American Pharoah...

DaTruth · #1 04-29-2015, 12:38 PM

Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.

SundayStar · #2 04-29-2015, 02:07 PM

if you're leaving him off, all i can say is good luck.

Thunder Gulch · #3 04-29-2015, 02:13 PM

I'm not leaving him off the top, but would be much better off if he runs 3rd.

Indian Charlie · #4 04-29-2015, 03:02 PM

I have seen a few mention that AP will have trouble rating behind Dortmund.

Do people really believe that's a likely scenario???

Barring weird post position draws, I gotta believe AP will be in front of Dortmund.

DaTruth · #5 04-29-2015, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Barring weird post position draws, I gotta believe AP will be in front of Dortmund.

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

RHT2004 · #6 04-29-2015, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

I think every horse needs that. You need to get position moving forward in any race, not just the Derby. AP seems like the faster horse early.

Indian Charlie · #7 04-29-2015, 07:37 PM

For those that believe AP's numbers aren't that great relative to the field, he does have the best rag # by .75.

Hell, even Bolo's best dirt rag is faster than Dortmunds.

Indian Charlie · #8 04-29-2015, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

Not tactics, but just raw ability.

He's just so much better.

blackthroatedwind · #9 05-01-2015, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Not tactics, but just raw ability.

He's just so much better.

Based on what?

OldDog · #10 04-30-2015, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Do you think that as a matter of tactics, or it's just that you think AP has more early zip than Dortmund? Given his size, Dortmund will need to take a prominent position early to avoid traffic troubles and risk getting stopped.

I thought this, too, but listening to Mig talk about Dortmund yesterday gives me hope that he can get stopped yet get back into his huge stride quickly.

I'm still trying to figure out if we're looking at a sensible opening half or a pace meltdown.

Kitan · #11 05-01-2015, 10:47 AM

I get that he is picture perfect in the mornings, but how does a 5f work translate to 10f?

Usain Bolt has a magnificent, effortless stride. He looks great doing it over 100m and 200m, and he's even won recently at 400m. But could he do it over 600m? 800m? Against Rushida?

I think he'll be struggling in the last furlong. I don't think he can stagger home fast enough to win.

TheSpyder · #12 04-29-2015, 04:40 PM

From what I've seen, he'll win and so will I.

If he's still getting better, then look out field. Yes, bad trip and bad racing luck may cause him to lose, but rather that than watching him trounce which I think he will.

ADJMK · #13 04-29-2015, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.

Sitting in the clear off a 45.4 half doesn't get a check mark from me either.Sure he relaxed. Didn't expect him to be running off into those fractions.

Sightseek · #14 04-29-2015, 04:55 PM

I love the post he drew.

alysheba4 · #15 04-29-2015, 04:59 PM

which is?

Sightseek · #16 04-29-2015, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alysheba4

which is?

18

alysheba4 · #17 04-29-2015, 05:05 PM

thanks, dont like that at all, better than 1 or 2 but damn he is in the grandstands.

knickslions2 · #18 04-29-2015, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alysheba4

thanks, dont like that at all, better than 1 or 2 but damn he is in the grandstands.

It's a great draw for him

OldDog · #19 04-30-2015, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I love the post he drew.

I think it's good for him. He'll break fast, as will many, should be able to avoid a lot of the early jostling and even if he's 3-4 wide in the clubhouse turn he'll be able to deal with that.

If the post draw affected my picks at first glance, it's that I'm paying more attention to Far Right and thinking I will want to include him in my exotics. Looking for Mike Smith to make a left turn straightaway, save ground, and begin picking them off on the far turn.

IrishofNDMan · #20 04-30-2015, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldDog

I think it's good for him. He'll break fast, as will many, should be able to avoid a lot of the early jostling and even if he's 3-4 wide in the clubhouse turn he'll be able to deal with that.

If the post draw affected my picks at first glance, it's that I'm paying more attention to Far Right and thinking I will want to include him in my exotics. Looking for Mike Smith to make a left turn straightaway, save ground, and begin picking them off on the far turn.

My thoughts exactly, I can just picture far right and mike smith taking the lead in deep stretch.