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Sloppy Derby M/L
Been trying to figure out what the true odds will be at post, and Battaglia's morning line on the Derby (which is usually decent) is terrible. There isn't any combination which comes even close to the odds he lists; you can expect about 30% higher odds on any runner in the field. For example, if Big Brown is 7/2, the MINIMUM Colonel John and Pyro would have to be is 12-1 for all of the other horses he has at 15-1 and 20-1 to be close to those prices.
Just an FYI so you can better determine what your choice will be at the post.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#2
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#3
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1 Cool Coal Man 15-1 2 Tale of Ekati 20-1 3 Anak Nakal 100-1 4 Court Vision 40-1 5 Eight Belles 12-1 6 Z Fortune 12-1 7 Big Truck 40-1 8 Visionaire 30-1 9 Pyro 10-1 10 Colonel John 7-1 11 Z Humor 80-1 12 Smooth Air 15-1 13 Bob Black Jack 40-1 14 Monba 25-1 15 Adriano 30-1 16 Denis of Cork 20-1 17 Cowboy Cal 30-1 18 Recapturetheglory 30-1 19 Gayego 12-1 20 Big Brown 7-2
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#4
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Yes, the morning line comes out to a 28% takeout. Ridiculous.
I have a spreadsheet that I offered here (for free) last year which will take a set of odds and adjust it to any takeout you specify (or to no takeout, if you want a "fair odds" line). Anyway, I put in Battaglia's odds and here's what you get with a 16% takeout: Cool Coal Man 23 Tale of Ekati 18 Anak Nakal 35 Court Vision 23 Eight Belles 23 Z Fortune 18 Big Truck 59 Visionaire 23 Pyro 7 Col John 4.7-1 Z Humor 35 Smooth Air 23 Bob Black Jack 23 Monba 18 Adriano 35 Denis of Cork 23 Cowboy Cal 23 Recapturetheglory 23 Gayego 18 Big Brown 7-2 The rounding actually moves this to a 17.2% takeout, but at least that's in the ballpark. (oops, wrong sport metaphor) btw, phil, from the title of this thread I thought you were going to post an ML for a sloppy track! I immediately went to weather.com to see how bad the weather was going to be! --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#5
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--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#7
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I don't want to volunteer you to start sending it out again, Dunbar, but I've got it on both of my computers and use it pretty often and think it's really helpful -- and that others may want to seriously think about using it since there's so much you can do with it. |
#8
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its a good tool to use to run different scenarios and see the effect. also, where is the morning line for a sloppy track? |
#9
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http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/stati...out&header=off --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#10
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Thanks for the nice comments, Brian and Jim. It's very satisfying to hear stuff like that.
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |