Most Overrated Horses

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No one accomplished what Justify did when he debuted in mid-February and by early June was a Triple Crown winner. He outdueled a Grade 1-winning sprinter through ridiculous fractions in the Kentucky Derby with a horse with one of the fastest 2yo performances ever right at his hip for a mid-race challenge and still won the race clear. In the Preakness the juvenile champion went right for his throat from the bell (much to the chagrin of his trainer) and he pried out the upper hand in the final furlong with enough left to hold off any opportunistic upstart. He got no breaks at any point of his brief racing career.

Justify, Rock Hard Ten, and Risen Star were all horses whose careers were derailed by injury and were to an extent martyrs of the Triple Crown.

Rock Hard Ten tried to pull the same stunt as Justify, and nearly pulled off the first part when debuting in February before just missing in a photo in the Santa Anita Derby 2 starts later. Not taking time to reflect on the ridiculousness of the campaign they were pursuing with the horse when excluded from the Kentucky Derby field, his connections continued to push the horse in distance and class with each and every start. Even started only 4 weeks after a second straight double digit loss in the Belmont. Unfortunately, the horse won that race, emboldening his handlers to put him right back on a plane and back into the frying pan. After bombing in the Haskell he mercifully got time off. When he returned he did little wrong but wasn't sound. Tagged the ascending Lava Man in Malibu and drowned Saint Liam in the Big Cap during that one's HOY campaign. Was sidelined until the fall and could make only one start beating the overrated Roman Ruler, a son of the overrated Fusaichi Pegasus.

Risen Star was falling apart leading up to the Belmont Stakes. He had a suspensory strain out of the Preakness and couldn't train much in the weeks leading up to the Belmont. He then ran off in a blowout, breezing 3 furlongs in :33+ the day before the race. In this day and age it's doubtful he would have been allowed to start with all that, but back then there wasn't as much scrutiny and there was a $1 million bonus on the line. Ran himself into the record books with a powerhouse performance second (at the time) only to his own sire. Not surprisingly was also ruined for racing afterwards.

The point wasn’t to say that Justify wasn’t an outstanding horse that accomplished great things. But historically, Justify will always be remembered as greater than Risen Star because he won the TC and I think Risen Star was better. He lost his Derby to two champions that were multiple grade one winners. Justify didn’t have to face horses the quality of Winning Colors and Forty Niner. Can’t be proven of course but my bet is that if you could switch the years and have Justify facing what Risen Star faced and vice versa, we’d have a different TC winner.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The point wasn’t to say that Justify wasn’t an outstanding horse that accomplished great things. But historically, Justify will always be remembered as greater than Risen Star because he won the TC and I think Risen Star was better. He lost his Derby to two champions that were multiple grade one winners. Justify didn’t have to face horses the quality of Winning Colors and Forty Niner. Can’t be proven of course but my bet is that if you could switch the years and have Justify facing what Risen Star faced and vice versa, we’d have a different TC winner.

Justify will be "remembered" as the better horse by people that know nothing about Risen Star. Pretty much nobody with a clue that knows their respective talents thinks Justify was a better horse. It's a function of recency bias. Risen Star's TC accomplishments were almost 33 years ago. We live in a time where there are actually people that say Songbird was the best 3YO filly ever....and that was less than ten years after Rachel Alexandra's remarkable 3YO season.

Justify isn't overrated....at least by anyone's opinions that are even remotely qualified. He was a damn good horse that did quite a lot over a very short period of time. He earned his place in history.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Justify didn’t have to face horses the quality of Winning Colors and Forty Niner. Can’t be proven of course but my bet is that if you could switch the years and have Justify facing what Risen Star faced and vice versa, we’d have a different TC winner.

Forget trading places, it is a foregone conclusion that Risen Star would have won the 2018 Preakness if he could have somehow been added to the field with Justify left in there.

He would have enjoyed a nearly identical repeat of the perfect setup that he received in the 1988 Preakness. Even the rail would have been left wide open for him...

Not sure he would have got to run in the Belmont with a hole in his suspensory, though...

5 time Grade 1 winner Stardom Bound