Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers: Pharoah 105; Honor Code 112

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's part of my problem. To me, it seems like he is lacking objectivity, which is a must when working with numbers, like he does. He's run several very fast races, but because he THINKS AP hasn't, he adjusts his numbers downwards.

Again, maybe I'm missing something, but using the Brooklyn to downgrade the Belmont seems pretty far fetched in this instance.

Why do you think it's far fetched? It's the way speed figures are calculated. Or do you mean that the Brooklyn figs should have been higher? That's a reasonable proposition, IMO.

If AP had gotten a 110 BSF for the Belmont, that pretty much forces a 106 for the top two finishers in the Brooklyn. (a half-sec = about 3 lengths; 3 lengths = about 3.5 BSF's at 1.5 miles). Coach Inge ran a 104 last time out. His next best in 9 starts was a 93 BSF. But giving a 106 for the Brooklyn wouldn't have seemed unreasonable to me.

Likewise, a 106 for V. E. Day doesn't seem in left field. V.E.Day earned a 102 winning the Travers last year. He earned BSF's of 93 and 95 in his remaining 2014 starts, but encountered enough trip trouble to push those figs well past 100, IMO. His only start in 2015 earned a 96 on grass. To me it's completely believable that he could run a 106 as a 4-yr-old.

So, just using the top 2 horses in the Brooklyn, it looks like the figs could have been higher. Beyer's team uses all the horses in the races, so maybe they thought there were compelling reasons for the lower figs. cmorioles apparently didn't feel that way? At any rate, I can understand how AP's low fig would be annoying to some.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Why do you think it's far fetched? It's the way speed figures are calculated. Or do you mean that the Brooklyn figs should have been higher? That's a reasonable proposition, IMO.

If AP had gotten a 110 BSF for the Belmont, that pretty much forces a 106 for the top two finishers in the Brooklyn. (a half-sec = about 3 lengths; 3 lengths = about 3.5 BSF's at 1.5 miles). Coach Inge ran a 104 last time out. His next best in 9 starts was a 93 BSF. But giving a 106 for the Brooklyn wouldn't have seemed unreasonable to me.

Likewise, a 106 for V. E. Day doesn't seem in left field. V.E.Day earned a 102 winning the Travers last year. He earned BSF's of 93 and 95 in his remaining 2014 starts, but encountered enough trip trouble to push those figs well past 100, IMO. His only start in 2015 earned a 96 on grass. To me it's completely believable that he could run a 106 as a 4-yr-old.

So, just using the top 2 horses in the Brooklyn, it looks like the figs could have been higher. Beyer's team uses all the horses in the races, so maybe they thought there were compelling reasons for the lower figs. cmorioles apparently didn't feel that way? At any rate, I can understand how AP's low fig would be annoying to some.

I don't know that I can explain myself on this topic, on a message board. I find that I am lacking the ability to convey what I feel is wrong.

And it's not really that he got a low fig that I find annoying. It's the seemingly arbitrary use or non use of split variants to make a race fit what the figure makers think it should be.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Why do you think it's far fetched? It's the way speed figures are calculated. Or do you mean that the Brooklyn figs should have been higher? That's a reasonable proposition, IMO.

If AP had gotten a 110 BSF for the Belmont, that pretty much forces a 106 for the top two finishers in the Brooklyn. (a half-sec = about 3 lengths; 3 lengths = about 3.5 BSF's at 1.5 miles). Coach Inge ran a 104 last time out. His next best in 9 starts was a 93 BSF. But giving a 106 for the Brooklyn wouldn't have seemed unreasonable to me.

Likewise, a 106 for V. E. Day doesn't seem in left field. V.E.Day earned a 102 winning the Travers last year. He earned BSF's of 93 and 95 in his remaining 2014 starts, but encountered enough trip trouble to push those figs well past 100, IMO. His only start in 2015 earned a 96 on grass. To me it's completely believable that he could run a 106 as a 4-yr-old.

So, just using the top 2 horses in the Brooklyn, it looks like the figs could have been higher. Beyer's team uses all the horses in the races, so maybe they thought there were compelling reasons for the lower figs. cmorioles apparently didn't feel that way? At any rate, I can understand how AP's low fig would be annoying to some.

