Liam's Map=Cross Traffic part 2?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Jasper131

Liam's Map to the Dirt Mile, which is terrible for the Breeders Cup. A horse of his caliber should be going in the Classic...I hope the BC people look at this as a reason to discontinue the Dirt Mile which would further strengthen the Classic and the Sprint, its two foundation dirt races.

what about honor code going to the classic instead of the mile? doesn't that hurt this whole argument?
mile races on dirt are a stud maker, the bc wants a met mile/type race.
and when a big turf euro comes over and runs in the classic.....does anyone complain it's watering down the turf race?

[Jasper131]

Originally Posted by Danzig

what about honor code going to the classic instead of the mile? doesn't that hurt this whole argument?
mile races on dirt are a stud maker, the bc wants a met mile/type race.

Honor Code going to the Classic HELPS this argument since he is almost certainly going to be better at a mile than he is at a mile and a quarter. And yet his connections are still eschewing the AAA race for the big league race because they know it will be better for the long-term value of the horse if he were to win. Honor Code's connections are doing a) the smart thing for the horse's long-term value and b) the best thing for the sport/event.

And the BC cannot have a Met Mile type race when a) the best horses in the country run in the Classic [a problem that the Met Mile does not face since the only race you have to skip to run in it is the Foster] and b) they have run exactly two one-turn BC Dirt Miles anyway.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Jasper131

Honor Code going to the Classic HELPS this argument since he is almost certainly going to be better at a mile than he is at a mile and a quarter. And yet his connections are still eschewing the AAA race for the big league race because they know it will be better for the long-term value of the horse if he were to win. Honor Code's connections are doing a) the smart thing for the horse's long-term value and b) the best thing for the sport/event.

And the BC cannot have a Met Mile type race when a) the best horses in the country run in the Classic [a problem that the Met Mile does not face since the only race you have to skip to run in it is the Foster] and b) they have run exactly two one-turn BC Dirt Miles anyway.

this only makes sense if the argument was 'is the mile as prestigious as the classic?'. no one would ever argue that.
my point, in regards to the original question, is that the mile doesn't water down the classic. honor code going to the classic supports that argument.
I'd imagine most figured HC for the mile, but they are going for broke-which is what many were saying people would not do, that they'd go the 'easier' route.
but a mile race isn't an easier race if one has a classic distance horse. ducking tough competition is one thing, putting a horse at a distance he doesn't excel at is another.
not all horses are sprinters, nor are they meant for 10f. the bc mile is for those horses.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

You say the mile waters down the classic, and use a horse not opting for the mile to make your point? Interesting

You are setting up a straw man and knocking it down here.

You were the one who mentioned Honor Code, suggesting that he should be in the Mile rather than the Classic. Jasper's response to that suggestion thoroughly explained why his connections would go against the presumption that he should be in the Mile.

Meanwhile, why would one need further evidence beyond Liam's Map's defection that the Mile waters down the Classic? Or does every horse in the Classic have to defect to the Mile to prove the point? Beholder, American Pharoah, Smooth Roller, etc. would also have a prime chance in the Mile.

[freddymo]

I believe Liams Map is running in a race he is vey likely to win simply to get WPT in winners circle on a huge day so they can garner more publicity as a big time Partnership group and sell more partnerships. It's a huge opportunity to promote their brand. Is Map going to run in '16? I would assume so if WPT just bought in right? Perhaps the theory is run the BC Mile(70 yards) followed by Cigar Donn? To me this seems to be about WPT wanting to gain traction selling the yearlings they just purchased.

VERY Bad for racing, good for selling partnerships I guess?

[Uncle Daddy]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I believe Liams Map is running in a race he is vey likely to win simply to get WPT in winners circle on a huge day so they can garner more publicity as a big time Partnership group and sell more partnerships. It's a huge opportunity to promote their brand. Is Map going to run in '16? I would assume so if WPT just bought in right? Perhaps the theory is run the BC Mile(70 yards) followed by Cigar Donn? To me this seems to be about WPT wanting to gain traction selling the yearlings they just purchased.

VERY Bad for racing, good for selling partnerships I guess?

Your assumption is original owners don't call the shots and because WPT took a stake they make the decisions? Not possible the original owners think he fits in a G1 mile for $600K and that he might not have the stuff to defeat the big 3 in the Classic?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

Your assumption is original owners don't call the shots and because WPT took a stake they make the decisions? Not possible the original owners think he fits in a G1 mile for $600K and that he might not have the stuff to defeat the big 3 in the Classic?

