American Pharoah...

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think he will be overbet and will not be using him. That said, like Dellinger I hope Am Pharoah and/or Dortmund end up on the rail.

--Dunbar

I agree 100%

[NTamm1215]

Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.

[Thunder Gulch]

Betting against, but not because I think he can't be a star

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.

There will be millions of dollars bet on horses because people like their name or color or 14 is their lucky number, that will counter balance the hype substantially. Remember on paper he is at least the 2nd most likely winner and has such pitching him to win is a dubious prop. Is he not an "A" on every smart handicappers vertical wager? Would you ever want to lose a pick 3/4/6 because you pitched AP because of hype and deflated odds?

I wouldnt bet him to win either regardless if I think he wins by 6

[DaTruth]

Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.

[SundayStar]

if you're leaving him off, all i can say is good luck.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm not leaving him off the top, but would be much better off if he runs 3rd.

[Indian Charlie]

I have seen a few mention that AP will have trouble rating behind Dortmund.

Do people really believe that's a likely scenario???

Barring weird post position draws, I gotta believe AP will be in front of Dortmund.

[TheSpyder]

From what I've seen, he'll win and so will I.

If he's still getting better, then look out field. Yes, bad trip and bad racing luck may cause him to lose, but rather that than watching him trounce which I think he will.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.

Sitting in the clear off a 45.4 half doesn't get a check mark from me either.Sure he relaxed. Didn't expect him to be running off into those fractions.

[Sightseek]

I love the post he drew.

[alysheba4]

which is?

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I love the post he drew.

I think it's good for him. He'll break fast, as will many, should be able to avoid a lot of the early jostling and even if he's 3-4 wide in the clubhouse turn he'll be able to deal with that.

If the post draw affected my picks at first glance, it's that I'm paying more attention to Far Right and thinking I will want to include him in my exotics. Looking for Mike Smith to make a left turn straightaway, save ground, and begin picking them off on the far turn.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.

My thoughts exactly. I am ordering a Frosted shake.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.

I agree with you, Nick. I also think that Dortmund deserves to be favored over AP.