in 2008. Those bets have shown a solid profit. Showing those bets here is a lose/lose proposition for me. Either (1) I’d fail to convince you, or (2) I WOULD convince you (and possibly others here), and my edge next year would be smaller, thanks to the parimutual aspect.

I’ve filed a Sch C as a professional gambler for at least the past 27 years, showing a profit every year. Am I going to show those to you? No. Would it convince you if I did? Probably not. You might point out that the profits didn’t all come from horseracing. You’d be right. In fact, just 5-10% comes from horseracing bets. What those 27 Sch C’s do show is that I understand how to recognize and capitalize on an edge.

Here’s one more bit of evidence that I know how to recognize an edge (and I’ll agree it’s hardly “proof”). You can check out these two links. The Forbe’s article is good for background; the 2nd link mentions me specifically.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...h=32592578307f

https://www.blackjackreview.com/wp/2...ack-ball-2020/

Despite the 'Blackjack Ball' name, the 110 or so invitees come from multiple types of gambling. Bill Benter was there for at least the past two years. It’s an elite group, and I’m proud to have been invited the past 3 years.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Finally, I didn’t call you intellectually dishonest...yet. I said your analogy was. If you’re still stumped on what the difference between the two is I can help you out.

So my using an intellectually dishonest analogy doesn’t make me intellectually dishonest? Good to know!

Something tells me you will want to get in the last word…

[Dahoss]

Dunbar, we can agree to disagree. Next time just say you don’t like me and save yourself the time from having to write an essay. The line of internet douchebags who don’t like me forms to the left and is very long. Take a number.

You have an edge betting Derby futures but can’t and won’t prove it. I’m very impressed. I have to say, saying if you showed me proof that you’ve made money in the past it would ruin your edge for the future is right on brand and very intellectually dishonest. Have fun with that one.

Consider this my last word on the topic. Something tells me you’ll need the last word. Have at it

[Dahoss]

By the way, you seem like a real blast at parties Dunbar. Oops...maybe that was my last word.

[Kasept]

#7 Essential Quality (Brad Cox, 4-1, $10.20);
#24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (5-1, $12.80);
#4 Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, 5-1, $13);
#8 Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, 9-1, $20.80);
#12 Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, 12-1, $26.20);
#15 Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, 13-1, $28.80);

#18 Prevalence (Brendan Walsh, 21-1, $45.40);
#11 Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, 25-1, $53.80);
#16 Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, 27-1, $56.80);
#9 Helium (Mark Casse, 28-1, $59.80);
#20 Risk Taking (Chad Brown, 30-1, $62.80);
#21 Rock Your World (John Sadler, 31-1, $65);

#2 Caddo River (Brad Cox, 33-1, $69.40);
#23 Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, 35-1, $72.80);
#3 Collaborate (Saffie Joseph Jr., 36-1, $74.40);
#14 Mandaloun (Brad Cox, 36-1, $75.40);
#5 Crowded Trade (Chad Brown, 38-1, $78.40);
#13 Hozier (Bob Baffert, 44-1, $91.40);

#6 Dream Shake (Peter Eurton, 45-1, $92);
#22 Spielberg (Bob Baffert, 46-1, $95);
#17 O Besos (Greg Foley, 50-1, $102.20);
#19 Proxy (Mike Stidham, 51-1, $105.60);
#10 Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver, 53-1, $109.60);
#1 Big Lake (Steve Asmussen, SCRATCHED).

[moses]

Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things it’s not much but I’m wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things it’s not much but I’m wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.

How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.

Agreed about that. I wait until late in the day on Sunday to make my wager no matter what.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things it’s not much but I’m wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.

If it's not because of some accounting delay, bet with both fists in the Lexington Stakes...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Dunbar, we can agree to disagree. Next time just say you don’t like me and save yourself the time from having to write an essay. The line of internet douchebags who don’t like me forms to the left and is very long. Take a number.

You have an edge betting Derby futures but can’t and won’t prove it. I’m very impressed. I have to say, saying if you showed me proof that you’ve made money in the past it would ruin your edge for the future is right on brand and very intellectually dishonest. Have fun with that one.

Consider this my last word on the topic. Something tells me you’ll need the last word. Have at it

I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a couple of things clear to me. First, you don't have the foggiest notion of what expected value is or what "having an edge" really means. More surprisingly, you don't seem to understand the fact that in parimutual pools, if you convince everyone to bet like you do, your payoffs suffer.

You can relax. I won't make the mistake of engaging with you again.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a couple of things clear to me. First, you don't have the foggiest notion of what expected value is or what "having an edge" really means. More surprisingly, you don't seem to understand the fact that in parimutual pools, if you convince everyone to bet like you do, your payoffs suffer.

You can relax. I won't make the mistake of engaging with you again.

You’re probably right. I’m sure if you just proved that you’ve been able to make money in future pools consistently that hundreds, if not thousands would rush to this board to see the brilliance of betting “all other 3 year olds” at 2-1 four months before the race. You’re not that important.

Again, we agree to disagree. It’s not a big deal. For some reason, you seem personally offended because I think these bets are bad bets. I’m not sure why you are so offended, but it’s pretty funny.

Another thing I find hilarious is you seem incapable of just dropping it. Almost like I’ve really gotten under your skin and as hard as you are trying to stay calm, you’re clearly mad.

Mission accomplished! GFY Dunbar and shove your blackjack CD up your tight ass, k?