Congrats jms62! ~~ And a Fornatale blog profile!

[senator L]

Very impressive - congratulations

Overall NHCQ winner Jim Sebes, who uses a statistical model to assist in his handicapping, thought there were several positive angles. "I thought she'd come running late and my model showed that type of style would fit this scenario," said Sebes,

Any chance you can expand on this? (the stats part)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by senator L

Very impressive - congratulations

Overall NHCQ winner Jim Sebes, who uses a statistical model to assist in his handicapping, thought there were several positive angles. "I thought she'd come running late and my model showed that type of style would fit this scenario," said Sebes,

Any chance you can expand on this? (the stats part)

Thanks for the Kudos. I keep a database of a number of different factors gathered from several software packages I use. I look for trends at the track distance surface I am playing along with Long shot factors. Sometimes I get them and sometimes I am fighting yesterdays war.. Unfortunately since I am playing competitively I can't give any further details which would allow someone to reverse engineer. Read Brohammers book for a basis.. Having said that you absolutely need to be flexible and can't follow a black box approach. Often times my analysis puts me on a low priced horse in the middle of a tournament when I am in the need for price. At that point you need to look at other reasons why a horse can jump up. I know you are looking for details but unfortunately this is the best I can do. I will give the details when Belicheck hands over his game plan to Rex Ryan

[GenuineRisk]

What I love is that your response to all our praise was, "Thanks, but I'm still mad at myself for not doing an AP-All exacta in the BCC." Spoken like a true handicapper. You're a class act, Jim.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by jms62

Thanks for the Kudos. I keep a database of a number of different factors gathered from several software packages I use. I look for trends at the track distance surface I am playing along with Long shot factors. Sometimes I get them and sometimes I am fighting yesterdays war.. Unfortunately since I am playing competitively I can't give any further details which would allow someone to reverse engineer. Read Brohammers book for a basis.. Having said that you absolutely need to be flexible and can't follow a black box approach. Often times my analysis puts me on a low priced horse in the middle of a tournament when I am in the need for price. At that point you need to look at other reasons why a horse can jump up. I know you are looking for details but unfortunately this is the best I can do. I will give the details when Belicheck hands over his game plan to Rex Ryan

He will not give it up....even after a bourbon or five

[senator L]

Thanks for the info and to me it's a lot.
It's no different than anyone else, find some angles
and put forth great effort