NTRA Eclipse 50

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Realistically, She would be favored against any distaff runner. Speed of lightning, roar of thunder.

I can't think of a female dirt runner since Ruffian I am confident could beat her in a fairly run race. To me, Go for Wand was the gold standard.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't discriminate against sprinters. I actually think that in an era where the vast majority of races are eight furlongs and under and looking at who the main sires are, it's harder to dominate shorter races than it is longer races. The pool of good runners is deeper, I think.

That sounds all good in theory but that's not the reality as far as Gamine's campaign goes. She faced fields of 6, 7, and 8 horses in her big wins. Furthermore, despite the notion that American breeding is geared toward speed, Gamine was left untouched early in the Acorn and her main pace rival in the Test was thwarted by a hammerlock from her rider down the backstretch. Gamine also had the run of the race in the Kentucky Oaks yet failed to even threaten to break the race open, never mind capitalize on the ideal setup and win.

She faced a grand total of 7 different Grade 1 winners all year, beating 5 of those.

Most people give more credit to the horses that do better at the classic distances and I get that. I just don't agree with it. I think if you tell me that the race is 9f, I'm picking Swiss Skydiver to beat her. Anything under that and I'm picking Gamine. I think Gamine has a much better chance of beating Swiss Skydiver at 9f than the other way around.

You down play the versatility of Swiss Skydiver. The pace numbers for several of her route races were high and she was in the mix or setting the fractions in the majority of those. On the Beyer scale she ran slightly faster (while hounding the same pace rival Gamine later faced in the Test) than Gamine at Oaklawn over 8.5 furlongs in early May...and she wasn't subsequently disqualified. Swiss Skydiver absolutely crushed going 7 furlongs in her debut.

And if history tells us anything, middle distance horses absolutely terrorize sprinters at 7 furlongs more often than not (see the 1991 Deputy Minister replay I posted a couple of weeks back or the history of the Malibu and the La Brea)...at least in a full field on a fair racetrack.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That sounds all good in theory but that's not the reality as far as Gamine's campaign goes. She faced fields of 6, 7, and 8 horses in her big wins. Furthermore, despite the notion that American breeding is geared toward speed, Gamine was left untouched early in the Acorn and her main pace rival in the Test was thwarted by a hammerlock from her rider down the backstretch. Gamine also had the run of the race in the Kentucky Oaks yet failed to even threaten to break the race open, never mind capitalize on the ideal setup and win.

She faced a grand total of 7 different Grade 1 winners all year, beating 5 of those.


You down play the versatility of Swiss Skydiver. The pace numbers for several of her route races were high and she was in the mix or setting the fractions in the majority of those. On the Beyer scale she ran slightly faster (while hounding the same pace rival Gamine later faced in the Test) than Gamine at Oaklawn over 8.5 furlongs in early May...and she wasn't subsequently disqualified. Swiss Skydiver absolutely crushed going 7 furlongs in her debut.

And if history tells us anything, middle distance horses absolutely terrorize sprinters at 7 furlongs more often than not (see the 1991 Deputy Minister replay I posted a couple of weeks back or the history of the Malibu and the La Brea)...at least in a full field on a fair racetrack.

My argument would be that beating Venetian Harbor at 7f is more impressive than beating her at 8.5f since sprinting is what she does best.

I'm not surprised that Gamine's early pace numbers aren't that great. I never thought she was particularly fast early which is why I thought she would get outrun early and be a non factor in the BC. Man, was I wrong on that one.

You bringing up middle distance horses beating sprinters is just not fair. Because I know it to be true. Of course I remember learning that lesson in my early years after watching Precisionist, Gulch, and Dancing Spree win the Sprint.

In the end, I can't make any overwhelming argument that says Gamine was the better horse. It's just my opinion. If they were to face off now going 7-8f, I'm taking Gamine in a runaway. If it's 9f, I'm still taking Gamine but not nearly as confident.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My argument would be that beating Venetian Harbor at 7f is more impressive than beating her at 8.5f since sprinting is what she does best.

A dubious assertion at this stage. Venetian Harbor is a run-off who has yet to mature into a reasonable running style. She is no more effective sprinting than she is routing. In fact, her sprint record is terrible compared to her two-turn record, which is at least consistent. She was buried in both the Test and the BC FM Sprint and just held sway in the lesser Raven Run. Meanwhile, the only two horses to beat her in a two-turn race are Swiss Skydiver and Speech (both of whom have technically beaten Gamine, by the way).

She hasn't beaten a sprinter of any merit and yet in her routes she's finished in front of the winners of the BC Juvenile Fillies, the Queen Elizabeth, the Demoiselle, the Kentucky Oaks, Fair Grounds Oaks, Remington Park Oaks, and Falls City...all two turn races. When she held on to win the Raven Run, she just edged the come backing Finite, another multiple graded stakes winner around two-turns.

That Swiss Skydiver was able to engage Venetian Harbor early after a blistering 1/2 mile and still go on to win Fantasy speaks to the quality of the former's cruising speed. It was a dozen lengths back to the rest of the field (which also says something about Venetian Harbor's ability to see out a distance).

That certainly trumps Gamine being able to out-foot Venetian Harbor in a pair sprints when the latter was hard held early in both races, effectively blunting the one weapon she's thus far displayed (her front-running speed).

If she learns to settle she'll be able to get a middle distance easily.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

They have Spectacular Bid as an 80s horse.

His 1980 season
ranks as one of the best of all time

[FATPIANO]

I just realized there was no love for Arrogate !!!!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't think of a female dirt runner since Ruffian I am confident could beat her in a fairly run race. To me, Go for Wand was the gold standard.

Finally got one right. There’s hope for you after all.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not surprised that Gamine's early pace numbers aren't that great. I never thought she was particularly fast early which is why I thought she would get outrun early and be a non factor in the BC.

I gotta call bullish.it here. I don’t think you thought Gamine would be a non factor in the BC. And if you did that could explain why you’re overrating her so much.

[King Glorious]

Here are a couple of my posts on another forum before the race:
Arazi 0
Posted November 2
As much as I love Gamine, I don't think she wins here. Serengeti Empress is the likely pick for me. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gamine off the board. She is not fast enough early to run with these.

——————————


Arazi 0
Posted November 5
If this race was 8f, I'd pick Gamine. It's not. I'll take it a step further. I think Gamine might be able to run 7f faster than Serengeti Empress in a vacuum. If allowed to run along uncontested, I think she could be faster. That Test Stakes was awesome. But in a sprint race with several runners all up there gunning, I don't see Gamine having the speed necessary to get the lead and that changes things.

[Dahoss]

Well that explains the HOY nonsense

You underrated her going into that race (I did too) and are overrating her now

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Well that explains the HOY nonsense

You underrated her going into that race (I did too) and are overrating her now

I absolutely did underrate her chances in the race even though I think she’s the best horse on the country. She shocked me and earned my vote.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If this race was 8f, I'd pick Gamine. It's not. I'll take it a step further. I think Gamine might be able to run 7f faster than Serengeti Empress in a vacuum. If allowed to run along uncontested, I think she could be faster. That Test Stakes was awesome. But in a sprint race with several runners all up there gunning, I don't see Gamine having the speed necessary to get the lead and that changes things.

You seemed to have formed your opinion of the race based on sprint racing in general rather than looking at the PPs. The BC FM Sprint was an 8 horse field with 5 dead closers, a couple of run offs, and Gamine. There was never going to be a multi-horse battle for the lead.

The only shocking development was that Venetian Harbor's jock didn't go for the lead after that owner dude blew up Twitter after the Test Stakes crying about a well orchestrated conspiracy to get his horse beat.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You seemed to have formed your opinion of the race based on sprint racing in general rather than looking at the PPs. The BC FM Sprint was an 8 horse field with 5 dead closers, a couple of run offs, and Gamine. There was never going to be a multi-horse battle for the lead.

The only shocking development was that Venetian Harbor's jock didn't go for the lead after that owner dude blew up Twitter after the Test Stakes crying about a well orchestrated conspiracy to get his horse beat.

I didn't think she would be anywhere near Serengeti Empress in the early going and would be done for after trying to keep up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The only shocking development was that Venetian Harbor's jock didn't go for the lead after that owner dude blew up Twitter after the Test Stakes crying about a well orchestrated conspiracy to get his horse beat.

My favorite part about that was he found a captive audience that agreed with him. Kind of a precursor to what's happening now.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Kind of a precursor to what's happening now.

It cannot be helped. We are trying to make lemonade here, especially this time of year.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I didn't think she would be anywhere near Serengeti Empress in the early going and would be done for after trying to keep up.

Gamine (surprisingly) relaxed comfortably on the lead after the first 1/4 in the Kentucky Oaks, John Velasquez is a seasoned rider who probably does his homework ahead of a major race, and the only time Serengeti Empress doesn't come back to the field is when the hapless Bellafina is her main rival.

Conditions were ripe for her to be in a garden spot, especially on a souped up track.