Whoever is responsible for this decision made a bad one. Period. It really isn't even debatable.

The decisions cannot be result oriented in ANY way. From an expected value perspective his purse earning figure to be similar for both races ( 50% in a $1 million race giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be even money equal $500K in expected earnings while roughly 10:1, maybe too high but close, in a $5 million race gives him the same $500K in expected earnings ). However, the potential intrinsic gains by running in the Classic FAR outweigh those of the Dirt Mile. In the Dirt Mile, he rates to gain NOTHING from a breeding perspective with a win, and could in fact hurt himself ( probably slightly ) with a loss. However, a win, or even a good second, has real intrinsic value for him as a stallion, and a loss would do next to nothing to tarnish his value.

This is what matters...not whether you or I, or anybody, think he can win either race, or where he has a better chance. That nonsense is irrelevant and, frankly, just gets in the way of making the clear correct decision. To me, it is inarguable.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whoever is responsible for this decision made a bad one. Period. It really isn't even debatable.

The decisions cannot be result oriented in ANY way. From an expected value perspective his purse earning figure to be similar for both races ( 50% in a $1 million race giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be even money equal $500K in expected earnings while roughly 10:1, maybe too high but close, in a $5 million race gives him the same $500K in expected earnings ). However, the potential intrinsic gains by running in the Classic FAR outweigh those of the Dirt Mile. In the Dirt Mile, he rates to gain NOTHING from a breeding perspective with a win, and could in fact hurt himself ( probably slightly ) with a loss. However, a win, or even a good second, has real intrinsic value for him as a stallion, and a loss would do next to nothing to tarnish his value.

This is what matters...not whether you or I, or anybody, think he can win either race, or where he has a better chance. That nonsense is irrelevant and, frankly, just gets in the way of making the clear correct decision. To me, it is inarguable.

this is why i really don't think anyone who thinks they have a good chance in the bcc will skip to try to get the 'easy money' in the mile. everyone knows it's the big race of the year for older horses.
and when you have true milers, entering there when you have a 9-10f horse isn't exactly 'easy money' or a guarantee of a win, or a board finish for that matter.
we have a turf sprint, mile, and then the the turf classic-with none of the pearl clutching. i don't get it.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You are setting up a straw man and knocking it down here.

You were the one who mentioned Honor Code, suggesting that he should be in the Mile rather than the Classic. Jasper's response to that suggestion thoroughly explained why his connections would go against the presumption that he should be in the Mile.

Meanwhile, why would one need further evidence beyond Liam's Map's defection that the Mile waters down the Classic? Or does every horse in the Classic have to defect to the Mile to prove the point? Beholder, American Pharoah, Smooth Roller, etc. would also have a prime chance in the Mile.

A mile around 1 turn is a significant and cool race, at mile and 70 yards around 2 turns its foolish trophy grab.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You are setting up a straw man and knocking it down here.

You were the one who mentioned Honor Code, suggesting that he should be in the Mile rather than the Classic. Jasper's response to that suggestion thoroughly explained why his connections would go against the presumption that he should be in the Mile.

Meanwhile, why would one need further evidence beyond Liam's Map's defection that the Mile waters down the Classic? Or does every horse in the Classic have to defect to the Mile to prove the point? Beholder, American Pharoah, Smooth Roller, etc. would also have a prime chance in the Mile.

I never suggested that regarding honor code.
and I thought the message not a good one, which is why I went right back and deleted almost immediately.
the question was -does the mile water down the classic field? I say no.
honor code going in the classic helps make that point. he has done well at a mile, and has never run 10f-but rather than take the safe way out, they are going for broke. I say bravo for them.
also, euros leave the turf to go for the big 10f race, only making it more intriguing.

Originally Posted by freddymo

A mile around 1 turn is a significant and cool race, at mile and 70 yards around 2 turns its foolish trophy grab.

this is a real issue. to set up a race, and then have it not be run at the actual distance...makes no sense.
I thought the original races were fine, and the ones added since don't really do a thing for me.
but anyone with a good horse who they think can go 10f will go for it all in the bcc. if they don't have the horse for it, how would them not being in the classic 'water down the classic'?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

the question was -does the mile water down the classic field? I say no. honor code going in the classic helps make that point. he has done well at a mile, and has never run 10f-but rather than take the safe way out, they are going for broke. I say bravo for them.

