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#1
03-04-2016, 06:52 AM
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And MORE jms from Fornatale!
Computer geek Sebes mines data for winners http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-c...s-data-winners Competition runs deep in Jim Sebes’s family. He has two younger cousins who competed at the national level in sports. Nick Sebes played football at Stanford University, where he still holds some sprinting records, and Doug Sebes is a competitive natural bodybuilder who has won some major events. These days, Jim Sebes is doing his competing on the National Handicapping Championship Tour, where he is in 16th place. Sebes, who won last weekend’s NHCQualify.com contest, started going to the races when he was a kid. Like so many horseplayers, an early taste of success fueled his fandom. “I had a friend who used to go to Liberty Bell with his uncle,” Sebes said. “I followed the races in the paper and gave him two bucks to bet on a horse named Vinegar, who won. You know the rest of that story.” Sebes later became a computer consultant who manages clinical trials. He developed a fun weekly tradition when he was working at the World Trade Center in New York City in the late 1980s. “I would collect five bucks from several of my colleagues every Thursday and would make a run to OTB at lunchtime to place a bet,” he said. “If we won, then we took a long lunch on Friday with the winnings at Luna in Little Italy. If it was a big score, then we’d follow it up at Jeremy’s under the Brooklyn Bridge after work.” His racing activities weren’t limited to the city. By the 1990s, he was heading to the Jersey Shore for weekends. “Monmouth Park was our stop on any cold, cloudy, or rainy Saturday,” he said. Even then, he didn’t get serious about handicapping until Smarty Jones’s nearly historic run in 2004. One key to his success was reading the work of pace expert and early computer handicapper Tom Brohammer. “I read [‘Modern Pace Handicapping’], which laid things out in a language I understand well,” he said. “I use several different software tools and keep a statistical model of different attributes and look for trends on price horses,” he added, “but when there are none, I will also fall back on classic strategies such as looking for a change that may move a price horse forward along with jockeys that may move a horse up based upon the horse’s style of running and the expected pace of the race.” Contests entered the picture three years ago, and he’s qualified for the NHC in each of the three years he’s been a tour member. His biggest success in a tournament was his 11th-place finish at the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge. He’s also not averse to backing up his contest opinions with his wallet. He cashed for more than $10,000 in Fair Grounds’s pick three that was also part of the NHCQualify.com sequence. He believes his multipronged handicapping approach is essential for him to be the best contest player he can be. “In contest play, you must be flexible looking for price horses,” he said. “If you employ a single strategy, everything needs to break your way during a contest to be competitive.” He’s also constantly boning up on strategy. “I reread parts of ‘The Winning Contest Player’ on my way to different events,” he said. When Sebes played in the 2015 NHC, he thought back to his competitive cousins. “Following them was inspiring and really got my competitive juices flowing again,” he said. “Contest play on this level is an amazing outlet.”
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. 
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#2
03-04-2016, 07:51 AM
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Good stuff there
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#4
03-04-2016, 09:48 AM
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I'm honored to have played a losing $324 pick 4 ticket with that guy...
 Great stuff. Accolades well deserved. Next year = auxiliary room.
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Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed
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#5
03-04-2016, 12:00 PM
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Nice, Jim!
Jeremy's Ale House, one of my favorite bars in Manhattan. Some of the best fried clams out there anywhere! I would not be surprised if on one of those days that I was at a table next you boozing it up with my boys. No better place to start on St. Paddy's day if you go for the entire day bender!
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#6
03-05-2016, 07:51 AM
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Thanks guys.
Billy Whoever cashes at NHC next year buys @ http://whiskyattic.com/ Ed Good thing we are not there today god knows how much we'd put in the Pick 6 at Gulfstream. Nick Too funny it was always so crowded on fridays We always were in the street and I had no idea they even served food.
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see you at the Fish and Chips in January......one way or another
Hybrid Mode