I listened to Beyer very closely today. It's pretty clear he thinks AP is beating up on a lot of ordinary colts or catching fast colts when they arent firing, for me that's very unrealistic. I also heard him say it was a wonderful accomplishment. Whatever. By his measure(BSF) Rachel would have dusted AP off and beat him by 5l's in Preakness? I dont know, not sure I really care. Nobody can convince me the Florida Derby was a very fast race but Beyer believes it was.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I listened to Beyer very closely today. It's pretty clear he thinks AP is beating up on a lot of ordinary colts or catching fast colts when they arent firing, for me that's very unrealistic. I also heard him say it was a wonderful accomplishment. Whatever. By his measure(BSF) Rachel would have dusted AP off and beat him by 5l's in Preakness? I dont know, not sure I really care.

This is one of the problems with the Triple Crown hoopla, and flavor-of-the-months in general, as it dismisses other great champions we witnessed. How quickly the Zenyatta circus erased the impact of Azeri on the racing landscape. That Harlem Globetrotter-like stalwart also took quite a bit of shine off the filly you just mentioned, Rachel Alexandra.

A quick review of Rachel Alexandra highlights one of the all time great campaigns not only in terms of accomplishment, but in terms of pace, final time, and field quality.

While we are inundated with quasi-physiological assessments of American Pharoah's thoracic-pelvic limb coupling and whispers of speed figure conspiracy theories, no such mumbo jumbo is needed when analyzing Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign.

Facile wins in the midwest in preps for the bigger dances parallel American Pharoah's romps at Oaklawn. The Kentucky Oaks was one for the ages, stalking Gabby's Golden Gal, from the same crew that brought you Firing Line and likewise coming off a blowout at Sunland Park, Rachel Alexandra disposed of her as she pleased and won by 20. Gabby's Golden Gal won a Grade 1 in her next start, and did so again at 4.

The Preakness saw RA lock horns with Big Drama, a subsequent BC Sprint winner and champion sprinter, then draw off and hold sway. Ironically, American Pharoah's sire, Pioneerof The Nile was seen with brief speed before pack-peddling and easing through the stretch---sound like Materiality to anyone? Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile's Santa Anita wins in the winter preps should be dismissed too, based on this one run. By the way, he never ran again.

The Mother Goose against fillies seems like a joke, with just 3 horses, but Flashing would go on to win two Grade 1s in the summer and Malibu Prayer won a Grade 1 at 4, so quality was not in question. Certainly the pace that was set was blazing. 1:08+ for 6f. RA won by nearly 20 again, in a stakes record.

They took it to her in the Haskell. A sloppy track. Munnings (sire of Om, who dusted American Pharoah first time out), fresh off huge sprint wins against both fellow 3yos and older horses engages RA immediately while Kent Desormeaux decides to put the pressure early from the inside down the backstretch to try and crack her facade. She won by 6.

Visually and time-wise, the Woodward was a letdown, but nevertheless she won and defeating older males in one of the prestige events on calendar was the only thing that could put a worthy cap on what she had done earlier in the year.

That she showed only flashes of the same brilliance at 4 is no matter. In 5 races at 3 she was tested in all ways by all types and could not be beaten.

American Pharoah could not be beaten, either, and so was able to achieve a rare feat, but the kitchen sink was hardly thrown at him...unless 2 for 9 Frosted and 2 for 7 Firing Line are worthy substitutes for all the things Rachel Alexandra overcame.

[Indian Charlie]

By using Rollo logic, Munnings would have won this years triple crown because his son 'dusted' AP in their debuts, and AP is slow because his sire lost a race.

[Pants II]

Is it possible that AP's competition had smaller hearts?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

By using Rollo logic, Munnings would have won this years triple crown because his son 'dusted' AP in their debuts, and AP is slow because his sire lost a race.

I figured you would grab the bit and runoff with the little digressions, rather than the actual content, which centered on Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign. Nothing new there.

Hopefully, Freddy will bring more intelligence and focus to this discussion.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I figured you would grab the bit and runoff with the little digressions, rather than the actual content, which centered on Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign. Nothing new there.

Hopefully, Freddy will bring more intelligence and focus to this discussion.

Funny.

You've been the one bringing the little digressions to the table.

Nothing new there at all.

At this point, I'd take Smooth Operator for intelligence and focus.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Funny.

You've been the one bringing the little digressions to the table.

Nothing new there at all.

