7/23-24 (SAR): CCA Oaks (G1); Caress

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Mike Smith did everything in his power to get Elate a Grade 1, but it still wasn't enough.

That's what you take away from that? Good luck moving forward bud.

[10 pnt move up]

Abel Tasman is a very tricky horse to ride...she is so big and Mike has said that when she gets going she is rolling

that being said the 2 ran a tremendous race.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

That's what you take away from that? Good luck moving forward bud.

That middle-move was completely unnecessary and should have lost him the race.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cakes44

That middle-move was completely unnecessary and should have lost him the race.

going to be an interesting alabama with unchained melody

despite the trip for the 7 I am just wondering if she doesnt fit a bit better around 7f to a 1mile.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

going to be an interesting alabama with unchained melody

despite the trip for the 7 I am just wondering if she doesnt fit a bit better around 7f to a 1mile.

Shes a trap IMO.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by cakes44

That middle-move was completely unnecessary and should have lost him the race.

Thats fair. But i think Elate improved today. Taking a non biased view who should love the 10f of the Alabama? Feels like Elate to me.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Thats fair. But i think Elate improved today. Taking a non biased view who should love the 10f of the Alabama? Feels like Elate to me.

No doubt Elate improved. She ran big.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cakes44

No doubt Elate improved. She ran big.

I guess, I feel like she had the dream trip while the 2 and 7 did not. If she is like 3/1 the Alabama could be a big underlay.

Wonder if Baffert thinks about skipping the Alabama...running in it actually only hurts the horses chances at winning the division. Right now she has a 1/16 of a pole lead.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I guess, I feel like she had the dream trip while the 2 and 7 did not. If she is like 3/1 the Alabama could be a big underlay.

Wonder if Baffert thinks about skipping the Alabama...running in it actually only hurts the horses chances at winning the division. Right now she has a 1/16 of a pole lead.

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

Kinda thought it was an aggressive move for Baffert sending her to this spot so quickly after a big race in May, a big race in June, think he has some other plans. probably a break, the race at Parx and then the BC.

Abel Tasman was due to fly back to California on Monday. Baffert said if Abel Tasman is doing well in a month’s time, he would consider shipping her back for the Alabama. But he noted that Abel Tasman has already shipped three times this year from her California base.

“If she’s doing really well, I’ll do it,” Baffert said.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

l guess im being subjective assuming Elate will love the 10f. I cant see her at 3-1 though. Salty is a massive trip trap horse. AT is probably coming even though the point of her skipping makes sense. Lockdown and Unchained Melody are also pointing to it.

I realize that Unchained Melody ran well in the Mother Goose, but isn't Holy Helena the likely favorite for the Alabama if Abel Tasman doesn't come back for the race (and might be the horse to beat even if she does come)?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cakes44

That middle-move was completely unnecessary and should have lost him the race.

It's amazing that a horse racing observer could look at that ride and criticize it. Absolutely amazing.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's amazing that a horse racing observer could look at that ride and criticize it. Absolutely amazing.

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

Not sure. If we play it out though say he sits back and makes a 4-5 move on the turn, the pace would have been slower for sure.

Now Elate on the good rail like is on a slower pace and gets the first run and has the lead, now the horse is tasked with passing her with that setup.

We will never know how it plays out. I know the effort though was much better than a head win.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Hey, I'm always willing to listen and maybe learn something. But do you think Baffert is happy with the ride if his horse loses by a head?

Yes. His chief competition on paper was eliminated at the break, so he was aggressive into a soft middle split with the best horse. Would you have preferred he dragged Abel Tasman out of the race irrespective of the break/pace and potentially gotten boxed in as the field compressed and Salty went around him nearing the stretch? I see enough of those rides daily in New York to know they almost never work out. And that's not even getting to the race-riding he did in the final furlong, which was just enough to win but not enough to get DQ'ed. To me, Smith's move seems aberrant because there is so little aggressive riding here, when it actually was smart and something to be emulated. Same thing with Bravo's ride on Muqtaser on opening day. It should be a no-brainer to take control when they're going :52 to the half, but so few riders have the balls to do that, which made it look like a Hall of Fame ride in comparison.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yes. His chief competition on paper was eliminated at the break, so he was aggressive into a soft middle split with the best horse. Would you have preferred he dragged Abel Tasman out of the race irrespective of the break/pace and potentially gotten boxed in as the field compressed and Salty went around him nearing the stretch? I see enough of those rides daily in New York to know they almost never work out. And that's not even getting to the race-riding he did in the final furlong, which was just enough to win but not enough to get DQ'ed. To me, Smith's move seems aberrant because there is so little aggressive riding here, when it actually was smart and something to be emulated. Same thing with Bravo's ride on Muqtaser on opening day. It should be a no-brainer to take control when they're going :52 to the half, but so few riders have the balls to do that, which made it look like a Hall of Fame ride in comparison.

He didn't have to drag Abel Tasman out of the race, she tends to settle in the back in all her starts, as she did yesterday. It's one thing to sense a slow pace with a closer and have her sharp early, but Abel Tasman was a good 8 lengths off the front when the field hit the backstretch. Smith then asked her to make up all that ground in a sharp early move. It was risky because even the longshot pacesetters (Summer Luck and Berned) are not completely void of talent, and so were able to make bids approaching the far turn. Abel Tasman had to take a lot of pressure from all sides entering the stretch and Smith, despite being on an overwhelming favorite, had to "race ride" in the stretch to ensure the victory.

He rather could have simply settled in a position similar to fellow closer Daddys Lil Darling, or simply followed his tactics in the Acorn, when he gradually moved Abel Tasman in a position to pounce and blow the race open on the turn. We know she can make up ground quickly.

A similar move against better horses (perhaps Holy Helena or older horses) won't be successful and for all we know, given the battle she was forced to participate in, this particular ride may actually cost her a start in the Alabama.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He rather could have simply settled in a position similar to fellow closer Daddys Lil Darling, or simply followed his tactics in the Acorn, when he gradually moved Abel Tasman in a position to pounce and blow the race open on the turn. We know she can make up ground quickly.

He got extremely lucky in the Acorn when the seas parted for him along the inside. There was no guarantee that would happen again. Instead, he saw Salty miss the break, sensed the slowing pace and took the bull by the horns with the best horse. I wish more riders in New York would be that aggressive.