TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[RHT2004]

Hofburg feels like the massive wise guy horse.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Hofburg feels like the massive wise guy horse.

Hofburg, Bravazo, Free Drop Billy, Tenfold, Vino Russo and Audible (if he even runs) are all about the same and can see any of them right there. They all are pretty good and are very similar styles. Think Hofburg will get money on him for sure.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Hofburg feels like the massive wise guy horse.

Agreed, though I think he’s a serious racehorse.

I think Free Drop Billy sucks.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Agreed, though I think he’s a serious racehorse.

I think Free Drop Billy sucks.

Agree.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Hofburg feels like the massive wise guy horse.

How is the likely second choice a wise guy horse.

As a wise guy, well before I sold out, I resent the constant misuse of this once respected term. It used to be that if you didn't know history, you were doomed to mislearn it from Hollywood...now it's from message boards.

[cal828]

I think that Blended Citizen might also be a candidate for that role having already won a race at Belmont (please note that I did not use the term "wise guy" )

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think that Blended Citizen might also be a candidate for that role having already won a race at Belmont (please note that I did not use the term "wise guy" )

The "smart guy" horse to use underneath Justify I totally agree!

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How is the likely second choice a wise guy horse.

As a wise guy, well before I sold out, I resent the constant misuse of this once respected term. It used to be that if you didn't know history, you were doomed to mislearn it from Hollywood...now it's from message boards.

I get it. What would be your definition of “wise guy horse” though? Or do you think he’s the ML second choice, because I think Bravazo and Tenfold would definitely be in the mix for that?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I get it. What would be your definition of “wise guy horse” though? Or do you think he’s the ML second choice, because I think Bravazo and Tenfold would definitely be in the mix for that?

A wise guy horse would be an off the radar longshot that the average player doesn't see....and a horse that frequently outruns its odds.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A wise guy horse would be an off the radar longshot that the average player doesn't see....and a horse that frequently outruns its odds.

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

It's turned into that by misuse.....sort of like the subversion of the word "value" in racing. A horse doesn't have value just because it's a big price.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

The definition hasn't changed....it's been subverted by people using the term inaccurately.

Been meaning to ask, how's your former protégé KYRIM?

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Hofburg feels like the massive wise guy horse.

everything I have read and already knew after Bill Mott said the Belmont was the plan for this one, he was already the wiseguy horse. If Vino Rosso goes he will be the the 1a wise guy horse

[declansharbor]

Sure it's a step up from his perfect trip against Core Beliefs, but I'll definitely pound the trifecta heavy using Blended Citizen in the bottom two rungs of all plays.

He was HARD ridden well before the final turn and didn't seem to make any headway until the whip came out in entering the stretch. He looked like he could run ALL day.

LFG!

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Hofburg feels like the massive wise guy horse.

Hofburg had a brutal ride in the Derby...and was still running hard at the end. There’s definitely a lot to like but if he’s going off as the 2nd choice then I don’t know. I’d probably lean toward Tenfold and Blended Citizen as better values.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Hofburg had a brutal ride in the Derby...and was still running hard at the end. There’s definitely a lot to like but if he’s going off as the 2nd choice then I don’t know. I’d probably lean toward Tenfold and Blended Citizen as better values.

There was nothing wrong with his ride in the Derby. Mediocre trips aren't always rider's faults.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There was nothing wrong with his ride in the Derby. Mediocre trips aren't always rider's faults.

You’re right. I meant to say brutal trip and didn’t mean to cast blame on the rider. I don’t think there was much the rider could have done to make it better.