Two at Toga

[theguarantee]

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

WWW had something up at the start last time out as he gave the field a large headstart and was able to finish strong for 2nd. I definitely like him and will use him underneath. We disagree on Complexity but I may be the fool buying into him again. We shall see. Good luck!

[moses]

Great call on WWW. I’m kicking myself for not having that exacta.

[theguarantee]

^Thanks man, I caught the exacta and win money and live in the pick-5 but really kicking myself for not listening to you more as I used True Timber in 2nd/3rd but only snuck Complexity into the 3rd slot on tris...that's trifectas not tries...wild race I don't know what to make of but I certainly won't apologize for winners in this game.

Good luck the rest of the card. I just noticed Zainalarab scratched, not sure when that happened so not even sure where I'm at in this pick 5.

[Alabama Stakes]

After Fox screwed everyone over, I watched the replay trying to figure out how the 7 won that race. Wow what a run.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.20

Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here.

Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect.

So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.

Great call on Win Win Win!

[moses]

Who would have thought that Complexity would pay more to place than Miss Jimmy? $6.40 for Complexity's 2nd place finish and $5.70 for Miss Jimmy are added to the totals.

Best bets: $56.00 wagered. $27.10 returned.
Longshots: $56.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $112.00 wagered. $87.40 returned.

Sunday August 30th.

Best bet: Race 8 - #8 Harris Bay (3/1 ML). Of the horses coming out of the 8th race at Saratoga on August 2nd, I want Harris Bay. The #4 Gandy Dancing had his own issues in that race, but Harris Bay got bumped and squeezed early and was still able to finish strong, almost catching Gandy Dancing down the stretch. Harris Bay now goes for his 2nd race off of a 7-month layoff and should improve off the last performance.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Lucky Stride (15/1 ML). If you're a believer in equibase speed figures, Lucky Stride is not only the most consistent runner of this bunch but also the clear best. She's got a career high of 117 compared to Letruska's career high of 113 and she's also recorded a 100+ equibase speed figure in her last 4 starts. I rarely use equibase numbers but this horse has me intrigued with her recent sharp workouts with stablemate Win Win Win, who came flying home to win the Forego on Saturday. I'm not enamored with any of the other horses in this race, so at 15/1, I'll take a shot on this wildcard.

[theguarantee]

Thanks hoss...

Wagered: $76.00
Returned: $103.90

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Golden Award - What a great race this Shuvee came up...you could absolutely make a case for any and I've debated several in here...I ultimately want to lean on Golden Award. I've always thought she was really nice and while she really throws up some duds, I like her best races. This is the first time in a while that Mott seems to have her avoiding a need for at least a freshening. Clearly she wasn't ready or up for the Phipps but I felt the Summer Colony showed she is back. I realize Nonna Madeline disposed of her late but I think this has been the target all along and she'll be ready for her best today. Her last work on xbtv was a real eye popper to me...I do think she will have to prove she can rate and it's been a while/she's only done it vs much lesser...I think she's sitting on full go and hasn't shown her absolute best yet. Hoping Nonna Madeline attacks Letruska like she did her in the last and she sits just off/makes first run.

Best Value: Race 7 #7 Dancingwthdaffodls - I can actually hardly believe myself for landing on her...I almost dismissed off the perfect trip/weak field for a horse who's shown she doesn't like to win...while the July 30th race has any number of angles for trip handicappers I just think they may all end up overbet. On the other hand a horse who looks like she doesn't want to win or stretch out may go overlooked. I just think she's a different horse since the last layoff...and with a few dirt starts over some subpar turf efforts preceding that she's fairly easy to dismiss. She's ran OK with an improved closing kick since though and seems to be in the best form of her career. While the stretchout might not work I think she has enough speed to find a decent spot maybe in the second flight today...note the 78 Beyer at a mile last Summer (competitive in here) came off the heels of much lesser form.

Good luck.

[moses]

A 2nd place finish from Harris Bay adds $3.20 to the total returns.

Best bets: $60.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $60.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $120.00 wagered. $90.60 returned.

Wednesday September 1.

Best bet: Race 6 - #13 - Saratoga Love (9/2 ML). This one is currently listed on the AE list so it's possible that she won't draw into the field. I'll check scratches tomorrow and see. She is by far the fastest horse in the field and should be the early pacesetter, even with the outside post. The expected favorite, Voting Agreement, will have to work out a good trip to be able to catch her and I'm just not sure she is as good as the morning line would indicate.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Blame the Booze (9/2 ML). I don't know if he even really counts as a longshot but he's the 4th choice in a 6-horse field so let's roll with it. Originally scheduled to run on turf, Blame the Booze's debut was washed off and he won fairly easily in the mud. He's got a tall, strong frame that looks to me like it should take to the turf. Obviously, American Monarch has the Beyer advantage over this field but 7/5 on him is pretty unappealing as he ran only 3 weeks ago and the strength of that field is completely unknown. He finished well after being close to a very slow pace. Blame the Booze, on the other hand, should be forwardly placed with an aggressive ride from Luis Saez and has a very good chance to wire this field, assuming he likes the turf.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

A 2nd place finish from Harris Bay adds $3.20 to the total returns.

Best bets: $60.00 wagered. $30.30 returned.
Longshots: $60.00 wagered. $60.30 returned.
Total: $120.00 wagered. $90.60 returned.

Wednesday September 1.

Best bet: Race 6 - #13 - Saratoga Love (9/2 ML). This one is currently listed on the AE list so it's possible that she won't draw into the field. I'll check scratches tomorrow and see. She is by far the fastest horse in the field and should be the early pacesetter, even with the outside post. The expected favorite, Voting Agreement, will have to work out a good trip to be able to catch her and I'm just not sure she is as good as the morning line would indicate.

Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Blame the Booze (9/2 ML). I don't know if he even really counts as a longshot but he's the 4th choice in a 6-horse field so let's roll with it. Originally scheduled to run on turf, Blame the Booze's debut was washed off and he won fairly easily in the mud. He's got a tall, strong frame that looks to me like it should take to the turf. Obviously, American Monarch has the Beyer advantage over this field but 7/5 on him is pretty unappealing as he ran only 3 weeks ago and the strength of that field is completely unknown. He finished well after being close to a very slow pace. Blame the Booze, on the other hand, should be forwardly placed with an aggressive ride from Luis Saez and has a very good chance to wire this field, assuming he likes the turf.

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by moses

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

Very nice hit on your longshot play

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

With the races off the turf, switching the picks up.

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Twelfth Labour (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 2 - #3 Vinda Machine (20/1 ML).

Great job with Vinda!