5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

Too funny, philski. I just did a search, and we had a very similar discussion about a poor Derby ML almost exactly 11 years ago!

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22079

Has anything changed in 11 years?! Check it out.

Anyway, I was curious how this year's 138% compared to some of the other CD stakes races this weekend. Here's what I came up with:

Turf Classic 131%
Pat Day Mile 134%
Amer Turf 136%
Alysheba 131%

and, somewhat weirdly, the Ky Oaks, 99.8%

With a 17.5% track take, the apparent odds from the morning line should add up to 121%. So the Ky Oaks ML odds would appear to be even further off than the Derby ML odds.

At any rate, I agree that the ML should be a set of odds that actually add up to what one might see when the betting is done.

Looking forward to grousing about this again 11 years from now!

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Lol great find. What a bunch of angry math nerds we are!

[LITF]

Any thoughts on the undercard races?

I’m thinking about singling Whitmore to start the pick 5. Seems like Mitole will have to handle some serious heat for the first time. Kinda like Social Paranoia in the American. Hoping Global Campaign draws in to the Pat Day. If not, maybe Hog Creek Hustle. I’ve already lost some money on him might as well keep that going. Qurbaan in the Turf Classic.

Any insights are greatly appreciated.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by LITF

Any thoughts on the undercard races?

I’m thinking about singling Whitmore to start the pick 5. Seems like Mitole will have to handle some serious heat for the first time. Kinda like Social Paranoia in the American. Hoping Global Campaign draws in to the Pat Day. If not, maybe Hog Creek Hustle. I’ve already lost some money on him might as well keep that going. Qurbaan in the Turf Classic.

Any insights are greatly appreciated.

Here’s what I’ll offer. I cannot count how many times Churchill is wildly speed crazy to start the day on derby day and fair as heck by the end of the day.

[moses]

Rumor that Mike Smith might get on Cutting Humor now?