3/27 (GP): Florida Derby (G1) Day

Conrad · #1 03-26-2021, 09:37 AM

With no true E types in this field I'm thinking that Baffert & Javi are going to send Spielberg and lay down the challenge...it's what he does.
Latest work and his outside post says he's going.

If they're not careful he can open up a nice early lead. IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.
Interesting runner for me is Nova Rags, who figures to get a nice inside stalking run. Has the early speed to lay close to my expected front runner. I think he can move forward off his last and be a factor at a good price.

Not sure of my exact play, but 1-5-7-10 are my guys.

moses · #2 03-26-2021, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad

With no true E types in this field I'm thinking that Baffert & Javi are going to send Spielberg and lay down the challenge...it's what he does.
Latest work and his outside post says he's going.

If they're not careful he can open up a nice early lead. IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.
Interesting runner for me is Nova Rags, who figures to get a nice inside stalking run. Has the early speed to lay close to my expected front runner. I think he can move forward off his last and be a factor at a good price.

Not sure of my exact play, but 1-5-7-10 are my guys.

Interesting. I had a similar thought but was thinking that Nova Rags had to be sent, duels with Collaborate and possibly Soup and Sandwich and Spielberg sits a nice stalking trip behind them.

robfla · #3 03-26-2021, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad

IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.

what figs are you referring to? Collabarate has the highest early pace figure and fastest last race BSF ( Albeit 1 turn )

ninetoone · #4 03-26-2021, 02:48 PM

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

FATPIANO · #5 03-26-2021, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

hmmm 1st time route and 1st time winners, I have seen many like this go down, I don't like Favorites , But GH looks like the real deal, and I love when a horse has matching beyers, next race is usually a monster. Ill try and hit a 20 exacta and 20 triple with GH on top....

King Glorious · #6 03-27-2021, 10:10 AM

I have no opinion.

Alabama Stakes · #7 03-27-2021, 10:28 AM

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

Dahoss · #8 03-27-2021, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

LOL

The voices in your big dumb head told you?

Dahoss · #9 03-28-2021, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I heard they scraped the rail. Inside speed could be the way to go.

Might want to stop listening to whoever told you this.

ninetoone · #10 03-28-2021, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...

When I identify a bad favorite and land on a horse ridden by someone other than Irad Ortiz, my record is not good. In these scenarios (big races), I'm not sure what my ROI would be if I had just blindly bet Irad instead, but it would be much higher. This one especially stings because the hype around Collaborate actually helped him (Irad) go off at good/fair odds, which is pretty rare. From a gambling perspective, normally I'd have been all over Known Agenda, but ironically I think my pride got in the way a little bit posting my opinion in advance. Obviously I realize it's mostly about the horse, but I just can't ignore this scenario....and Irad is definitely my guy. I had a bad feeling before the race started that he was going to get me. I did catch him/Pletcher on a pretty big win bet in the BCC Classic on Vino Rosso a couple years ago though in this scenario! This should have been another....I blew it!

I used to employ this same strategy with Ramon back in the day. It was rare to get him at good/fair odds too. Occasionally though, he would get ignored. His win on Better Talk Now in the Breeder's Cup Turf over Kitten's Joy was probably my 2nd happiest moment ever as a gambler, behind Pleasantly Perfect's win in the BCC at 14-1....(that was Solis)

moses · #11 03-27-2021, 08:46 PM

I’m glad I posed the question on Known Agenda as I ended up off of Spielberg and on Known Agenda...only to turn around and ultimately decide to single Greatest Honour in my horizontal wagers.

Good job to anyone who ended up on him.