Weekend Stakes Beyers: Gun Runner 110

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Kasept

57

BOOM!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cakes44

BOOM!

Yeah, it was an interesting race, and while in no way was i as impressed as with shared beliefs debut, 57 seems pretty stupid.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah, it was an interesting race, and while in no way was i as impressed as with shared beliefs debut, 57 seems pretty stupid.

The number is hard to argue with. 3 races earlier a MCLM winner making a 5th start went in :59.04 (41 Beyer). Kimberlea K's race went in :58.20.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah, it was an interesting race, and while in no way was i as impressed as with shared beliefs debut, 57 seems pretty stupid.

The guy who makes the figures there is stupid.

In all seriousness, you're talking about a 2YO firster on a synthetic surface where she blasted off then kind of crawled home. The par for the race is 59. What figure would you give it?

[Indian Charlie]

Again, I realize numbers are impossible to be accurate for every circumstance, and this was a 5f race on synthetic, but her performance was better than a 57 indicates.

Not that I'm calling the figure maker stupid, but to me, that was unrealistic, even knowing that figures dont account for things like how easily a horse wins.

If the par for that type of race is really two points higher than what the winner scored, well, I have trouble accepting that performance was below average. That is absurd.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Again, I realize numbers are impossible to be accurate for every circumstance, and this was a 5f race on synthetic, but her performance was better than a 57 indicates.

Not that I'm calling the figure maker stupid, but to me, that was unrealistic, even knowing that figures dont account for things like how easily a horse wins.

If the par for that type of race is really two points higher than what the winner scored, well, I have trouble accepting that performance was below average. That is absurd.

You clearly have no idea how speed figures are made. By the way, I make the Golden Gate Beyers.

There is no visual element to a final time speed figure. Not one iota. IN fact, in situations where horses are "geared down" late the figures often suffer. That created a big problem in a race like last year's Awesome Again, where California Chrome was clearly slowed to a point where the final time was affected.

Synthetics are very tricky for figure making. While the speed of the surface is very consistent, they are highly dependent on pace. Could I have treated Kimberlea K's race different because it had a fast pace for the level? Sure, there's an argument to be made, but at 5fs, you are sure to get into trouble projecting speed figures based on 1/4 mile times.

The good thing about it is that she is a 2YO filly who was debuting, so there are ample opportunities for her to run and prove me wrong.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You clearly have no idea how speed figures are made. By the way, I make the Golden Gate Beyers.

There is no visual element to a final time speed figure. Not one iota. IN fact, in situations where horses are "geared down" late the figures often suffer. That created a big problem in a race like last year's Awesome Again, where California Chrome was clearly slowed to a point where the final time was affected.

Synthetics are very tricky for figure making. While the speed of the surface is very consistent, they are highly dependent on pace. Could I have treated Kimberlea K's race different because it had a fast pace for the level? Sure, there's an argument to be made, but at 5fs, you are sure to get into trouble projecting speed figures based on 1/4 mile times.

The good thing about it is that she is a 2YO filly who was debuting, so there are ample opportunities for her to run and prove me wrong.

I figured it was you based on your first response to me. And in the rest of my post I was agreeing with there being difficulties in making a figure for that type of race. I don't have an adequate answer for you regarding how I would have scored it, but that race was not below average.

I wasnt trying to insult you or anything like that but I really did expect a significantly higher number and was surprised by the number you came up with.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I figured it was you based on your first response to me. And in the rest of my post I was agreeing with there being difficulties in making a figure for that type of race. I don't have an adequate answer for you regarding how I would have scored it, but that race was not below average.

I wasnt trying to insult you or anything like that but I really did expect a significantly higher number and was surprised by the number you came up with.

The good news is because the fig was SO ordinary you will get a great price on her when she steps up in the Sorrento or maybe Dorf just bypasses that with this monster and goes straight Debutante?