At this point, I'd take Smooth Operator for intelligence and focus.

Of course I brought the digressions in, because I am actually posting content on this thread, rather than "look at me" strutting and feigned vexation about how it is possible that all details regarding American Pharoah's Triple Crown performances are not afforded otherworldly status simply because he won all 3 races.

That you would focus on those coincidental tidbits rather than the main thrust of the post shows you have little to offer in terms of response. This goes along with your original posts, which either disparage other people for holding a contrary opinion, or spew vague fluff about being too inarticulate to explain why the Brooklyn race shouldn't be compared to the Belmont Stakes, or ridiculous meaningless drivel about American Pharoah's stride.

Carry on.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I figured you would grab the bit and runoff with the little digressions, rather than the actual content, which centered on Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign. Nothing new there.

Hopefully, Freddy will bring more intelligence and focus to this discussion.

I loved Rachel like no filly/mare. Her campaign was stunning her Haskell was incredible and she is an all time filly Maybe and I mean maybe she is second behind Personal Ensign but I am splitting hairs. I never had any use for Zenyatta not because I didnt realize she was wonderful just because she was handled not to lose and save her Apple Blossom/BCC's she was to conservatively spotted(maybe that's why she lasted?).

I realize its impossible and kind of fruitless to guess who was faster but for the sake of pure conjecture and fun. I think she could never beat AP. Again its just an opinion and impossible to have any faith in.

As for the Beyer fig I agree its rock solid and guessed it the night before. Beyer has not been impressed with AP's races, he has been impressed with accomplishments. Kind of sounds like the ole Cigar rhetoric you know he wins but he never wins running fast. I think if Materialty would have won by a nose against AP or Frosted and either of those 2 were 3rd 5 .5 lengths back Beyer would have used 108/09 because it would have given more credence to the Florida Derby Fig. To me the fig is just about as relevant as my opinion on who would have won a hypothetical Preakness between AP and Rachel.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

As for the Beyer fig I agree its rock solid and guessed it the night before. Beyer has not been impressed with AP's races, he has been impressed with accomplishments. Kind of sounds like the ole Cigar rhetoric you know he wins but he never wins running fast. I think if Materialty would have won by a nose against AP or Frosted and either of those 2 were 3rd 5 .5 lengths back Beyer would have used 108/09 because it would have given more credence to the Florida Derby Fig. To me the fig is just about as relevant as my opinion on who would have won a hypothetical Preakness between AP and Rachel.

I'm not sure why you are hung up on the Florida Derby figure as if it is out of line. Does it matter? Upstart and Materiality where non-factors in their classic starts, that doesn't mean the figure for one race is bad. Both ran far below expectations and in fact have running lines that suggests something physically is amiss.

For years now, people have commented on certain big-figure horses at Gulfstream turning back into "pumpkins" outside it's friendly confines. Someone would have to go back and look closer at the average speed figures down there versus those by the same horses at other racetracks to perhaps identify a trend of this happening.

An obvious explanation for this is the permissive medication rules in Florida, which actually allows horses to be treated not only with lasix, but also with a potent fast-acting anti-inflammatory drug on raceday. It would be interesting to see what percentage of starters are treated with this drug.

Finally, it can't be at all shocking to think that figure wise, the Belmont Stakes tends to get lower figures than other races. It's a 12 furlong race. Just because a horse can run a 112 BSF for 9f, doesn't mean it will run a similar figure at 12f.

See Coach Inge's numbers...if you think they are relevant.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

By using Rollo logic, Munnings would have won this years triple crown because his son 'dusted' AP in their debuts, and AP is slow because his sire lost a race.

The one thing I agree with Beyer on as it relates to AP besides the correct BSF is that the acid test will come against Older and IF he wins BCC all this conjecture on his speed and quality will rinse away.

IC. not all 105's are equal save the number

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

This is one of the problems with the Triple Crown hoopla, and flavor-of-the-months in general, as it dismisses other great champions we witnessed. How quickly the Zenyatta circus erased the impact of Azeri on the racing landscape. That Harlem Globetrotter-like stalwart also took quite a bit of shine off the filly you just mentioned, Rachel Alexandra.

A quick review of Rachel Alexandra highlights one of the all time great campaigns not only in terms of accomplishment, but in terms of pace, final time, and field quality.

