A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation...

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by kp319

I lost a bet on this election, a steak dinner at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn Hats off to you for outperforming every big time pollster around. I hope your horsebets go as well in 2017.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

These polls have been overweighted because there are, traditionally, more Democrats than Republicans. The past two elections were even more heavily weighted because of the Obama enthusiasm among the African American community, who traditionally have not gone out to vote in the same numbers as whites. They never adjusted these back down, so she has always been showing higher.

Problem - They overplayed their hand in the early voting (EV) states as her turnout has been anemic relative to Republican support. Florida's Dem EV, for instance, is alarmingly much lower than they had expected, and she now needs an Obama-like turnout on tomorrow to carry the state. Nate Sliver has all but given FL to Trump.

The same scenario has played out in NC which has been a solid Left/Leaning Left state until EV closed, it is now a toss up/leaning Right state. CO and NV are in the same boat. She is in serious danger of losing MI and PA, and has unscheduled events there in a desperate attempt to shore up her support.

There is full out panic in the campaign. You can see it in Robbie Mook's face as he is being interviewed today. They know there is no way they are going to get the turnout they need to win AZ, OH, FL, NC. They are struggling to hold leaning left states of NH, NV, CO, MI and, if EV turnout is any indication, will lose all 4.

I didn't think I'd be as confident the evening before ED, but I don't have much doubt about President Trump Wednesday morning.

That turned out to be a great analysis Dan

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by kp319

I lost a bet on this election, a steak dinner at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn Hats off to you for outperforming every big time pollster around. I hope your horsebets go as well in 2017.

Originally Posted by geeker2

That turned out to be a great analysis Dan

Thanks guys - following this closely has been one of the most fascinating experiences I've ever gotten myself involved with.

Coach mentioned Bill Mitchell earlier, and really were it not for his selflessness, taking the time to explain the science behind why certain groups (and subgroups) get weighted and how to determine accurate weighting, and offering explanations on how to interpret the demographics, I would likely not have gotten as involved.

Dude deserves immense credit. He was tireless and when he wasn't helping breakdown what was coming out, he was getting attacked, regularly, by "polling geniuses" like Frank Luntz and Nate Silver.

Turns out there was a perfect storm of over estimating Clinton support, underestimating college graduate (*educated*) whites, and most importantly the fact that Blacks and legal Latinos seem care more about good jobs & safe communities than they do some invisible, blind allegiance to the Democratic Party. He carried 10% more of the Latino vote than did Romney in 2012, and similar numbers among Blacks.

Only one poll, the LA Times/USC poll - utilized an enthusiasm algorithm Which had Trump on top virtually every single day since the conventions. In an ordinary election cycle, this likely would not have come into play and because of this, was considered an outlier by 538 and not given it's proper credence.

[Pants II]

oh 'memba the correspondents dinner?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Pants II

oh 'memba the correspondents dinner?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4

Trump has the last laugh...I love it Coach

[Rupert Pupkin]

On CNN right now they are showing that there are thousands of people protesting right now in New York. These people are so pathetic. What are they protesting? They lost the election. They are a bunch of cry babies. I can understand them being upset. I certainly was not happy with the results in 2008 or 2012. But I wasn't going to protest. There was nothing to protest. My candidates lost fair and square, end of story. There was nothing I could do. I had to accept the result.

Obama and Clinton actually showed some class today. I wish I could say the same thing for these idiots who are protesting.

[Pants II]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

On CNN right now they are showing that there are thousands of people protesting right now in New York. These people are so pathetic. What are they protesting? They lost the election. They are a bunch of cry babies. I can understand them being upset. I certainly was not happy with the results in 2008 or 2012. But I wasn't going to protest. There was nothing to protest. My candidates lost fair and square, end of story. There was nothing I could do. I had to accept the result.

Obama and Clinton actually showed some class today. I wish I could say the same thing for these idiots who are protesting.

I advise all patriots to avoid big cities if at all possible these next 71 days of this failed agitator's reign.

It will all be over soon and the stuttering p.ussy prep school/Harvard douchecanoe will have to go preemptive and pardon half the beltway.

Let their dumb brainwashed sheep tear their cities up.

More construction work for the real Americans when Trump takes command.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Pants II

I advise all patriots to avoid big cities if at all possible these next 71 days of this failed agitator's reign.

It will all be over soon and the stuttering p.ussy prep school/Harvard douchecanoe will have to go preemptive and pardon half the beltway.

Let their dumb brainwashed sheep tear their cities up.

More construction work for the real Americans when Trump takes command.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

On CNN right now they are showing that there are thousands of people protesting right now in New York. These people are so pathetic. What are they protesting? They lost the election. They are a bunch of cry babies. I can understand them being upset. I certainly was not happy with the results in 2008 or 2012. But I wasn't going to protest. There was nothing to protest. My candidates lost fair and square, end of story. There was nothing I could do. I had to accept the result.

Obama and Clinton actually showed some class today. I wish I could say the same thing for these idiots who are protesting.

Exactly. What are they protesting? Was the Constitution compromised? Were election laws broken? Was the irony meter just pegged by that last question?

No. this is nothing but a temper tantrum. We have a generation of adult-sized children suffering from severe cases of arrested development.

Laughably encouraged by the Alinskyite far-left that have pervaded our "higher learning" institutions (the ones that excused these special snowflakes from their responsibilities today to reflect with *quite time* to *cope* with the iiiGASP!!! election of Donald Trump).

Once again, the ceaseless corruption of the MSM continues with non-stop coverage of these "peaceful protests" rather than calling them what they are. Of course.