Two at Toga

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday, August 26.


Best bet: Race 5 - #3 Checksandbalances (8/5 ML). A stumble at the start proved to be too difficult for Checksandbalances to overcome last time out, though she finished a gamely 3rd by only a neck. Without the stumble, I think she wins easily.

Longshot: Race 7 - #1 Buy Land and See (8/1 ML). I'm not totally convinced that Buy Land and See will like a 5.5 furlong sprint but with all the speed signed on for this race, my guess is he can sit off the pace a bit. I'm going to trust Jose Ortiz to work out a perfect trip for this one and hope that he'll be flying late.

Best bets: $40.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $40.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $80.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.

Well, I ended up with two 3rd place finishers. I guess that's better than what I've been doing but still pretty pathetic. Checksandbalances ended up being the horse you wanted out of her most recent race...but the two that beat her were much, much better. I'm not sure I could have ended up on the longshot that finished 2nd but Rosario's horse had some appeal but I discounted her. As far as Race 7, there is no freaking way I would have made my pick if I knew he’d go off at 3/1. Ah well. I actually ended up putting a few bucks on Jack and Noah in that race. It made zero sense that he was 5/1, though didn’t think he’d win as easily as he did.

Moving on to today. Thursday, August 27.

Best bet: Race 1 - #2 Posse Can Disco (5/1 ML). None of these horses look very inspiring, particularly the ones who have already raced. The #2 Posse Can Disco is a first time starter but comes into this one with two very good workouts and draws Ricardo Santana who I have no problem leaning on in a dirt sprint.

Longshot: Race 6 - #6 Flashing Red (10/1 ML). I'm not fully understanding the 1/1A as a 6/5 morning line favorite so I think this is a race where we might see a price. I'm not crazy about the horses that have raced on turf so I'm looking for a horse that might like the surface switch. This one has never raced on turf but her dirt figures could put her in the mix if she takes a liking to the grass. I'm a little bit intrigued with her being claimed and switched immediately to the turf, which she may like based on pedigree. The other first time turf starter that I like in here is the #3 Glass Ceiling but she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line and I wouldn't be shocked to see her lower than that based on the drop in class.

Note: Race 6 may come off the turf. NYRA reported about a half hour ago that the turf races are ON...for now. If that changes, I'll have to switch it up.

Best bets: $44.00 wagered. $18.20 returned.
Longshots: $44.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $88.00 wagered. $37.00 returned.