They are hardly going for broke by running Honor Code in the Classic. This horse, unbeaten at 9f, was earmarked as the winter book favorite for the Kentucky Derby last year and has been targeting the Classic throughout the year. If he has not started at 10f yet its because outside the Big Cap, Gold Cup, and Pacific Classic in California, there are no Grade 1 10f in NA for older horses other than the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I suppose he could have run in the Grade 2 Suburban (which oscillates b/w 9 and 10f), but clearly Shug McGaughey has been spacing out his races.

Again, the simple fact that Liam's Map (who was generating enthusiastic remarks for the Classic since his Whitney effort) has defected proves that the Mile waters down the Classic. Are we to believe that Liam's Map was never targeting the Classic? Are we to believe that if there were no BC Dirt Mile, Liam's Map would stay in the barn on BC Day?

Why does every horse capable at a mile have to defect to the Dirt Mile to prove the point? Isn't Beholder and Smooth Roller arguably "milers"?

but anyone with a good horse who they think can go 10f will go for it all in the bcc. if they don't have the horse for it, how would them not being in the classic 'water down the classic'?

So suddenly Liam's Map, who was mentioned for the Classic since August, was never a Classic contender?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

They are hardly going for broke by running Honor Code in the Classic. This horse, unbeaten at 9f, was earmarked as the winter book favorite for the Kentucky Derby last year and has been targeting the Classic throughout the year. If he has not started at 10f yet its because outside the Big Cap, Gold Cup, and Pacific Classic in California, there are no Grade 1 10f in NA for older horses other than the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I suppose he could have run in the Grade 2 Suburban (which oscillates b/w 9 and 10f), but clearly Shug McGaughey has been spacing out his races.

Again, the simple fact that Liam's Map (who was generating enthusiastic remarks for the Classic since his Whitney effort) has defected proves that the Mile waters down the Classic. Are we to believe that Liam's Map was never targeting the Classic? Are we to believe that if there were no BC Dirt Mile, Liam's Map would stay in the barn on BC Day?

Why does every horse capable at a mile have to defect to the Dirt Mile to prove the point? Isn't Beholder and Smooth Roller arguably "milers"?


So suddenly Liam's Map, who was mentioned for the Classic since August, was never a Classic contender?

you'd have to find out from LM's connections why they are going in the 'mile' instead.
and i don't know if he would stay in the barn or not. i do know only 14 can enter.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

mile races on dirt are a stud maker, the bc wants a met mile/type race.

This is an old cliche that is decidedly false. Perhaps, because breeders nowadays prefer speedy precocious types they might want to push for milers as stallions doesn't mean those races are "stud makers". In fact, what is there, all of 3 Grade 1 at a flat mile for 3yo and up in North America on the dirt?

Let's see what recent stallions (with offspring of racing age) have been "selected for" by winning these races:

Met Mile:
Quality Road, Divine Park, Corinthian, Silver Train, Ghostzapper, Pico Central, Aldebaran, Swept Overboard, Exciting Story, Yankee Victor.

Cigar Mile:
Jersey Town, Kodiak Kowboy, Tale of Ekati, Daaher, Discreet Cat, Purge, Lion Tamer, Congaree, El Corredor

Dirt Mile:
Albertus Maximus, Corinthian

A handful of useful types, but not exactly lighting the world on fire. Ghostzapper is probably the best of the bunch, but he started out very slow.

Meanwhile, the stronger miler type stallions like Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Speightstown, More Than Ready, Tale of the Cat, War Front, Henny Hughes, Munnings, Street Boss, and Midnight Lute certainly didn't win and with few exceptions rarely competed in those top mile races that are such great "stud makers". They focused on sprints and the odd middle distance race here and there.

and when a big turf euro comes over and runs in the classic.....does anyone complain it's watering down the turf race?

No. The assumption can be made that the top Euro horses are superior to anything the US produces (in fact, most of our top turf horses are ex-second string Euros). The configuration and quality of NA turf courses are enough to keep most away. If Coolmore and Godolphin (basically the only two that toss a turf horse onto the dirt) want to produce the "perfect stallion", its quite telling they tend to use the BC Classic and not the Dirt Mile.