While we are inundated with quasi-physiological assessments of American Pharoah's thoracic-pelvic limb coupling and whispers of speed figure conspiracy theories, no such mumbo jumbo is needed when analyzing Rachel Alexandra's 3yo campaign.

Facile wins in the midwest in preps for the bigger dances parallel American Pharoah's romps at Oaklawn. The Kentucky Oaks was one for the ages, stalking Gabby's Golden Gal, from the same crew that brought you Firing Line and likewise coming off a blowout at Sunland Park, Rachel Alexandra disposed of her as she pleased and won by 20. Gabby's Golden Gal won a Grade 1 in her next start, and did so again at 4.

The Preakness saw RA lock horns with Big Drama, a subsequent BC Sprint winner and champion sprinter, then draw off and hold sway. Ironically, American Pharoah's sire, Pioneerof The Nile was seen with brief speed before pack-peddling and easing through the stretch---sound like Materiality to anyone? Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile's Santa Anita wins in the winter preps should be dismissed too, based on this one run. By the way, he never ran again.

The Mother Goose against fillies seems like a joke, with just 3 horses, but Flashing would go on to win two Grade 1s in the summer and Malibu Prayer won a Grade 1 at 4, so quality was not in question. Certainly the pace that was set was blazing. 1:08+ for 6f. RA won by nearly 20 again, in a stakes record.

They took it to her in the Haskell. A sloppy track. Munnings (sire of Om, who dusted American Pharoah first time out), fresh off huge sprint wins against both fellow 3yos and older horses engages RA immediately while Kent Desormeaux decides to put the pressure early from the inside down the backstretch to try and crack her facade. She won by 6.

Visually and time-wise, the Woodward was a letdown, but nevertheless she won and defeating older males in one of the prestige events on calendar was the only thing that could put a worthy cap on what she had done earlier in the year.

That she showed only flashes of the same brilliance at 4 is no matter. In 5 races at 3 she was tested in all ways by all types and could not be beaten.

American Pharoah could not be beaten, either, and so was able to achieve a rare feat, but the kitchen sink was hardly thrown at him...unless 2 for 9 Frosted and 2 for 7 Firing Line are worthy substitutes for all the things Rachel Alexandra overcame.

Her Martha Washington at OP is breathtaking, Was at Haskell in paddock with her and she was such a grand filly. I am not sure what her stride measured but it looked like she was in air forever when she ran?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Her Martha Washington at OP is breathtaking, Was at Haskell in paddock with her and she was such a grand filly. I am not sure what her stride measured but it looked like she was in air forever when she ran?

No no no. Being in the air is bad.

Or so I read elsewhere.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No no no. Being in the air is bad.

Or so I read elsewhere.

I'll try to explain this to you, despite the obviousness of your trolling.

A horse, or any animal for that matter, accelerates when they push off the ground. The force that drives a horse forward comes from the legs pushing off the surface of the track.

When an animal is completely off the ground, they are no longer accelerating and in fact, are decelerating. Do you really believe that if a horse stayed in the air for five seconds on each stride, they'd be going even faster?

It's kind of like a batter in baseball trying to dive into first base to beat out the throw. They actually make it easier to be out by launching into the air and slowing down.

I can prove this to you mathematically (via simple physics) if you like, but I know you'll just reject it because Rachel Alexandra beat a sprinter.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'll try to explain this to you, despite the obviousness of your trolling.

A horse, or any animal for that matter, accelerates when they push off the ground. The force that drives a horse forward comes from the legs pushing off the surface of the track.

When an animal is completely off the ground, they are no longer accelerating and in fact, are decelerating. Do you really believe that if a horse stayed in the air for five seconds on each stride, they'd be going even faster?

It's kind of like a batter in baseball trying to dive into first base to beat out the throw. They actually make it easier to be out by launching into the air and slowing down.

I can prove this to you mathematically (via simple physics) if you like, but I know you'll just reject it because Rachel Alexandra beat a sprinter.

So you are saying the shorter the stride the more advantageous for developing constant speed? The problem with the math here is that while they are in air they aren't spending energy and are covering more ground. IF they had gas tanks that didn't deplete this would be fine but they do. As such the longer the stride to cover the most distance, typically enhances a horses ability to run faster, because the next push is done with the potential for more force. If you aren't exhausting your energy you can use it further up the track to push harder again. This seems to be why a longer stride is more favorable.